We could pretty much cut and paste last week’s write-up here, as nothing much has changed with the evidence, and thus, with our positioning—the primary evidence remains bullish, with the trends of the indexes pointed up, and the action of leading stocks remains very solid. With that said, the broad market is mostly marking time, while interest rates are testing key intermediate-term levels. Long story short, we’re still bullish and are keeping our Market Monitor at a level 8, but are being more discerning on the buy side.

This week’s list has everything from popular tech names to cyclical tech to development-stage biotech, though as mentioned above, we like that we’re seeing some big-volume moves. Our Top Pick has a history of trending in good times and looks set for a big turnaround.

The vast majority of our work is based on the trends of the major indexes and the action of leading stocks, and on those two fronts, things look very good; we’ve even seen the broad market perk up after a tough stretch, too, which helps the cause. About the only thing to worry about here is that ... there’s not much to worry about, and that many leading stocks are showing some near-term exhaustion patterns. Big picture, we’re moving our Market Monitor back to a level 8, but you should still keep your feet on the ground, looking for decent entry points in strong stocks.

This week’s list has a lot of stocks that not only have excellent overall charts but have either consolidated calmly for the past few weeks—or have shown outstanding buying volume in recent days. Our Top Pick is one of the latter, gapping up to new highs last week on earnings.

After a sour first week of the year, leading stocks snapped back very nicely last week, and when you add in the other encouraging intermediate-term vibes (trends of the indexes and most sectors are up), we remain bullish overall. That said, we’re also keeping our feet on the ground: The current advance is now about two and a half months old, earnings season is here and the broad market was a notable laggard last week, all of which means further volatility and crosscurrents are possible, even likely. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list is another where’s there’s something for everyone. Our Top Pick is one of many medical-related stocks that’s showing strength thanks to a new product, great Q4 guidance and expectations of accelerating growth this year.

Heads up: Because of MLK Day, next week’s issue will be published next Tuesday (January 16) after the close.

As for the market, we don’t want to repeat ourselves, but early January is known for sharp moves, and that might be playing out now. We’re not ignoring the short-term gyrations, especially if a stock really cracks key support, and, frankly, we’d expect some more tossing and turning, but we advise focusing more on the intermediate term—and on that front, the vast majority of evidence remains in the bull camp. We’re going to nudge our Market Monitor down to a level 7 to respect the wobbles we’ve seen, but overall we’re leaning bullish until the evidence changes.

This week’s list is an interesting one, with a batch of proven performers along with some off-the-bottom and more speculative situations. Our Top Pick is a name that was left for dead during the bear phase but has the makings of a powerful turnaround as revenue growth accelerates from modest levels and some newer offerings take root.

Happy New Year! Now that the calendar has flipped, early January is upon us, and as we saw today, that’s almost always a tricky time: There are many crosscurrents that pop up, and when you combine that with the market’s straight-up move since the start of November, today’s sour (and rotational) action wasn’t a total surprise and is a reason why we’ve been advising picking your spots of late. If you’re looking for something to worry about, we’d say that growth stocks (which led the way up in November) stalled out three weeks ago, so if the selling continues, that could be a canary in a coal mine of sorts—but at this point, we’re seeing normal (albeit unpleasant) downside action in many stocks. Right now we’re thinking the next couple of weeks will likely prove tricky, yet the path of least resistance remains up. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 8, though we’ll be in touch if that changes.

This week’s list has something for everyone, from newer names trying to emerge to established leaders that have rested for two or three weeks. Our Top Pick has moved out on the upside and has excellent numbers, all while its sector remains in favor.

Note: We will have a Movers & Shakers update later this week, but just a heads up, there will be no Top Ten issue next week (December 26), as it’s the second of our two weeks off all year. For those that celebrate, we hope you have a very, very Merry Christmas!

On to the market, things can always change, but after two years of rate hikes and hawkishness, it looks like the Fed is finally “officially” off the market’s back. Interest rates have been the tail that’s wagged the market for two years, so that’s obviously good, and it’s no surprise that stocks (especially the broad market) catapulted on that news. With all of that said, it’s important to keep your feet on the ground; we’re not expecting a major dip, but it’s certainly possible stocks could wobble a bit or we could see some rotation now that the good news is out. Even so, the rubber-meets-the-road evidence is strongly positive; we’re moving up our Market Monitor to a level 8.

