Explorer stocks were steady or slightly down this week but don’t get discouraged. It is likely that Fed interest rate hikes have ended and, combined with a debt ceiling deal, could ignite a rally. Next week I will give an update on our three Explorer ETF positions.

The unemployment rate for Chinese people ages 16 to 24 rose to a record of 20.4% last month. The rate of youth unemployment in China has consistently been two or three times higher than the general population. Not a good sign.

The Federal Reserve yesterday raised the target for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to a new range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since September 2007. This will impact the value and stability of the U.S. dollar and stock markets in several ways.

During the only stable dollar eras of the last century, annual GDP growth averaged 4.9% from 1922-29, 4% from 1948-71, and 3.7% from 1983-2000.

In comparison, over the last two decades, a more volatile dollar saw average growth of only 1.9%. Had the dollar remained stable since 2000, with a steady 3.7% growth, the economy would be nearly 50% greater than it is today, and we probably would have avoided all these financial crises along the way.

Foreign automakers, including electric vehicle (EV) makers, are losing market share in China as the country doubles down on the EV supply chain.

China makes almost all of EV electric motors and refines most of the chemicals used for lithium batteries. China even leads in developing what could be the next generation of technology, sodium batteries.

More than $15 trillion in assets are linked to the performance of the S&P 500 index in some way, according to S&P Dow Jones.

Apple, at about $2.4 trillion, and Microsoft, at $2.1 trillion, are so large that, taken together, the two companies would be the third-largest sector of the index, behind tech and health care. This share is trending lower as other companies rise.

I think the 0.25% raise by the Fed yesterday will be followed by a pause. Won’t it be nice when stocks fluctuate primarily around company performance rather than actions by the Fed? Elsewhere, Xi and Putin meet in Moscow in a sign of solidarity and challenge to the U.S. and the West. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is up 10 points this week while today we have a new emerging market recommendation from a country with one of the strongest currencies of 2023.

Market struggles resumed as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continues to warn of interest rate hikes as inflation concerns linger. MP Materials (MP) was downgraded to sell last week as Elon Musk’s Investor Day comments raised questions about future demand for MP’s rare earths. Most Explorer stocks were steady as Polestar (PSNY) posted strong revenue growth and an ambitious sales target for 2023. This week’s recommendation is a smart way to play China’s emerging market rebound.

America’s economy has been resilient in the face of rising interest rates, pushing the 10-year Treasury to the cusp of 4%. Earnings have been pretty good but ironically, the threat of too strong an economy, or a recession, seems to be weighing on markets. Our Exscienta (EXAI) was stopped out while Centrus Energy (LEU) was up 14% yesterday after positive earnings.

As Congress struggled with raising the debt ceiling, the excess of Federal spending over tax revenue totaled $459 billion through the first four months of the fiscal year (started October 1, 2022). Meanwhile, the strong dollar is a drag on multinational earnings. Today, we explore a fascinating company and stock that leverages artificial intelligence to accelerate biotech development.

Tesla doesn’t look sick to me. Last night it reported Q4 net income of $3.69 billion and revenue of $24.3 billion, up 59% and 37%, respectively, from a year earlier. Tesla sold 405,278 vehicles, up 31% from a year earlier and stated it knows it needs to produce cheaper EVs to become a bigger automaker. With EVs on the brain, this week we go to Sweden for an under-the-radar electric vehicle maker that is gaining momentum based on performance and styling.

As we move into 2023, Explorer stocks are performing well as volatility is muted. My goal is to seek a balance between conservative and aggressive ideas so that you can select a blend that is appropriate for your circumstances and goals. I believe at some point in the first half of this year, markets will turn upward as more reasonable valuations will reignite investor interest. Today we return to a synthetic graphite idea that was a profitable trade about a year ago.

As we finish a tough year for stocks we should guard against pessimism since interest rate hikes should slow and level out and lower valuations for growth stocks could ignite a rally. Explorer stocks had little news as we sell one holding and are close to selling MP Materials (MP) as well. This week we go back to a small-cap medical technology stock trading at an attractive price.

The Fed raised benchmark interest rates a half a point and signaled more to come. Elsewhere, scientists studying fusion energy at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have crossed a huge milestone in reproducing the power of the sun in a laboratory. Explorer positions showed relative strength, led again by Kraken (KRNKF). Today we go to Britain for a historic and strategically important company, brand, and stock selling for a bit over $1 a share.

This week tech stocks looked better while First Republic Bank continues to struggle to gain its footing. It was a relatively quiet week for Explorer stocks as movement up or down was minimal. However, the news on the global electric vehicle (EV) race is coming fast and furious.

It can pay to pay attention to what investment legends are doing to cope in these turbulent times.

