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CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s interest rate-related wobbles this week, but he’s not changing his tune--while he remains flexible, all of the primary evidence remains encouraging, with the odds continuing to favor this choppy period being a normal rest phase before the next leg up. Moreover, he’s seeing a lot more names approach attractive entry points in a variety of sectors, as he runs through a ton of names to consider.
Stocks Discussed: HUBS, CFLT, NOW, NFLX, APO, ACLS, ADBE, MDB, MTZ, SHOP, DDOG, CELH, PLAY, BILL, NE
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week, with Chris on vacation, Brad is joined by Tyler Laundon of Cabot Early Opportunities and Cabot Small-Cap Confidential to discuss the current state of the market. Then, Brad and Tyler explore investing in companies benefiting from major trends (like artificial intelligence), separating the signal from the noise, and how an analyst identifies co-beneficiaries or “picks and shovels” that are likely to ride the trend’s coattails. To register for Tyler’s upcoming webinar, “3 Little-Known Stocks to Take Advantage of the AI Boom,” click here.
Cabot Webinar
3 Little-Known Stocks to Take Advantage of the AI Boom
FREE WEBINAR: July 13, 2023 Sign up now.
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts from January 18, 2023 is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Pro member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
PORTFOLIO UPDATES THIS WEEK
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue June 29: It’s not a perfect picture, but the vast majority of evidence out there remains bullish, and that’s especially true for the vital leading index (Nasdaq) and leading growth stocks, which have rested normally after beefy, big-volume advances. We’re putting a bit more money to work today by averaging up in a current name, and will ideally put more to work when either (a) a couple of our current holdings overcome resistance (to average up), and/or (b) when some names on our watch list consolidate a bit longer.
In tonight’s issue, we talk about some of the confusion we’re hearing out there about sentiment (not a worry at all in our book), talk about one non-growth sector that reminds us a lot of oil stocks a couple of years ago (before that big run) and go in-depth on some new ideas and, of course, all our holdings.
Bi-weekly Update July 7: WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic but keep an open mind. At this point, our market timing indicators remain bullish and we’re seeing little abnormal action among leading stocks—that said, the Fed/interest rate situation refuses to go away, and near term, some more shaking of the tree is certainly possible to raise the fear level. Tonight, we have no new buys or sells, but we’ll place Inspire Medical (INSP) and Monday.com (MNDY) on Hold and see how things progress. Our cash position will remain in the 30% range.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue July 3: Overall, the market’s action remains as close to pristine as you could hope for. Under the hood, there has been a touch of rotation, with some growth stocks chopping around while cyclical, construction and materials names perk up. All in all, we wouldn’t be surprised if growth continued to catch its breath, as the recent pullback was very brief, but that’s short-term nitpicking: While dips and potholes will come, the bottom line is that the vast majority of evidence is bullish, so you should be, too. We’ll bump our Market Monitor up to a level 8, and think adding exposure (ideally on dips) makes sense.
This week’s list reflects the broadening we’re seeing out there, with a few tech names but many others from other corners of the market. Our Top Pick is a long-term winner in the aerospace and defense field whose stock just broke out.
Movers & Shakers July 7: Despite the holiday trading action on Monday and no trading on Tuesday, things have been a bit dicey this week, with the major indexes (especially the broader indexes) down as the market’s old bugaboo—interest rates—spike toward new multi-year highs. Moreover, this week, we saw some leading stocks take hits as well, as some of the laggard areas of the market (like financial stocks) took the selling in stride.
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue July 5: Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the July 2023 issue.
Almost like an annual rite of passage, major banks reported their Federal Reserve stress test results last week. All major banks passed, in that their capital levels were in excess of the minimum requirements under the Doomsday Scenario conditions outlined in the test assumptions. We’re not the biggest fans of these tests, for reasons outlined in our monthly letter.
Citigroup remains a riskier bank relative to other majors, but also has a higher return-potential share valuation, plus a 4.5% dividend yield to reward patient investors.
Weekly Update June 20: Here in New England, the weather can change quickly. A sunny morning can seemingly without warning turn into a rainstorm by the afternoon. Not that long ago, we had three seasons in a single day – snow in the morning, followed by rain, then summer-like temperatures by three in the afternoon. There’s an old saying, “If you don’t like the weather, wait a few minutes.”
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue June 14: Despite all the current issues, the market is doing gangbusters.
The S&P 500 is up over 12% YTD. And the year isn’t even half over. The index has also rallied more than 20% from the bear market low in October. That’s the definition of a bull market.
But things aren’t as rosy as they seem. This is the thinnest rally I’ve ever seen. Just ten stocks account for the entire YTD rise in the S&P 500 index. The other 490 stocks have collectively gone nowhere.
Sure, these same stocks can continue to drive the market higher for a while. But the situation is precarious. Eventually, this rally will have to broaden out or peter out. Either scenario should bode well for defensive stocks.
