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Quant Trader
Expert-Level Options for Sophisticated Traders

COI Quant Trader Issue: March 11, 2024

The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 8.3% YTD and 25.1% since its near-term low back on October 27, 2023. It can’t be argued that we are witnessing something well outside of normal distribution.


If we go back to October 27 and take a quick look at the probability of the current move, we can clearly see that the probability at the time for SPY climbing above 510 (SPY currently sits at 511.72) was 0.93%. That’s right – 0.93%! So yes, again, this is definitely a move well outside of the norm.

Weekly Commentary

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The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 8.3% YTD and 25.1% since its near-term low back on October 27, 2023. It can’t be argued that we are witnessing something well outside of normal distribution.

If we go back to October 27 and take a quick look at the probability of the current move, we can clearly see that the probability at the time for SPY climbing above 510 (SPY currently sits at 511.72) was 0.93%. That’s right – 0.93%! So yes, again, this is definitely a move well outside of the norm.

COI_QT_031024_SPY_historicmove.png

And it’s the reason I will be looking at the volatility matrix (see below) to help me focus on opportunities for the week ahead.

I continue to take the stance, based on numerous statistics, that while we could certainly see a short-term continuation of the current rally, the probability of a move to the downside is high. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts at these levels as we head into triple witching (expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, single stock options) on March 15.

As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.

