Issues
So far, this has been a positive year for the market. But an enormous amount of uncertainty remains.
The painful high inflation/hawkish Fed conundrum that caused last year’s bear market appears to be ending. But a high risk of recession is taking over. It will be difficult for stocks to rally into the next bull market without knowing the timing, severity, or duration of a possible recession.
Inflation could remain sticky. A recession could hit in any of the next three quarters. A recovery may be lame when it finally arrives because the Fed may have to keep interest rates high. We don’t know if six months from now we will face more inflation, a recession or even stagflation.
The painful high inflation/hawkish Fed conundrum that caused last year’s bear market appears to be ending. But a high risk of recession is taking over. It will be difficult for stocks to rally into the next bull market without knowing the timing, severity, or duration of a possible recession.
Inflation could remain sticky. A recession could hit in any of the next three quarters. A recovery may be lame when it finally arrives because the Fed may have to keep interest rates high. We don’t know if six months from now we will face more inflation, a recession or even stagflation.
Inflation has come down. But in the past, when inflation stayed this high for this long, it took about a decade to get rid of it. That’s why the inflation rate averaged 7.25% in the decade of the 1970s and 5.82% in the 1980s.
Once that inflation genie gets out of the bottle, it has historically been a long ordeal to get it back in. Higher inflation and interest rates may persist for several years to come. That’s a different economic situation than we have faced in a long time. And it is changing the investment landscape.
As investors, we need to invest in a way that not only keeps pace with inflation but exceeds the rate of inflation in order to actually grow a nest egg in real terms. In this issue, I highlight two portfolio dividend stocks that have a unique ability to thrive during inflation beyond most dividend stocks.
Once that inflation genie gets out of the bottle, it has historically been a long ordeal to get it back in. Higher inflation and interest rates may persist for several years to come. That’s a different economic situation than we have faced in a long time. And it is changing the investment landscape.
As investors, we need to invest in a way that not only keeps pace with inflation but exceeds the rate of inflation in order to actually grow a nest egg in real terms. In this issue, I highlight two portfolio dividend stocks that have a unique ability to thrive during inflation beyond most dividend stocks.
The market is at a crossroad.
It is possible that we could get through this cycle soon and without a recession. The market could rally to new highs without much more trouble. On the other hand, a more hawkish Fed or deeper economic downturn than currently anticipated could cause another market plunge.
You could just bet on one scenario and hope for the best. But there might be a better way to navigate these waters. Instead of gambling on a certain outcome, we can buy stocks that should thrive in both bull and bear markets.
In this month’s issue, I highlight four current portfolio positions that are “all-weather” stocks. These stocks should do just fine if the market takes off and doesn’t look back in a soft landing. But they should also perform relatively well in case a more ugly scenario unfolds. They should be solid in almost any kind of market environment and pay you a great income in the meantime.
It is possible that we could get through this cycle soon and without a recession. The market could rally to new highs without much more trouble. On the other hand, a more hawkish Fed or deeper economic downturn than currently anticipated could cause another market plunge.
You could just bet on one scenario and hope for the best. But there might be a better way to navigate these waters. Instead of gambling on a certain outcome, we can buy stocks that should thrive in both bull and bear markets.
In this month’s issue, I highlight four current portfolio positions that are “all-weather” stocks. These stocks should do just fine if the market takes off and doesn’t look back in a soft landing. But they should also perform relatively well in case a more ugly scenario unfolds. They should be solid in almost any kind of market environment and pay you a great income in the meantime.
Sure, it was a tough year for stocks. But 2022 was the worst year ever recorded for bonds.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury lost more than 15% in 2022, the worst calendar year performance ever recorded since it started being tracked in the 1920s. The 10-year + Treasury Bond Index lost 29.45% for the year, also the worst performance on record.
But the disastrous year creates an opportunity. Last year seems to have squeezed many years of poor performance into one. Now bonds actually pay decent interest again. And every negative year for bonds ever recorded has been followed by a year of positive returns.