This week’s list is a balanced one, with some growth, some cheap names coming back from the depths, some cyclicals and more. Our Top Pick is a Bull Market stock that should do very well if this advance continues. Try to buy on dips.

We continue to see some near-term tremors, but beyond that, the evidence looks pretty great, both from a top-down perspective and, even more so, among leading stocks, which continue to behave themselves, with a lot of controlled pullbacks and tight action among those that have dipped—while many others are still pushing higher. All in all, we’re encouraged, though for the moment we do think it’s best to pick your spots. Our Market Monitor stands at a level 7.

This week’s list has another balanced collection of ideas, with many different sectors and types of stocks. Our Top Pick is one of many turnaround-type retailers that’s cheap, has new-ish management and should have solid growth ahead—and the stock is perking up, too.

Most of the rubber-meets-the-road evidence is positive when it comes to the intermediate-term, that said, short-term, some wobbles and rotation are beginning to creep in—some growth areas (like chips) are weakening while the broad market (small-caps, etc.) are perking up, and after five weeks of strong gains, investor sentiment has gotten a bit comfortable. That doesn’t have us growing more cautious, and in fact, we’re bumping up our Market Monitor to a level 7—though we are still favoring moving gradually and picking your stocks and entry points carefully.

This week’s list has another nice collection of stocks, including everything from precious metals to chemicals to some powerful earnings gaps in the tech space. Our Top Pick is a tech infrastructure name that isn’t early in its run, but after a choppy three months, it appears ready for its next move.

The intermediate-term trend has turned up for all of the major indexes, the number of stocks hitting new lows is drying up nicely, individual leading stocks are acting well and, while it’s not a torrent, we are seeing some more breakouts and setups as the days go by. It’s not 1999 out there, with wide swaths of the market still repairing the damage from recent months, so we continue to favor a step-by-step approach when it comes to extending your line. We’ll move our Market Monitor up to a level 6 and will continue to raise it should the rally continue to gain steam.

This week’s list has another crop of super-strong charts, and from a variety of industries, too. Our Top Pick isn’t a lightning-fast mover, but it looks like the leader in a group that’s shown exceptional strength off the lows and has a history of trending nicely when conditions are favorable.

Last week was a split tape, with the big-cap indexes continuing their thrust higher, though the broad market remains a soft spot. Overall, the intermediate-term trend is effectively neutral, and we think what happens from here will tell the tale, with further strength indicating that a year-end rally is underway, though should the broad market infect the leadership, all bets are off. Right now, we’re more optimistic than not, but are simply looking for more confirmation on the upside—we’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 5.

We think the most bullish thing the market has going for it is the action of individual stocks, a good number of which are beginning to percolate. Our Top Pick definitely quacks like a liquid leading name.

We’ve been writing for a few weeks that many secondary indicators were near levels normally associated with the market lows, so if something actually went right in the world, the market could respond powerfully—and we’re optimistic that process is now underway as interest rates have fallen off and the market popped beautifully last week. In response we’re bumping up our Market Monitor ... but only to a level 5 at this point, as the intermediate-term trend still isn’t up. Long story short: We’re OK throwing a couple more lines in the water, but we want to see constructive action from here (tame pullbacks, more breakouts, etc.) before turning truly bullish.

This week’s list has charts in a few different places (some coming off the lows, some near new highs, etc.), but a ton of them reacted well to earnings and most should do well if the market follows through on its rally. Our Top Pick is a stock that, after many months of tedious action, appears to be ready to resume its major upmove.

There’s not much new to say when it comes to the market—just about all of the primary evidence remains bearish, and interest rates are still in a firm uptrend, too. There are a growing number of secondary measures that are flashing green, effectively saying a solid bounce (and maybe more) should be coming soon. Thus, we’re staying alert and keeping a list of resilient stocks and sectors, but at the risk of repeating ourselves, we have to see the buyers show up for more than a few hours to start thinking investor perception is truly changing for the better. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 4.

This week’s list has more than a few familiar names, including some initial earnings winners. Our Top Pick is a steady performer that also is showing great growth thanks to both of its top-selling brands—and the stock just emerged from nearly three months of chopping lower on its report. Try to buy on dips.

