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Top Ten Trader
Discover the Market’s Strongest Stocks
Issues
From its July high to last Friday’s low, the Nasdaq pulled back almost nearly 9%, which is generally in line with some other “first corrections” in bull moves we’ve seen in the past, and the bounce since then is a good first step. That said, there’s still much more to prove here: At this point, all of the major indexes we track are below their 50-day lines, leadership-type stocks have been hit hard and interest rates remain an issue. Ideally the market begins to get back in gear right quick, but we need to see more than a couple of up days to conclude that. We’ll pull our Market Monitor down to a level 5 while remaining flexible for whatever comes.

This week’s list is a mixed bag, with something for everyone. Our Top Pick is a tech name that’s always had good numbers, and after many starts-and-stops this year, appears as though it’s finally changing character.
The market’s nascent downturn remains in effect, with the short-term trend of most indexes and sectors pointed down and with growth stocks bringing up the rear (though today was a good first step to reverse that). Even so, the pullback from a top-down perspective continues to look normal, so we’re not hiding in our storm cellar, either—we’re hanging onto our resilient, profitable stocks while nibbling here or there on high-odds opportunities. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.

One of the more encouraging things of the past three weeks is that we’re not having trouble finding good-potential names with solid charts, and this week’s list is no different. Our Top Pick is a great growth story and now, after a couple of bad years, all of the firm’s metrics are pointed in the right direction.
After two-plus months where sellers really couldn’t make a dent in the market, last week was a change, with the major indexes down and, more important to us, many growth stocks decisively cracked near- to intermediate-term support. On the flip side, the vast majority of the top-down evidence remains positive, some growth names are holding their own and a bunch of industry, energy, transport and other cyclical names are still acting fine. Put it together and we think it makes sense to pull in your horns a bit for now, but we’re also not selling wholesale, as the odds continue to strongly favor the market (and many leaders) working its way higher once this selling squall passes. We’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 6.

Interestingly, despite the market’s hiccup, it wasn’t hard to find a bunch of solid charts (and some solid setups) in a variety of sectors, as you’ll see in this week’s list. Our Top Pick is a cookie-cutter retailer that looks to have finally emerged from a long bottoming effort.
The major indexes all closed last week near their highs, which is one big factor keeping the top-down evidence very bullish; nothing has changed with our big picture positive thoughts. That said, right now, we don’t think the situation is as strong as the indexes suggest—just looking at a variety of names, it’s clear many are consolidating even as the S&P and Nasdaq tested new high ground late last week. Again, we’re not saying that’s a big bugaboo, but right now, we continue to think being more discerning when looking for entry points makes sense, as does pruning some laggards if you have them. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has something for everyone, with a decent amount of cyclical exposure but also some true blue growth names as well. Our Top Pick is helping to lead a new group move in metal stocks in general (and copper in particular).
After a non-stop run for two-plus months, we’re finally seeing a bit of sloppiness in the Nasdaq and some growth stocks that have had huge runs— combining the recent action with the fact that the advance has been going on 12 weeks and earnings season is upon us, and further stumbles are certainly possible in growth. All that said, it’s been more about rotation than outright selling, as the broad market has actually picked up steam, and none of this alters our big-picture bullish thoughts, as the top-down evidence remains overwhelmingly positive. Put it together, and we’re still bullish, but we’ll pull in our Market Monitor a notch to a level 7 to reflect some of the near-term wobbles.

This week’s list reflects the market action, with more non-tech names, be it cyclical plays, drug firms or even a bull market-related business. Our Top Pick is a bull market stock that has just come alive after a long bottoming effort.
There’s no doubt the market continues to keep investors on their toes, and some further discomfort in the short term is certainly possible after the recent run. It’s also a decent bet that earnings season, which is now ramping up, will present a few potholes. But those are the trees—if you look at the forest, all of the bullish factors are still in place, whether it’s the uptrend in the major indexes, the solid action among most leading stocks, the sluggishness of defensive stocks and, more recently, the strength of the broad market (including five straight days of 2-to-1 NYSE breadth). We remain bullish and expect higher prices—we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 8.