In this issue, I highlight a long-term corporate bond fund. It allows access to some of the highest yielding investment grade bonds in the last 15 years while also providing a monthly income. The fund is very likely to have a positive total return for the year, and perhaps very positive, at a time when the stock market is highly uncertain.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury lost more than 15% in 2022, the worst calendar year performance ever recorded since it started being tracked in the 1920s. The 10-year + Treasury Bond Index lost 29.45% for the year, also the worst performance on record.
But the disastrous year creates an opportunity. Last year seems to have squeezed many years of poor performance into one. Now bonds actually pay decent interest again. And every negative year for bonds ever recorded has been followed by a year of positive returns.
In this issue, I highlight a long-term corporate bond fund. It allows access to some of the highest yielding investment grade bonds in the last 15 years while also providing a monthly income. The fund is very likely to have a positive total return for the year, and perhaps very positive, at a time when the stock market is highly uncertain.
It is reasonable to expect a significant market turnaround sometime next year. The market trends higher over time. And bear markets always give way to bull markets. Things should get a lot better in 2023. But there is a strong chance they get worse first given the current uncertainties regarding inflation, the Fed, and a recession.
Of course, a recovery and new bull market should reward the short-term pain handsomely over time. As a longer-term investor, which dividend investors should be, it should just be short-term noise on the way to long-term profits. But we can do better than just riding out the storm. We can exploit another possible market downturn to our advantage.
It’s a fact that many stocks that get hurt the worst in a bear market are the first to recover when the market turns. In this issue, I highlight a phenomenal cyclical stock that had been a market superstar but has been clobbered in this bear market. The stock is targeted at a low, low price that may be reached if the market falls to a new low. It could provide incredible upside leverage ahead of a market recovery.
Of course, a recovery and new bull market should reward the short-term pain handsomely over time. As a longer-term investor, which dividend investors should be, it should just be short-term noise on the way to long-term profits. But we can do better than just riding out the storm. We can exploit another possible market downturn to our advantage.
It’s a fact that many stocks that get hurt the worst in a bear market are the first to recover when the market turns. In this issue, I highlight a phenomenal cyclical stock that had been a market superstar but has been clobbered in this bear market. The stock is targeted at a low, low price that may be reached if the market falls to a new low. It could provide incredible upside leverage ahead of a market recovery.
The Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate six times this year to combat inflation and the last four times at a 0.75% clip. The current 4% rate is the highest in well over a decade. But inflation hasn’t budged even after the rate hikes, a shrinking GDP, and a bear market.
At the November meeting, the Fed Chairmen stated that the previous 4.5% to 5.0% Fed Funds goal no longer applies. It will have to go higher. The U.S. economy is resilient, but it will eventually give way to the forces aligned against it. It is almost certain that there will be a recession in 2023.
Meanwhile, for the first time since forever, you can get investment-grade, fixed-rate investments that pay 5% or even 6%, for now. But recessions put downward pressure on longer interest rates as loan demand dries up.
In this issue, I highlight a rare opportunity to lock in a high fixed rate while it lasts and add balance and diversification to the portfolio. Let’s not miss it.
At the November meeting, the Fed Chairmen stated that the previous 4.5% to 5.0% Fed Funds goal no longer applies. It will have to go higher. The U.S. economy is resilient, but it will eventually give way to the forces aligned against it. It is almost certain that there will be a recession in 2023.
Meanwhile, for the first time since forever, you can get investment-grade, fixed-rate investments that pay 5% or even 6%, for now. But recessions put downward pressure on longer interest rates as loan demand dries up.
In this issue, I highlight a rare opportunity to lock in a high fixed rate while it lasts and add balance and diversification to the portfolio. Let’s not miss it.
In an otherwise miserable year of nonstop inflation, recession, the Fed, and a bear market, an opportunity is emerging for opportunistic investors. Attractive rates on conservative fixed-rate investments have reemerged. There is a chance to lock in rates not seen since the decade before last.
