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The market has been rallying furiously over the past several days on earnings. Is this the Promised Land or more false hope?

It’s just the kickoff of the third-quarter earnings season and the nation’s major banks have reported. These banks are considered bellwethers for the U.S. economy and numbers are better than expected. The results are reviving hope among investors.

These are crazy times. This pandemic-riddled year isn’t done with us yet. In fact, Covid cases are rising and many states are reinstating new batches of lockdown restrictions. At the same time, we’re less than a week away from an election with a high risk of a contested result and the ensuing uncertainty.

At some point, we will get past the election and the pandemic. The economy should boom and the market will be free to rise. But things could still get awfully dicey in the weeks and months before we get to the Promised Land.



In this issue, I highlight a high-income stock that is ideal for the current situation. The business is benefitting mightily from the pandemic. It’s a defensive stock that should continue to perform well amidst the volatility. Yet, it should also be a star in the post-pandemic market.



Not only does this stock pay a high dividend, but it attracts high call premiums as well. It is one of the very few stocks that is well worth buying in the current situation.

Last week we bemoaned the fact that the market had not yet decisively broken out to the upside, and indeed, most major indexes were below resistance and close to their longer-term 200-day moving averages. However, last week, leading stocks separated themselves from the pack—even during days the indexes were flat, the best stocks cranked out solid gains. We know that a pullback or correction could occur at a moment’s notice, yet we remain optimistic the best is yet to come. This week’s Top Ten reflects the broad bullish action among leading stocks last week, as we have a good mix of growth and commodity, big and small. Our favorite of the week is MasterCard (MA), a big-cap leader of this market advance that reacted very well to earnings last month, and has since quieted down beautifully. You can start a position in this area, and don’t worry about the high share price—just buy fewer shares.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ARG (ARG)	0.00	54-58	-
CLR (CLR)	0.00	47-52	-
EGLE (EGLE)	0.00	30-32	-
FLR (FLR)	0.00	185-195	-
GU (GU)	0.00	15-17	-
MA (MA)	0.00	270-290	-
MTL (MTL)	0.00	155-165	-
PXD (PXD)	0.00	64-68	-
UNT (UNT)	0.00	69-73	-
WTI (WTI)	0.00	46-50	-

Earnings have been terrific again. Rising corporate profits have so far kept stocks out of correction territory. But earnings season is ending. And problems are growing.

The first month of 2022 is in the books. And it wasn’t good. It was the worst month since March of 2020.

Earnings might be saving this market. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the market needs saving, and for good reasons.

So far, with just about 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting, earnings have been better than expected, as usual. It’s a tough quarter considering inflation, the war, and covid in China. But companies have been resilient so far. And market performance has been upgraded from falling to floundering.

It’s earnings season.

This should be an interesting one. Earnings have saved and rejuvenated the bull market throughout the pandemic recovery. Can this earnings season save the current floundering market?



Stocks are up today because of optimism from the few companies that have reported so far. The expectations are for just 4.5% earnings growth on average for S&P 500 companies. Of course, earnings almost always exceed expectations. But this will still be the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 2020 as there are much tougher comparisons to the opened-up economy a year ago.

The market hit correction territory last week. And it’s gone nowhere since.

The Russia/Ukraine situation continues to plague stocks. But the crisis really hasn’t dragged the market down much. Sure, it pulled stocks into correction territory, but they didn’t have far to go.

Let the good times roll!

A good market just got better. A petering rally has been reinvigorated. And the good times may continue to roll through January.

Well, the results are in for the first half of the year. And they’re very good. The S&P 500 soared an impressive 14.5% in the first six months of 2024. That’s a 29% annual pace. And it follows a 22% market return in 2023.

But I believe it is unlikely that the S&P will finish the year up 29%. That would be an epic year, but there are still a lot of challenges, like interest rates near the highest level in two decades. That means market returns must at least flatten out somewhat going forward. It’s also true that the technology rally has petered out in the last few weeks.

The market took a jab to the face last week, but it still looks good. It’s still a strong market. But one that is showing some vulnerability.


After a great first half and a strong July, the market pulled back 2% last week, reversing most of the July gains. The culprit was a Biden administration announcement of new AI chip export restrictions to China. That news also combined with a perceived likelihood of a Trump presidency and the possibility of further trade frictions with China. The technology sector, and semiconductor stocks in particular, took it on the chin.

The market has been fantastic. But it was driven higher by technology. Now, technology is rolling over. Will the market roll over too, or will the neglected sectors pick up the slack?

There isn’t much not to like about this market. After a strong first half of the year, the market is having a great July. And the rally is broadening out. It’s not just technology anymore.

The market officially entered a “correction” last week when the S&P fell 10% from the 52-week high on a closing basis. Now, it’s largely up to the Fed to determine where the market goes next.

The Fed meets on Wednesday and will decide on the Fed Funds rate. They are widely expected to leave the rate unchanged and then indicate they might raise it in the future. But the main event isn’t the Fed Funds rate. It’s the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.

The new year is starting with big momentum. The S&P 500 had a torrid late-year rally where it soared about 16% between late October and the end of the year. Stocks closed out the year with nine straight up weeks, the longest streak since 2004.

After the stellar finish to last year, the market rally is continuing, sort of.

The S&P 500 is up for the year. But it’s only up 1.69% and participation is far less broad than it was. Technology stocks are driving the market higher but most of the other sectors are down. The AI euphoria is continuing, but the interest rate rally is gone.

It’s earnings season again! And this one should be more important than most.

Earnings are, of course, a big deal for the individual company. But in addition to company-specific fundamentals, Wall Street will be carefully watching what company earnings indicate about the macro environment.

We recently received a very interesting proposal from a Cabot Wealth Advisory reader who suggested an essay contest with a subscription to a Cabot newsletter as the prize for the best entry. We have never done such a contest, but the reader had obviously thought through the details, and made a very persuasive case. And we liked the idea so much that we’ve decided to hold the contest! We love competitions and we like the idea of asking Cabot Wealth Advisory readers to share their stories and we think others will enjoy reading them. The entries will give us an opportunity to get to know you better, dear reader. And the winner will have a chance to get back into the market with our best advice because the prize is a FREE one-year subscription to a Cabot newsletter!

The market has closed lower for three straight weeks and declined about 9% from the August high as we head into September. Where do we go from here?

The market is having trouble deciding. It’s still unclear what the primary threat or driver will be. Is the main problem inflation or recession? It remains to be seen if inflation has indeed peaked and if it’s headed lower. The state of the economy is also unclear. Is this a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction? It is also an open question if the economy remains buoyant or is declining from here.