There is still lots of risk. Even if a recession never happens, it’s reasonable to expect that the economy will slow in the second half of the year. And overall market earnings have already contracted for the last two quarters.
The relative performance of defensive stocks historically thrives in a slowing economy. If the rally broadens in such an environment, it will need participation from the defensive sectors. If the market pulls back, defense should be the best place to be.
Sector performance rotates. Things change. Defensive stocks have been dogs in the first half of this year. But that half is about over. The second half is what’s important now. It’s time to embrace the defensive plays ahead of a likely period of relative outperformance.
In this issue I highlight three of the best defensive stocks on the market.
Weekly Update July 6: The S&P 500 delivered an impressive 16% return in the first half. Can the good times continue in the second half?
A big part of the latest surge higher has been the artificial intelligence (AI) excitement. After Nvidia (NVDA) blew away expectations citing far greater demand for AI technology, the market-leading tech sector caught fire. But returns were impressive even before then as the market is sensing a soft landing.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue June 21: In the June Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we talk Artificial Intelligence (AI) and break down the technology into a few buckets of opportunity that make it a little easier to understand. I also profile five ways investors can put their money to work in companies with AI exposure. Enjoy!
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue June 27: Few stocks have participated in the YTD rally. In fact, just ten large-cap technology stocks accounted for just about all the market gains this year. The market has so far shunned defense and favored growth. But that situation is unlikely to persist.
There is still lots of risk. Inflation could be stickier, and the Fed could be more hawkish than currently anticipated. Even if a recession never happens, it’s reasonable to expect that the economy will slow in the second half of the year. And overall market earnings have already contracted for the last two quarters.
The relative performance of defensive stocks historically thrives in a slowing economy. If the rally broadens in such an environment, it will need participation from the defensive sectors. If the market pulls back, defense should be the best place to be.
I highlight a new buy-recommended stock in the issue. It is a legendary income stock that pays dividends on a monthly basis. It’s also near the lowest price level of the past two years.
Weekly Update July 5: It has been a fabulous rally that has proven naysayers wrong. The S&P 500 is up about 15% YTD just before the midpoint. Stocks have also rallied more than 20% from the October low into a new bull market.
How much gas is left in the tank?
Inflation is falling and the Fed is almost done hiking rates. It is also looking less likely that there will be a recession this year. Investors are optimistic that we can get to the other side of this hiking cycle without too much pain.
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue May 31: It’s no secret that a fresh fascination with artificial intelligence has ignited shares of companies like Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), while “safety stocks” like Apple (AAPL) have rebounded on recession fears. Shares of more prosaic technology companies have lagged, but a few offer highly relevant albeit slow-growth products and services, making their businesses highly resilient. They are often well-supported by durable balance sheets and capable management. We highlight four such companies.
As a follow-up to our April edition that featured banks, we have found additional interesting financial stocks by looking at the 13F filings of like-minded value investors. We discuss three that saw sizeable new purchases or meaningful additions to already-sizeable holdings by well-respected value managers.
Our feature recommendation this month is Tyson Foods (TSN), a major producer of chicken, beef and pork products. Its earnings and shares have tumbled due to an unusual simultaneous downturn in all three protein groups. The hardest time to buy a commodity cyclical is at the bottom of the cycle, as there appears to be no end in sight to the malaise. We think this is the time to buy Tyson.
Weekly Update July 7: This was a quiet week for our stocks. Earnings season starts next Friday, with Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting, followed by Nokia (NOK) and First Horizon (FHN) the next week. Based on the preliminary calendar, the earnings deluge starts on Tuesday, July 27.
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine July: With airline and cruise bookings eclipsing pre-pandemic levels, it appears that vacationers’ pent-up travel demands are finally being unleashed in this “revenge travel” summer. Here’s how you can save money as you tick a few items off your own travel bucket list and profit from the most in-demand travel companies.
Stock of the Month June 8: The markets have been fairly volatile this past month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sits at just about the same place we were in last month’s issue. But the S&P 500 has been on a tear, up about 140 points, and the Nasdaq has risen some 50 points due to the momentum in the tech sector, where the average stock is up more than 33% year to date.
Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary stocks have moved along nicely in the past month, on average up 32% and 22%, respectively.
Growth stocks are still outperforming value in all capitalization categories.
ASK THE EXPERTS
Prime Question for Mike: Hi Mike, Thought I’d get a second opinion on Salesforce.com(CRM). I own a tiny position and thinking of adding a bit more based on the chart configuration. Fundamentals are decent. Thoughts?
Mike: Good question. Yeah, I can’t argue with it, except to say (to nitpick) that the 220 area (the high before the recent earnings gap down) does seem to be a bit of resistance, so keep that in mind. But overall, yes, it’s settled down a bit and here and the 50-day is approaching – I think a good risk-reward, but if it really dives below 200, that would change things.