In this issue, I highlight an investment grade rated fixed income security that currently yields nearly 6%, and the income offers tax advantages to boot.
In this issue, I highlight an investment grade rated fixed income security that currently yields nearly 6%, and the income offers tax advantages to boot.
It’s been a rough year for stocks. And things may get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, money markets pay barely anything, and you never know when the market will turn.
Dividends are a great answer for a market like this.
They provide an income and lower volatility in turbulent markets and make it easier to stay invested ahead of the next bull market. Dividends account for most of the market returns during flat and down markets and excel during times of inflation.
In this issue, I highlight a company in one of the most defensive and recession-resistant industries on the market that currently pays a massive 8% yield. The stock is already cheap and likely near the trough of its own bear market with far more upside than downside over time to complement the high dividend.
Dividends are a great answer for a market like this.
They provide an income and lower volatility in turbulent markets and make it easier to stay invested ahead of the next bull market. Dividends account for most of the market returns during flat and down markets and excel during times of inflation.
In this issue, I highlight a company in one of the most defensive and recession-resistant industries on the market that currently pays a massive 8% yield. The stock is already cheap and likely near the trough of its own bear market with far more upside than downside over time to complement the high dividend.
We are likely in a recession. Meanwhile, inflation continues to rage on. That means stocks will have to navigate an environment of both recession and inflation, at least for the rest of the year.
That’s tricky because few companies perform well with both. Commodity-based companies thrive in inflation but struggle in recession. Many defensive companies that shine in recession don’t like inflation.
In this month’s issue, I highlight a stock in one of the rare sectors that can successfully navigate both recession and rising prices at the same time – midstream energy. Strong operational performance, a low valuation, and a high and safe yield are perfect for the current situation.
That’s tricky because few companies perform well with both. Commodity-based companies thrive in inflation but struggle in recession. Many defensive companies that shine in recession don’t like inflation.
In this month’s issue, I highlight a stock in one of the rare sectors that can successfully navigate both recession and rising prices at the same time – midstream energy. Strong operational performance, a low valuation, and a high and safe yield are perfect for the current situation.
It’s a bear market. And there is a good chance that stocks make new lows in the weeks and months ahead.
Bear markets create fantastic opportunities for longer-term investors. History shows that bear markets create ideal entry points ahead of the next bull market. Let’s not just weather the storm. Let’s take full advantage of the very possible further downside from here in the market.
In this issue, I highlight one of the very best stocks on the market with a targeted low, low price that may be reached in the panic selling of a market bottom. Specifically, we target a highly desirable stock at a dirt-cheap price with a good ‘til cancel (GTC) at the designated price.
Bear markets create fantastic opportunities for longer-term investors. History shows that bear markets create ideal entry points ahead of the next bull market. Let’s not just weather the storm. Let’s take full advantage of the very possible further downside from here in the market.
In this issue, I highlight one of the very best stocks on the market with a targeted low, low price that may be reached in the panic selling of a market bottom. Specifically, we target a highly desirable stock at a dirt-cheap price with a good ‘til cancel (GTC) at the designated price.
It’s a raging bear market in technology.
But technology has been by far the best performing sector for well over a decade for good reasons. We are in fact in a technological revolution. Technological advances are accelerating. It feeds on itself and is transforming the world. Technology is where there is massive growth and excitement for the future.
Sure, the market might get cranky in the near term. Inflation and higher rates might be all the rage right now. But technology isn’t going away. It’s likely to grow even bigger in the future. The time to buy such stocks is when they are cheap and out of favor.
In this issue, I highlight three existing portfolio positions in the technology sector ready for purchase. All of these stocks sell at compelling valuations with strong growth likely ahead. They are victims of indiscriminate selling in the sector. At some point, hopefully sooner, investors will realize the value that has been created by this year’s market turmoil.
But technology has been by far the best performing sector for well over a decade for good reasons. We are in fact in a technological revolution. Technological advances are accelerating. It feeds on itself and is transforming the world. Technology is where there is massive growth and excitement for the future.