Current Portfolio

Open Trades

Open DateTickerStrategyTradeOpen PriceCurrent PriceCurrent ProbabilityDelta
1/16/2024SPYIron CondorMarch 15, 2024 510/505 - 440/435 $0.66 $3.78 26.57% - 99.45%-0.15
Open DateClosed DateTickerStrategy TradeOpen PriceClosing PriceReturn
6/2/20226/13/2022SPYBear Call SpreadJuly 15, 2022 440/445 $0.70 $0.05 14.94%
6/8/20226/17/2022XOPBear Call SpreadJuly 15, 2022 190/195$0.70 $0.04 15.21%
6/22/20227/13/2022SPYBear Call SpreadJuly 29, 2022 405/410$0.75 $0.35 8.70%
6/30/20227/25/2022IWMIron CondorAugust 19, 2022 195/200 - 145/140$0.70 $0.34 7.76%
7/8/20227/28/2022GLDBull Put SpreadAugust 19, 2022 155/150 $0.60 $0.16 9.65%
7/14/20228/11/2022SPYIron CondorAugust 19, 2022 417/412 - 335/330$0.70 $4.10 -68.00%
8/1/20228/29/2022SPYBear Call SpreadSeptember 16, 2022 439/444$0.70 $0.07 14.42%
8/11/20228/29/2022DIABear Call SpreadSeptember 23, 2022 350/325$0.75 $0.08 15.47%
8/11/20229/8/2022IWMIron CondorSeptember 23, 2022 220/215 - 173/168$0.77 $0.57 4.17%
9/7/20229/9/2022QQQBull Put SpreadOctober 21, 2022 260/255$0.62 $0.30 6.84%
9/9/20229/15/2022SPYBear Call SpreadOctober 21, 2022 430/435$0.75 $0.25 11.11%
9/13/202210/17/2022IWMIron CondorOctober 21, 2022 208/203 - 163/158$0.77 $0.30 10.40%
10/3/202210/25/2022SPYBull Put SpreadNovember 18, 2022 325/320 $0.54 $0.09 9.89%
10/4/202211/2/2022IWMIron CondorNovember 18, 2022 198/203 - 143/138$0.64 $0.32 6.84%
10/6/202211/2/2022SPYBear Call SpreadNovember 18, 2022 412/416$0.43 $0.28 3.90%
11/16/202211/28/2022IWMIron CondorDecember 16, 2022 205/200 - 162/157$0.75 $0.24 11.36%
11/10/202212/6/2022SPYBear Call SpreadDecember 16, 2022 420/425$0.65 $0.14 11.36%
12/1/202212/6/2022SPYBear Call SpreadJanuary 20, 2023 435/440$0.67 $0.18 10.86%
12/13/202212/15/2022SPYBear Call SpreadJanuary 20, 2023 430/435$0.54 $0.17 7.99%
12/7/20231/6/2023IWMIron CondorJanuary 20, 2023 202/198 - 160/156$0.70 $0.06 19.00%
1/4/20232/1/2023IWMIron CondorFebruary 17, 2023 200/195 - 154/149$0.65 $2.00 -27.00%
1/6/20232/2/2023SPYBear Call SpreadFebruary 17, 2023 415/420 $0.60 $2.50 -38.00%
2/2/20232/15/2023SPYBear Call SpreadMarch 17, 2023 440/445$0.63 $0.15 10.62%
2/10/20232/22/2023DIABear Call SpreadMarch 31, 2023 355/360$0.70 $0.17 11.86%
2/2/20233/1/2023IWMIron CondorMarch 17, 2023 175/180 - 215/220$0.72 $0.51 4.38%
3/6/20233/13/2023DIABear Call SpreadApril 21, 2023 350/355$0.85 $0.17 15.74%
2/23/20233/28/2023SPYIron CondorApril 21, 2023 435/430 - 350/345$0.80 $0.15 14.94%
3/23/20234/11/2023DIABear Call SpreadApril 21, 2023 338/443$0.62 $2.05 -28.60%
3/23/20234/19/2023IWMIron CondorMay 19, 2023 196/191 - 147/142$0.83 $0.23 13.64%
4/12/20234/21/2023DIABear Call SpreadMay 19, 2023 350/355$0.82 $0.44 8.23%
4/21/20235/2/2023SPYIron CondorJune 16, 2023 440/435 - 365/360$0.95 $0.63 6.84%
4/24/20235/10/2023DIABear Call SpreadJune 16, 2023 354/359$0.72 $0.22 11.11%
5/5/20235/24/023SPYBear Call SpreadJune 16, 2023 430/435$0.72 $0.35 7.99%
6/15/20236/22/2023SPYBear Call SpreadAugust 18, 2023 465/470$0.70 $0.24 10.13%
5/26/20236/23/2023IWMIron CondorJuly 21, 2023 191/196 - 156/151$0.79 $0.50 6.15%
5/31/20237/12/2023QQQBear Call SpreadJuly 21, 2023 375/380$0.60 $1.80 -31.60%
6/30/20238/7/2023SPYBear Call SpreadAugust 18, 2023 462/466$0.52 $0.23 7.82%
8/4/20238/11/2023SPYBear Call SpreadSeptember 15, 2023 470/475$0.65 $0.20 9.90%
8/17/20239/13/2023SPYIron CondorOctober 20, 2023 475/470 - 390/385$0.72 $0.25 10.38%
9/6/202310/11/2023IWMIron CondorOctober 20, 2023 204/199 - 169/164$0.62 $0.19 9.41%
* 9/29/202310/27/2023SPYBear Call SpreadNovember 17, 2023 452/457$0.74 $0.03 16.60%
*10/6/202311/3/2023SPYBull Put SpreadNovember 17, 2023 408/403$0.58 $0.03 12.36%
* 10/27/202311/3/2023SPYBear Call SpreadNovember 17, 2023 430/435$0.58 $3.50 -33.20%
10/31/202311/14/2023SPYIron CondorDecember 15, 2023 450/445 - 380/375$0.77 $3.00 -44.60%
11/6/202312/8/2023SPYBear Call SpreadDecember 15, 2023 456/461$0.58 $3.08 -50.00%
12/1/20231/10/2024SPYBear Call SpreadJanuary 19, 2024 475/480$0.75 $2.75 -40.00%
1/23/20242/21/2024QQQBear Call SpreadMarch 1, 2024 445/450 $0.60 $0.20 8.70%
35.67%

Volatility Talk

I’ve decided to add a matrix of the various IV ranks and levels of implied volatility for all of the ETFs that currently reside on our weekly watch list. This gives us a good picture for the ETFs that we need to focus on each week.

*I’ll be discussing the volatility matrix, and its importance, in our upcoming webinar on Thursday. Please come with any questions. If you can’t make the webinar, no worries, send me your questions and I’ll gladly cover all of them in the webinar.

COI_QT_031024_volmatrix.png

After a brief stint above 15, the VIX closed the week at 14.74. There is no doubt that the VIX remains complacent and will be so until we see a sustained push to the 18-20 level and even then we are just entering “normal” levels of volatility. Remember, with an election in the not-so-distant future and in the midst of seasonal weakness, I do expect volatility to see a climb towards normal levels (18-20). As I’ve stated for weeks, it’s my plan to add a volatility-based trade to take advantage of any volatility expansion over the course of the next eight to 10 months.

COI_QT_031024_VIX.png

Weekly High-Probability Mean Reversion Indicator

Below is my watch list of ETFs and stocks with the most liquid options headed into the week of March 11, 2024.

Here are the various levels I use to determine if an ETF is in an oversold or overbought state.