This week’s list has a very broad mix of names, including everything from giant blue chips to more speculative small caps. Our Top Pick is in the right area (big-cap growth) and is trying to emerge from a tight consolidation. Earnings are out in a couple of weeks, so start small and build if the breakout works.
After a heady run, further short-term wobbles are possible, even likely, as the market and many stocks digest their May/June gains and as fear levels rise with interest rates. That said, to this point the consolidation in the major indexes and leading stocks has been completely acceptable, with very little abnormal action. If we start to see some names crack meaningful support, we’ll knock our Market Monitor down a notch or two, but today we’ll keep it at a level 8, as the odds continue to favor this being a normal rest period that will give way to higher prices.

This week’s list has a handful of names that have recently got going despite the market’s shenanigans. Our Top Pick this week is from a beaten-down group that’s come to life, possibly signaling the start of a group move.
Overall, the market’s action remains as close to pristine as you could hope for. Under the hood, there has been a touch of rotation, with some growth stocks chopping around while cyclical, construction and materials names perk up. All in all, we wouldn’t be surprised if growth continued to catch its breath, as the recent pullback was very brief, but that’s short-term nitpicking: While dips and potholes will come, the bottom line is that the vast majority of evidence is bullish, so you should be, too. We’ll bump our Market Monitor up to a level 8, and think adding exposure (ideally on dips) makes sense.

This week’s list reflects the broadening we’re seeing out there, with a few tech names but many others from other corners of the market. Our Top Pick is a long-term winner in the aerospace and defense field whose stock just broke out.
The much-anticipated market dip finally arrived last week, and so far, when you look at the leadership of this market—the Nasdaq and leading individual stocks—the action has been completely normal, and in fact, seems to be producing some higher-odds entry points as names dip toward support. Once again, though, we need to keep a close eye on the broad market—the intermediate-term trend remains up, but it’s getting close to the edge, with another bad week possibly putting the broad market back in the soup. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7 today but we’re watching things closely in case weak breadth causes the selling pressures to build.

This week’s list has a growing number of pullback-related setups. Our Top Pick quacks like a new technology leader that’s pulled back reasonably after a strong rally. It’s volatile, so start small and use a loose leash.
The market has been in something of a takeoff or lockout rally, but near-term, we’re finally seeing some profit taking set in; coming into today, the Nasdaq was 9% above its 50-day line, so some wobbles are to be expected. Even so, we’re not changing our advice any at this point—we like to play the odds, and right now the odds favor (a) near-term trickiness but also (b) that pullbacks should generally lead to higher prices. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7 and see how it goes.

While growth could be set for a dip, the broadening of the rally is seeing more non-growth names actually show strength. Our Top Pick is one of many cyclical-type stocks that, after a big hiccup in March with the banking worries, has come alive amidst a vacuum of selling pressure. Dips of a couple of points would be tempting.
If you had written a script of what you wanted to see from the market a few weeks back, most of that has come true; simply put, the evidence continues to improve. Now, of course, things aren’t perfect—we’re seeing a bit of rotation out there that could continue to play out, and there are some potential leaders that are getting wobbly; throw in the fact people are feeling more comfortable and we’re not advising anyone to go hog wild. But with the evidence continuing to impress, we’ll bump our Market Monitor up another notch to a level 7.

This week’s list is heavy on medical and infrastructure-type names, with a smattering of other areas, too. Our Top Pick won’t be the fastest horse but should be a straight-on play on what is looking like a building, construction and infrastructure boom.
The market finished solidly in the black thanks to a strong end to last week; interestingly, while the intermediate-term trend is still neutral overall, a couple of broad up days from here could kick it into the green. Even better is the action of leading stocks, with more names emerging and, importantly, more names holding their recent upmoves. To be clear, there’s still a lot of proving to do, but overall, we think the evidence has taken another step in the right direction—we’ll move up our Market Monitor to a level 6 and see what comes from here.