Sure, the market might get cranky in the near term. Inflation and higher rates might be all the rage right now. But technology isn’t going away. It’s likely to grow even bigger in the future. The time to buy such stocks is when they are cheap and out of favor.
In this issue, I highlight three existing portfolio positions in the technology sector ready for purchase. All of these stocks sell at compelling valuations with strong growth likely ahead. They are victims of indiscriminate selling in the sector. At some point, hopefully sooner, investors will realize the value that has been created by this year’s market turmoil.
It might not be too early to bargain hunt very selectively. Companies that are likely to continue to grow earnings and the dividend are likely to recover. There is one such opportunity in the cannabis sector.
The sector has been decimated in this market. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), the largest cannabis ETF, has fallen almost 50%, and 70% from the 2021 high. The selloff has taken the most reliable money maker in the sector down with it, despite continuing success and earnings growth.
In this issue, I highlight this reliable and high-growth stock. It pays a better than 5% yield and the payout is likely to grow, as earnings are expected to grow 37% this year.
The sector has been decimated in this market. The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), the largest cannabis ETF, has fallen almost 50%, and 70% from the 2021 high. The selloff has taken the most reliable money maker in the sector down with it, despite continuing success and earnings growth.
In this issue, I highlight this reliable and high-growth stock. It pays a better than 5% yield and the payout is likely to grow, as earnings are expected to grow 37% this year.
Updates
The new year is starting with big momentum. The S&P 500 had a torrid late-year rally where it soared about 16% between late October and the end of the year. Stocks closed out the year with nine straight up weeks, the longest streak since 2004.
Let the good times roll!
A good market just got better. A petering rally has been reinvigorated. And the good times may continue to roll through January.
A good market just got better. A petering rally has been reinvigorated. And the good times may continue to roll through January.
The superb rally that began after October is fading.
November was the best month for the S&P 500 in over a year. But now some reality is starting to set in. Wall Street took the good news about peak interest rates to another level and started pricing in Fed rate cuts early next year. The market is pulling back after the Fed dismissed that notion.
November was the best month for the S&P 500 in over a year. But now some reality is starting to set in. Wall Street took the good news about peak interest rates to another level and started pricing in Fed rate cuts early next year. The market is pulling back after the Fed dismissed that notion.
The strong November rally has sputtered out with the S&P 500 up 8.7% for the month so far. Is that the end of this upside leg?
The month started with a bang after the Fed indicated it was done hiking rates, and jobs and inflation numbers seemed to confirm Wall Street’s opinion that interest rates have peaked. The benchmark ten-year Treasury tumbled all the way from 5% at the end of October to 4.34% at midday on Tuesday.
The month started with a bang after the Fed indicated it was done hiking rates, and jobs and inflation numbers seemed to confirm Wall Street’s opinion that interest rates have peaked. The benchmark ten-year Treasury tumbled all the way from 5% at the end of October to 4.34% at midday on Tuesday.
Wall Street has decided that interest rates have peaked. And the market loves it. The S&P 500 is up 8.4% so far this month and has made up most of the decline of the prior three months.
The November rally is alive and well. After the market soared to the highest weekly returns of the year in the first week of the month, the rally sputtered last week. But it has come alive again after a good inflation report.
The market officially entered a “correction” last week when the S&P fell 10% from the 52-week high on a closing basis. Now, it’s largely up to the Fed to determine where the market goes next.
The Fed meets on Wednesday and will decide on the Fed Funds rate. They are widely expected to leave the rate unchanged and then indicate they might raise it in the future. But the main event isn’t the Fed Funds rate. It’s the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.
The Fed meets on Wednesday and will decide on the Fed Funds rate. They are widely expected to leave the rate unchanged and then indicate they might raise it in the future. But the main event isn’t the Fed Funds rate. It’s the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.
The market has lost all the October gains. Despite the strong economy and optimistic earnings, interest rates continue to cast a shadow.
