Current Market Outlook


From a top-down perspective, there’s not much to complain about when it comes to the current market—the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is firmly pointed up, and the broad market has come alive in a big way, with two major blastoff indicators turning green in the past two weeks. Thus, for the overall market, the outlook is mostly sunny, though there’s always the chance of a passing shower. However, leading growth stocks are now on the run a little bit; it’s been two weeks of on-and-off selling, and many are beginning to approach key support areas. As we’ve written lately, the good news is that breakdowns have been few and far between; the pullbacks have been normal thus far, but the next few days should be telling to see if growth names are in for a deeper retreat or whether everything can get in gear with the broad market on the upside.

As you’d expect, this week’s list is heavier in names that have more recently come to life, including a few cyclical-related names. Our Top Pick is Autodesk (ADSK), a growth-y name that should also get a boost from the economic recovery, and the stock has leapt nicely to new highs.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
ASML Holding (ASML)	350.01	330-340	300-305
Autodesk (ADSK)	229.00	220-230	198-203
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)	26.23	21.5-23	18.5-19.5
Datadog (DDOG)	81.52	72.5-77	62-64.5
Elastic (ESTC)	86.17	78.5-82.5	70.5-72.5
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)	36.88	32.5-34	28.5-29.5
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	85-89	74-76
Thor Industries (THO)	104.76	101-106	89-92
Trade Desk (TTD)	468.02	338-358	298-308
Trex Company (TREX)	117.56	117-122	103-105

Eleven weeks off the market bottom, with the S&P 500 up 45% from its low, the news is finally getting good—which to me says that short-term, investing in stocks is likely to become a bit more challenging. That’s one reason I’m recommending selling two stocks today—and putting another two on hold.

Long-term, however, the future remains bright, especially for companies like the one featured today, which are serving global mass markets with products that they’re (literally) hungry for.



Full details in the issue.

The evidence for the overall market continues to improve; over the past week, two blastoff indicators have turned green, which should bode well when looking out over the next few months. Growth stocks, however, remain in a consolidation phase following some huge runs, with many (not all) stocks sagging back during the past week or two. Overall, though, the pullbacks have been normal, so we remain optimistic, though we’re still stepping slowly and looking for decent entry points.

In tonight’s issue, we’re doing a touch more buying, filling out a position in one of our stocks, following the addition of a full position last week. That will leave us with around 18% in cash.

Today we’re breaking into a familiar market by going back to the insurance industry.

But today’s addition is very different from our other rapid growth insurance companies in a major way (as you’ll soon see!).



The stock is acting strong and the fundamentals remain great, despite COVID-19.



All the details are inside this month’s Issue. Enjoy!

Three of today’s featured companies seem most obviously ready to begin or continue run-ups in the coming days. The fourth featured company is sitting at the bottom of a steady trading range, offering attractive opportunities for growth investors, dividend investors and traders.

U.S. stock markets are rising again. At some point in the coming months, the sober reality of the country’s economic situation will impact the stock market, but for now, there’s money to be made. Energy stocks and stocks within the investment, life insurance and annuity industry look especially bullish right now.

Precious metal stocks have become mixed of late as economic optimism has increased, but some are still strong, and today’s recommendation is one of them.

Fortunately, most banks entered the current downturn in much better condition than when they entered the 2009 financial crisis. Meaningfully higher capital levels, stronger loan reserves, more stringent risk controls and tighter cost structures will all help support banks’ financial health in the difficult period ahead.

In this issue, we recommend six banks whose weak share prices imply an overly dour economic outlook.

Current Market Outlook


Last week saw some vicious rotation early in the week, with the super-strong growth names coming down to earth while money gushed into cyclical sectors, but the leaders stabilized as the week wore on and the broad market remains positive, too. From a big-picture perspective, the 90% Blastoff signal last week (90% of NYSE stocks above their 50-day lines) bodes well for the overall market, and the fact that few (if any) leading stocks have cracked is a good sign. All in all, further potholes, rotations and shakeouts are relatively likely given the big run over the past two months and the divergent environment, but until proven otherwise, we continue to think the path of least resistance is pointed up. We’re moving our Market Monitor up another notch to a level 8.

This week’s list has a good mix of setups, with some recent earnings winners, some that have pulled back and others that are in persistent uptrends. Our Top Pick is Arconic (ARNC), which is one of the few cyclical stocks to appear in Top Ten since the uptrend got underway.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT)	39.41	37.5-39.5	34-35
Arconic (ARNC)	17.00	14-15	11.7-12.2
Bill.com Holdings (BILL)	88.76	69-73	60-62.5
Dynatrace (DT)	36.59	35-37	31-32.5
II-VI Incorporated (IIVI)	48.64	45.5-48	40-41.5
LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP)	46.54	48-50	43-44
Pan American Silver (PAAS)	27.28	27-29	24-25
Seattle Genetics (SGEN)	150.85	156-160	140-143
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)	122.24	115-119	103-105
Zscaler (ZS)	126.22	103-108	89-92

The overall market remains healthy, and while we still haven’t received an “all-clear” signal from our long-term timing indicator, we do have a positive signal from the 90% Blastoff Indicator, and that’s good!

