It’s been another choppy week with not much net movement in the indexes. As of this morning, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and NYSE Composite are all flat on the week—though in the bond market, there was a big move, with five- and 10-year Treasury yields up 0.2% to 0.25%.
The story remains mostly the same: The evidence remains mostly positive, with nearly all major indexes and most stocks and leading stocks in intermediate-term uptrends. That said, the evidence is probably less positive than it was a month ago, with many leaders doing more chopping than advancing, and that goes for things like the Nasdaq and IBD 50 Index (a growth measure) too, which are unchanged or down a bit since early February.
At this point, it’s less about seeing any major yellow flags and simply thinking the green lights have dimmed a bit in the past month—besides the occasional earnings blowup (which happens no matter the environment), we haven’t seen much in the way of huge-volume cracks of support from leading titles, while fresher names have emerged in recent weeks and are still acting fine.
As for the indexes, even the aforementioned Nasdaq and IBD 50 are hanging around their 25-day lines this morning—hardly the end of days.
All told, we’ve essentially trimmed our sails a bit in recent weeks (more sells and partial profits while raising stops) as fewer names have been going up, but from here, it’s just a matter of taking it day by day: If leaders really start to crack support (like their 50-day lines), we’ll pare back further, but if this ends up being a choppy pause that refreshes, we’ll hold onto our winners and pounce on more fresh leaders that should take the market higher.
Right here, we’re again leaving our Market Monitor at a level 7, though keep your eyes open—after five weeks of ups and downs, odds favor the market making up its mind in the near future.
POTENTIAL BUYS
Interest rates have spiked but we’re impressed with how Azek (AZEK) has held up, with a modest pullback not even to its 25-day line. If you don’t own any, a nibble here or down to 46-47, with a stop near 43, seems like a solid risk/reward.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has also been a cool customer of late, with an orderly exhale as the 25-day line (now above 106) catches up. We’re OK starting a position here or on further weakness, with a stop near the rising 50-day line (now above 98).
SUGGESTED SELLS
Partial Sells
It’s not a huge gain, but blue chip American Express (AXP) has enjoyed a solid run since our recommendation but at this point has been running basically without interruption since the market’s October lows. We advise selling some shares up here and trailing a stop for the rest.
If you haven’t taken any off the table, we think ringing the register on some Celsius (CELH) makes sense, with the stock spiking up from our recommendation under 70 to round-number resistance near 100 yesterday before meeting with some selling. Overall, we like the action, but trimming and holding the rest makes sense.
Full Sells
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) – cracking 50-day line after early March selling
Dell Technologies (DELL) – we took partial profits last week, and today we’ll take the rest of our money off the table; it looks OK overall but the stock went out of trend on the upside and then quickly came under pressure.
Lennar (LEN) – not totally broken, but yesterday’s earnings reaction was a yellow flag; we’ll sell on today’s bounce.
SUGGESTED STOPS
American Express (AXP) near 203
Ascendis Pharmaceuticals (ASND) near 140
ASML Inc. (ASML) near 915
Axon Enterprise (AXON) near 276
Cava Group (CAVA) near 51
Confluent (CFLT) near 29
Eli Lilly (LLY) near 710
Freshpet (FRPT) near 96
Lennar (LEN) near 152.5
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) near 99
Natera (NTRA) near 75
Nextracker (NXT) near 53.5
Nvidia (NVDA) near 700
Taiwan Semi (TSM) near 125
Toll Brothers (TOL) near 107.5
United Rentals (URI) near 622
XPO Inc (XPO) near 108.5
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