The economy is killing it (for now). Third-quarter GDP is expected to exceed 5%. That’s an economy nowhere near recession. And earnings should reflect that economic strength. Strong earnings can lift many stocks higher.
The economy is killing it (for now). Third-quarter GDP is expected to exceed 5%. That’s an economy nowhere near recession. And earnings should reflect that economic strength. Strong earnings can lift many stocks higher.
The market is distinctly more optimistic this month as “soft landing’ hopes revive.
After a rough couple of months, the S&P is trending higher in October. The economy is still solid. In fact, retail sales numbers for September blew away expectations, once again showing that a recession is nowhere in sight.
After a rough couple of months, the S&P is trending higher in October. The economy is still solid. In fact, retail sales numbers for September blew away expectations, once again showing that a recession is nowhere in sight.
This market is officially flirting with ugly. The S&P is now down about 7% from the 52-week high and not far from correction territory, down 10% from the high.
The selling intensified over the last week after the Fed struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at last week’s meeting. The gist of the Fed’s message is that rates may well go higher and will stay higher for longer. The statement pours cold water on the notion that rates will be cut in the near future and reinforces the realization that higher rates are here to stay.
The selling intensified over the last week after the Fed struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at last week’s meeting. The gist of the Fed’s message is that rates may well go higher and will stay higher for longer. The statement pours cold water on the notion that rates will be cut in the near future and reinforces the realization that higher rates are here to stay.
This market is officially flirting with ugly. The S&P is now down about 7% from the 52-week high and not far from correction territory, down 10% from the high.
The selling intensified over the last week after the Fed struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at last week’s meeting. The gist of the Fed’s message is that rates may well go higher and will stay higher for longer. The statement pours cold water on the notion that rates will be cut in the near future and reinforces the realization that higher rates are here to stay.
The selling intensified over the last week after the Fed struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone at last week’s meeting. The gist of the Fed’s message is that rates may well go higher and will stay higher for longer. The statement pours cold water on the notion that rates will be cut in the near future and reinforces the realization that higher rates are here to stay.
The surprisingly strong market of 2023 has been sputtering. The S&P 500 moved lower in August and is lower so far in September. But there’s no alarming selloff. The index is 3.6% lower than it was at the end of July. It’s mostly just a pause so far.
Alerts
We sold half our WYNN shares in August for a 36% gain, and have an unrealized profit of 76% on our remaining position. I’m going to sell another half of our shares today, to protect some of our remaining profit.
Cummins, which makes engines for trucks, heavy machinery and other industrial and transport applications, fell 4.6% on Friday after Tesla unveiled its new electric semi-truck, increasing competition in the long-haul trucking market. Cummins also held an analyst day on Friday, but apparently failed to impress.
We’re moving this stock to Hold today, after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to neutral.
As a result of the selloff in financial stocks this week, we’re selling one stock and moving another to Hold. I also include a special update on another holding that issued a hurricane-related business update on Wednesday morning.
One of our stocks reported earnings last night, and although sales were stronger than expected, EPS fell one cent short of estimates.
The market suffered a major selloff yesterday; the Dow declined nearly 1%, the S&P 500 lost 1.5%, and the Nasdaq closed over 2% lower. I’m not entirely surprised, there have been red flags popping up under the surface of the market for weeks, as discussed in our regular updates.
Two of our stocks reported earnings and opened lower this morning. I’m keeping one on Hold and moving the other, which was rated Buy, to Hold as well.
This stock reported first-quarter earnings that beat expectations last night. However, the stock declined in after-hours trading.
ADP reported strong first-quarter EPS but slightly weaker-than-expected revenue yesterday, and the stock has declined over 5%.
The broad market finally firmed up last week. After closing below their 50-day lines the previous Friday, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all found support early last week, then rebounded strongly at the end of the week. However, while the market is firming, four of our holdings stumbled on earnings last week.
This stock reported earnings that met estimates this morning, but revenue fell short of expectations and the stock is about 3% lower mid-morning.