It was Fed and jobs week in the market, which implied a lot of volatility—and that’s just what we’ve seen, with a big drop after the Fed said no cuts were likely in March, a nice rebound yesterday, and this morning is looking more mixed, as some big tech earnings are helping the Nasdaq but the rest of the market is suffering as a strong jobs report has rates spiking.

It’s been another up week for the market, though as of this morning, the gains have been relatively muted, generally up 1% or less.


Even so, that keeps all of the primary evidence intact: The intermediate-term (and longer-term) trends of the indexes, along with most stocks and sectors, are pointed up, and the action of most leading stocks (especially on the growth side of things) has been excellent, with many names kiting higher. Thus, we remain bullish and are holding most of our strong, profitable stocks.

Net-net, it’s been a quiet week for the major indexes, with most up or down less than 1%. That said, there are some interesting things happening under the market’s surface.

Reminder: Because of the MLK holiday this coming Monday, your next Top Ten issue will be sent after Tuesday’s close (January 16). Have a great long weekend.


==



Last week saw a lot of leading stocks take some ugly hits, but in true January fashion, this week brought the reverse, with many strong snapbacks, including more than a few names that rebounded to new highs. It hasn’t hurt that interest rates backed off a bit (down seven basis points on the 10-year Treasury), too.

The New Year has gotten off to a poor start, with just about everything selling off and with growth-oriented names taking the worst of it. As of this morning, the S&P 500 is down about 1%, the Nasdaq is off nearly 3%, broader indexes are off 2%-plus and growth-y funds are off 4% to 7%! Even interest rates are reversing their recent trend, with the 10-year Treasury yield up around 0.11% this week (though they have made a nice reversal lower so far today).

First and foremost, all of us at Cabot hope you’re having a great holiday week and wish you and yours a healthy and prosperous new year. Our offices will be closed Monday, but your next issue of Top Ten Trader will be published Tuesday (January 2) after the close.

Note: As a reminder, there will be no Top Ten issue next week—it’s one of our two weeks off and we’ll be busy relaxing with the family for much of it. For those that celebrate, have a fantastic Christmas and we’ll be back in touch later next week with another Movers & Shakers Update. I will be in and out of the office next week but should be able to get back to any questions you have on individual stocks—you can email me directly at mike@cabotwealth.com.

The big events this week were the November inflation report and the Fed’s meeting, and both (especially the latter) were very pleasing to the market—the fact that the Fed is forecasting three rate cuts next year tells us at the very least that the rate hike cycle is almost surely over, which helped stocks and bonds rally nicely. As of this morning, big-cap indexes are up about 2.5% on the week, while small- and mid-cap indexes are up more than 5%.

It’s been a relatively quiet and mildly positive week for the major indexes, with most up less than 1% (though small caps have been a little stronger) following this morning’s jobs report. It’s a similar story with interest rates, which, despite a pop higher today, are unchanged to slightly higher on the week.

The major indexes have been muted this week, with most right around unchanged on the week. Overall, that’s kept the top-down evidence pointed higher—the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is up, the same goes with many growth-oriented funds, and we’ve even seen continued improvement in the broad market, with the number of new lows consistently coming in at tame levels.

So far, it’s been a relatively quiet pre-holiday week, with the big-cap indexes up a bit, the broader indexes flat or down a smidge, and with interest rates also down a little (three to five basis points). We’ll see what happens today after Nvidia’s earnings last night, but suffice it to say that the intermediate-term trend continues to point up.

It’s been another constructive week for the market, with the major indexes up and most leading stocks acting appropriately. More important to us is that the broad market kicked into gear, which has turned the intermediate-term trend up for all of the major indexes we follow.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.

Cabot Top Ten Trader is meant to be something where we do the first four or five steps of the process for you and then let you take it from there.

By following thse guidelines, we’ve always been able to get on board relatively early in each new bull cycle.

Guidelines to improve your investment results with Cabot Top Ten Trader.

The Cabot Top Ten Trader system evaluates price and relative performance of 8,000 charts each week to select the strongest momentum stocks.

A brief guide on using the Cabot Top Ten Trader.

This is a collection of tips on stock chart reading, something that’s key to Mike Cintolo’s growth stock methodology, but something few individual investors (and even professional investors) understand too well.

If you follow these rules, you’re sure to boost your portfolio’s results.

Here some of the most common questions Mike Cintolo gets from the readers of Cabot Top Ten Trader.