This week’s list has a ton of strong names and other good setups that could lift should the market continue to improve. Our Top Pick looks like the leader of the improving cybersecurity group, having lifted out of a long consolidation. Dips should be buyable.
Updates
After a couple of good weeks, the sellers reappeared after Labor Day and have driven the market (especially the broad market) lower. Coming into Friday, big-cap indexes were down 1.5% to 2%, while small- and mid-caps were off more than 3%.
It’s been a very solid week for the market, with a batch of so-so economic data and falling interest rates (the 10-year Treasury is down about 13 basis points on the week as we write this) bringing in the buyers. As of this morning, all of the indexes we track are up in the 2% to 3.5% range, with the Nasdaq leading the way.
It’s been a fairly wild week, which isn’t a surprise given the recent volatility, Nvidia’s earnings and this morning’s Jackson Hole Fed speech—as we write this morning (about 45 minutes after the Fed speech was released), most indexes are flat to down by 1% on the week, though the Nasdaq is up a bit more than 1%.
The sellers continued to do their work to the market this week, and instead of the selling being concentrated in “just” growth titles, the weakness is now spreading to most nooks and crannies of the market. Coming into today, all of the major indexes were lower by 2% to 4%, with the worst performers the broader (small- and mid-cap) indexes.
It’s been another mostly red week, with growth stocks again faring worst (though not nearly as bad as last week) but with most everything tilting into the red. Coming into today, most indexes are down marginally to just over 1%.
For the first time in about three months, this week saw the sellers really demonstrate some power—yes, the major indexes took some lumps (down 1% to 2.5% coming into today), but more important, we saw many stocks crack near- to intermediate-term support, especially on the growth side of things.
Thursday brought an eye-opening reversal in the market, with a big gap up on Meta’s earnings results followed by a sharp reversal as interest rates backed up, and that was the tell-tale day of the week. That said, coming into today, the major indexes are all flat-ish on the week and are obviously bouncing this morning, so hardly a disaster.
This week has brought a wave of rotation—after strong initial gains, the Nasdaq has reversed to minor losses on the week (coming into Friday), with the S&P 500 up less than 1%. Meanwhile, broader indexes are up in the 1.5% range on the week and, for individual stocks, we saw some of the hot mega-cap growth names get smacked around some, while the rest of the market held firm or pushed higher.
This week is a good reason why, despite having a few near-term worries during the past month (we thought another wobble was possible), we’ve remained focused on the bigger picture—that the market seemed to be emerging from a bear phase, so near-term wobbles were likely … but were also likely to give way to higher prices.
Despite the holiday trading action on Monday and no trading on Tuesday, things have been a bit dicey this week, with the major indexes (especially the broader indexes) down as the market’s old bugaboo—interest rates—spike toward new multi-year highs. Moreover, this week, we saw some leading stocks take hits as well, as some of the laggard areas of the market (like financial stocks) took the selling in stride.
It’s been a very nice snapback week for the market as a whole, with all of the major indexes up, led by the laggards of the prior week—the broader indexes—which have encouragingly pushed back toward (or in some cases out above) their recent highs, and the market is likely to build on its gains after this morning’s inflation report. All in all, this keeps the evidence positive: The market’s intermediate-term trend is up, and while the broad market has been having the occasional wobble, it’s still in the healthy camp.
The much-anticipated market pullback seems to have begun this week—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq look set to snap their streak of weekly gains, with each index down about 1.5% since a week ago as of this morning.
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.
Cabot Top Ten Trader is meant to be something where we do the first four or five steps of the process for you and then let you take it from there.
By following thse guidelines, we’ve always been able to get on board relatively early in each new bull cycle.
Guidelines to improve your investment results with Cabot Top Ten Trader.
The Cabot Top Ten Trader system evaluates price and relative performance of 8,000 charts each week to select the strongest momentum stocks.
A brief guide on using the Cabot Top Ten Trader.
This is a collection of tips on stock chart reading, something that’s key to Mike Cintolo’s growth stock methodology, but something few individual investors (and even professional investors) understand too well.
If you follow these rules, you’re sure to boost your portfolio’s results.
Here some of the most common questions Mike Cintolo gets from the readers of Cabot Top Ten Trader.