Very Overboughta reading greater than or equal to 80.0
Overboughtgreater than or equal to 60.0
Neutralbetween 40 to 60
Oversoldless than or equal to 40.0
Very Oversoldless than or equal to 20.0.

Each week I also include the current implied volatility (IV) and IV Rank. I look for an IV rank above 40, preferably higher.

ETF Watch List – Trade Ideas

Exchange Traded FundTicker Symbol IVIV Rank HPMR Oversold - Overbought
ARK Innovation ETFARKK41.032.457.2
ProShares Bitcoin ETFBITO81.910073.9
SPDR Dow JonesDIA14.023.948.2
iShares MSCI Emerging MarketsEEM15.112.464.8
iShares MSCI EAFEEFA12.09.475.8
iShares MSCI Mexico ETFEWW22.921.838.6
iShares MSCI BrazilEWZ23.931.333.2
iShares China Large-CapFXI31.938.751.5
Vaneck Gold MinersGDX47.163.280.4
SPDR Gold GLD14.65794.2
iShares High-YieldHYG7.32461.4
iShares Russell 2000IWM23.64265.9
SPDR Regional BankKRE34.424.566.2
Vaneck Oil ServicesOIH28.87.268.5
Invesco Nasdaq 100QQQ17.929.151.2
iShares Silver TrustSLV26.130.975.7
VanEck SemiconductorSMH31.796.661.8
SPDR S&P 500 SPY 13.32059.8
iShares 20+ Treasury BondTLT15.07.867.1
United States Oil FundUSO32.518.548.8
ProShares Ultra VIX ShortUVXY90.323.963.6
CBOE Market Volatility IndexVIX80.125.262.9
Barclays S&P 500 VIX ETNVXX62.726.363.9
SPDR BiotechXLB13.922.672.9
SPDR Energy Select XLE20.61.872.8
SPDR FinancialsXLF15.911.174.6
SPDR UtilitiesXLU21.524.373
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas ExplorerXOP26.35.972.1
SPDR Retail XRT29.727.954

Stock Watch List – Trade Ideas

Stock - Quant TraderTicker Symbol IVIV Rank HPMR Oversold - Overbought
AppleAAPL23.743.024
Bank of AmericaBAC26.113.878.1
Bristol-Myers SquibbBMY25.962.083.2
CitigroupC26.215.473.6
CaterpillarCAT25.423.569.6
ComcastCMCSA39.440.956.3
CostcoCOST29.738.136.8
Cisco SystemsCSCO18.525.862.8
ChevronCVX21.617.142
DisneyDIS24.725.451.7
Duke EnergyDUK18.320.070
Gilead SciencesGILD25.032.970.2
General MotorsGM31.712.740.8
IntelINTC39.440.549.7
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ17.448.347.4
JPMorganJPM21.318.771.4
Coca-ColaKO13.820.938.1
Altria GroupMO22.630.569.1
MerckMRK19.845.431
Morgan StanleyMS25.017.052.3
MicrosoftMSFT21.123.646.2
NextEra EnergyNEE32.250.772.6
NvidiaNVDA50.096.865.1
PfizerPFE27.452.456.1
PayPalPYPL36.226.447.1
StarbucksSBUX22.23233.1
AT&TT27.821.359.8
VerizonVZ22.031.730.6
Walgreens Boots AllianceWBA54.289.146.8
Wells FargoWFC25.714.183.3
WalmartWMT1735.266.7
Exxon MobilXOM22.39.475.6

Weekly Trade Discussion: Open Positions

*Portfolio updated every Monday

Iron Condor: SPY March 15, 2024, 510/505 – 440/435
Original trade published on 1-16-2024 (click to see original alert)

Background: At the time of the trade, SPY was trading for roughly 474. We sold the March 15, 2024, SPY 510/505 – 440/435 iron condor for $0.66. The expected range or move was 455 to 494. The probability of success at the time of the trade was 91.07% on the call side and 86.77% on the put side.

Current Thoughts: The SPY now sits at 511.43, just $1 lower at this time last week. With just 5 days left until the end of the March 15 expiration, SPY sits above our short call strike of 505. As I stated last week, if we expect to take a profit off the table a near-term decline needs to occur. We still have a probability of touch of 58.15%, but we will need to see a significant push lower over the next few days, otherwise we will need to close our position and move on to the next opportunity.

Call Side:

COI_QT_031024_SPY_bearcall.png

Put Side:

COI_QT_031024_SPY_bullput.png

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.


The next Cabot Options Institute – Quant Trader issue will be

published on March 18, 2024.


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