Overall, our portfolio stocks are behaving quite well, with none disappointing today. In fact, many are so strong that I expect pullbacks in the future. The only sale today is of a stock that has given us a quick 30% profit. Otherwise, I’m sitting tight.



As for today’s recommendation, it’s a company in the online education industry, where demand is booming thanks to COVID-19.



Full details in the issue.

This looks like a classic buy-the-dip scenario. Nothing is for certain, but my best guess is we regain the small-cap 50-day moving average line next week, and after a week or two of choppy action, are trading at another 52-week high.

Volatility returned to the stock market during the past week. Investors are concerned about the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike next week after a batch of weak economic news indicated that the U.S. economy will continue to sputter.

The Emerging Markets Timer is still pointed up, but it’s clearly seen some selling volume over the last week. So while we’re still bullish, we’re not looking to push for further exposure at this point. The only change in the portfolio is the sale of Telkom Indonesia (TLK) that we recommended in a Special Bulletin on Wednesday.

Whether this is a quick V-shaped pullback like we saw after Brexit or a more serious correction will become apparent in coming weeks, but I suggest you become a little more conservative while we wait and see. We’re selling half of CVS Health (CVS) and J.M. Smucker (SJM) today and putting Home Depot (HD) on Hold.

Any surprising event of substance can affect the stock market, even if it’s only for one day. The biggest reason that non-financial events, such as the Zika virus, Mrs. Clinton’s health, Y2K and the Brexit vote impact U.S. stock markets is because U.S. news media latch onto these topics and cover them incessantly, giving the general public the impression that these pieces of news are vitally important.

Five Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news. I have one sell recommendation: Cummins (CMI).

Small caps resumed their upward trajectory over the past week, rising by 1.3%. Our portfolio did a little better, rising by an average of 2.6%. And small cap growth looks good for the year ahead. While anything can happen in the market, the game plan remains the same: stay in good stocks, avoid bad ones, and get out of those that have faltering outlooks. In short, stay the course.

Remain bullish. The market is in good shape, and we’re starting to see some growth stocks reassert themselves. There are still some potholes out there, but we believe you should remain heavily invested. In the Model Portfolio, we sold Five Below (FIVE) on a Special Bulletin yesterday, replacing it with GrubHub (GRUB), and today, we’re placing Facebook (FB) back on Buy.

Oil prices and energy stocks have strengthened, so I’m putting Pembina Pipeline (PBA) back on Buy today. However, I’m moving Costco (COST) back to Hold after the warehouse retailer’s latest sales results caused the stock to pull back once more.

Three Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor companies reported quarterly financial results or other noteworthy news in the past week. I have one sell recommendation: Rackspace Holding (RAX).

The Emerging Markets Timer is still pointed up, despite the market’s recent consolidation. Our moves tonight are increasing our Buy recommendation for Alibaba (BABA) to a full position, lowering our rating of Telkom Indonesia (TLK) to Hold a Half and returning Weibo (WB) to a Buy a Half recommendation.

Today I’m removing Delta Air Lines (DAL) from the Growth Portfolio. The company’s earnings outlook has deteriorated to an expectation of EPS declining 1% in 2016, and the price chart has not improved since I put the stock on Hold two months ago.

Five analysts have increased their EPS targets for this software company in the past 30 days.

Stocks opened higher today on the backs of some good earnings reports, but the sellers have again come out of the woodwork and driven growth stocks lower. Looking at the primary evidence, our Cabot Tides remain negative, our Cabot Trend Lines could turn negative tonight depending on how the market closes and most important, stocks and the major indexes have been unable to mount much of a bounce in recent days. It’s best to stay defensive and we are sell the rest of one of our positions.

Four stocks in our portfolio’s have reported earnings.

This consumer finance company beat EPS estimates by $0.04 last quarter, and is expected to grow at a 13% annual rate over the next five years.

Three stocks in our portfolio’s have reported earnings beats.

The shares of this music streaming service were just upgraded to ‘Buy’ at Redfern.

This airline beat Wall Street’s estimates by $0.03 last quarter.

Tomorrow’s the day that stores across Canada begin selling marijuana legally, and as I’ve said several times before, I believe the odds are that this will mark an intermediate-term top for many of the stocks in the sector.

This trucking company beat analysts’ estimates by $0.11 last quarter and three analysts have increased their EPS estimates for the company in the past 30 days.

The second previous idea we are selling.

Next, we are cleaning house a bit by selling two previous ideas.

Our first pick today is an Indian IT company who beat EPS estimates by $0.08 last quarter.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Momentum Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Momentum Trader features.