Warren Buffett still has a knack for seeking value and a history of going to Japan to find it in times of volatility. Overall, Japan’s Topix index trades at 13.3 times expected earnings, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That compares with 18.9 times for the S&P 500.

BYD (BYDDY) reported great earnings, and Novo Nordisk (NVO) got a lift from the World Health organization this past week – but the big news is that Alibaba (BABA) surprised markets by announcing on Tuesday a plan to split the $220 billion goliath into six standalone units.

This was a week to remember. The Explorer does not have any financial stocks, thankfully, though a couple of our small-cap ideas did not have a good week. Federal deposit insurance was introduced 90 years ago during the Great Depression. Ever since then, small depositors within the FDIC limit of coverage have escaped the fear of a bank failure.

Yesterday was Tesla’s annual investor day and it seems it came up a bit short regarding specifics.

Elon Musk started with a big number even by Washington standards, suggesting that realizing the vision for an energy transition could require some $7 trillion of investments in electric-vehicle manufacturing.

Retail sales rose 3% in January, the Census Bureau said yesterday, reversing November and December’s declines. Manufacturing output increased by 1%, following a steep 1.8% decline in December. Positive but slow growth right now might be just what we need to avoid more interest rate increases by the Fed.

It is only a month into 2023 but playing safe has not paid off as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is the best-performing U.S. index ETF with a gain of 10.6% thus far. The small-cap Russell 2,000 (IWM) is next, up 9.8%. The Dow Jones 30 (DIA) – which fared the best in 2022 – is up only 2.95%.

A key theme of the Explorer is that there is always a bull market somewhere in the world. Today we offer a quick update on two – nuclear energy and electric vehicles.

All in all, the track record of nuclear energy is very good, especially when compared with the effects from comparable forms of energy.

U.S. conglomerates, all the rage in the 1970s and into the 1980s, are still alive and kicking though investors prefer a more sector and global approach.

Yesterday, General Electric (GE) completed the spinoff of its healthcare business, GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC). GE HealthCare, which makes MRI machines and other medical equipment, now trades on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol GEHC.

Portfolio Changes: Infineon Technologies (IFNNY): FROM BUY A HALF TO HOLD


Centrus Energy (LEU) shares were up a point this week but the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has been revised 21% downward over the last 60 days. This is still a buy for aggressive investors as interest in expanding nuclear power gains momentum.

Centrus Energy (LEU) shares retraced from 38 to 34 as three hedge funds were long Centrus in the third quarter, while six hedge funds were long the stock in the previous quarter. Their total stake values were $14.9 million and $14.7 million, respectively. This is still a buy for aggressive investors.

Centrus Energy (LEU) shares recovered five points this week to reach 35 as the Department of Energy announced that it and Centrus Energy’s American Centrifuge Operating, LLC will share the $150 million cost 50-50 to demonstrate production of a fuel called high assay low enriched uranium. This is still a buy for aggressive investors.

The markets came under heavy selling pressure today, as investors finally began to grapple with the possible effects of genuine trade war, one that included not just China, but many U.S. allies as well. As a result, we are selling two positions and moving two positions to hold.

This morning, our longest and most-profitable holding, came under attack by Muddy Waters, a firm that specializes in publishing negative research on a company and selling its stock short.

We’re selling our position in one stock today.

Tonight we’re going to sell our remaining half position in one stock and hold the cash. (We sold the first half of our position on April 20 for a small profit.)

The iShares MSCI EM ETF (EEM) has been under quite a bit of selling pressure over the past four days, dropping it from a close above its 25-day moving average last Wednesday to within shouting distance of its 200-day moving average today.

Two of our stocks reported their latest quarterly results yesterday and both disappointed; one is now rated Sell.

Following what seemed to be a perfectly successful quarterly report on Monday evening, YY opened up today but then plowed steadily lower all morning. The stock found support at 117, and rebounded slightly finishing the day near 120.

The recent wave of selling has taken a bite out of the major indexes, and has undercut most of the stocks in our portfolio.

A wave of selling took a bite out of growth stocks today, including every stock in the Cabot China and Emerging Market Investor’s portfolio. I am taking two actions in response to today’s weakness.

Today brought a wave of selling that took the major market indexes (and most of the stock in our portfolio) down a peg or two. Despite the selloff, most of our stocks remain in their recent trading ranges and look like they will do just fine unless the market takes another leap off the end of the dock tomorrow.

The price of one of our stocks has dropped to one-sixth of its yesterday close and is now trading around 29. The move is the result of a change in the ratio of native shares to ADR shares.

I’ve seen some unsettling action in a few of our stocks, I think we need to make a few small adjustments.