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Current Market Outlook


The major indexes found some decent support last week, rallying back to the top of their ranges, but overall they’re still thrashing around in the same range they’ve occupied since early August, keeping the intermediate-term trend sideways-to-down. The one thing that did change late last week was a bout of rotation, with money flowing into the beaten-down areas (financials, transports, energy, etc.); it’s something to keep an eye on, but we can’t say it’s a new trend quite yet. All in all, the market is showing us a lot of movement, but little net progress—and thus, our overall advice hasn’t changed. We’re keeping our Market Monitor at a level 5, meaning you should be choosy and keep things small on the buy side, while holding some cash and honoring stops and loss limits with your weaker performers.

The good news, as it has been all year, is that there remain many stocks that looks ready to enjoy meaningful upmoves if the market can get its act together. Our Top Pick is New Oriental Education (EDU), a rare China-related stock that’s making new highs on good volume.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Burlington Stores (BURL)	193.95	195-198	179-182
Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC)	89.83	86-88	79.5-81
Meritage Homes (MTH)	102.20	63-66	57.5-59
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)	123.40	95.5-98.5	88-90
New Oriental Education (EDU)	113.97	106-108	98-100
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)	123.32	129-133	120-122
Tandem Diabetes (TNDM)	74.77	67-70	60-62
Trex Company (TREX)	117.56	80-83	74-76
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	40.5-42.5	37-38
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)	34.43	28-29	25.5-26.5

I hope you had an enjoyable and relaxing summer. Wall Street is back to work this week, and Apple (AAPL) is launching a new product or two next week, so get ready for stocks to start moving again.

The market has been all over the place so far in August, with some huge daily declines and advances depending on the news of the day. While the continued rebounds are a good sign buyers are lurking out there, the fact is the intermediate-term trend isn’t up, so we think it’s best to stick with a cautious stance—jettisoning your portfolio of losers and laggards (as we’ve done in recent weeks) while looking for either undervalued or resilient stocks to take their place. Our choice this week is a blue chip that’s cheap, near support, pays a nice dividend and is in position to benefit from any bounce in interest rates.

The market has finally begun to consolidate after a heady eight-week run in the major indexes and leading stocks. It’s never fun to see things retrench, and we do think the next couple of weeks (very roughly speaking) could see more choppy, tedious trading. But our focus remains on the intermediate- and longer-term picture, and on that front, the evidence remains bullish, so we remain heavily invested.



The Model Portfolio has been steadily putting money to work, including filling out two positions last week. We now have eight stocks and a cash position of around 14%.



In tonight’s issue, we give our latest thoughts on all our positions and write about yet another unique, longer-term bullish occurrence that bodes well going forward.

Current Market Outlook


Impeachment talk stole the headlines last week, and China trade issues remain one of the chief economic concerns, but overall, the market remains healthy, with all major indexes in uptrends and most just a couple of weeks off their recent highs. Nevertheless, making money remains difficult, as the forces of rotation have been sending old leaders to the locker room and trotting out fresher new leaders to take their place. This is actually good for the health of the bull market, but it does make investing more difficult, so you should continue to tread carefully, in particular by choosing low-risk entry points and being ruthless at cutting loose your worst performers. As for the market monitor, we’ll stand pat this week, as the flurry of selling late last week has created some decent entry points.

This week’s list includes a great variety of stocks, and our Top Pick is a lower-risk insurance stock, Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), which has been building a base over the past couple of months and looking ripe to resume its uptrend.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)	89.27	87-91	84-86
Chubb Group (CB)	153.34	156-164	150-152
Entegris (ENTG)	48.08	46-48	41-42
Garmin (GRMN)	97.45	81-87	77-78
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	154-168	145-147
Jabil Inc. (JBL)	41.50	34-36	31-32
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)	66.65	62-65	59-61
Synnex Corp. (SNX)	129.70	110-113	105-108
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)	27.51	24-26	22-23
Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WW)	35.33	35-38	30-32

There are five growth stocks in our Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor portfolios that offer dividend yields in excess of 5%. That’s crazy! Stocks with rising profits in combination with very large dividend yields are generally uncommon, and can indicate an extreme undervaluation of those companies’ share prices. Dividends can tell you a lot about a company, or about the broader stock market. I cover the dividend topic in more detail in today’s issue.

The broad market remains in fine health, with all major indexes trending higher and sentiment measures telling us this market has not yet reached the stage where amateurs are sucked in to buy at the top. Thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks that fit your investment needs.
Today’s recommendation is a very large company in an industry that has major ebbs and flows due to circumstances that are beyond this company’s control. But right now, conditions are excellent, and the 4.3% yield is an indication that the stock is cheap as well.
As for the other stocks in the portfolio, they look great, with six at or near their all-time highs. Details inside.

The cannabis sector remains in a correction, with both marijuana and CBD stocks trending lower, giving up some of their early-year gains—and perhaps building a bottom here.

In the meantime, more and more peripheral companies are getting in on the action, and we have been increasing our exposure to these in recent weeks while still holding substantial cash.

This week we’re selling one more of the pure-play marijuana companies, raising the portfolio’s cash level to about 27%.

Full details in the issue.

The broad market remains in fine health, with all major indexes trending higher and sentiment measures still bullish. Thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks that fit your investment needs.

Today’s recommendation is a leader in its field, with great long-term growth prospects—as well as dependable recurring revenue—as the U.S. transitions away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

As for the current portfolio, most of our stocks are doing great, but we’ve got to sell one, and it’s a tough choice. Details inside.

Current Market Outlook


Last week’s action was encouraging, with the major indexes snapping back decently from Monday’s selloff and with many individual growth stocks either acting resiliently and/or reacting well to earnings. That said, three up days (Tuesday-Thursday last week) are not enough to reverse the prior meltdown—right now, all major indexes are below their 50-day moving averages and, generally speaking, the overall intermediate-term trend is neutral-to-negative. We’re not advising you to hole up in your bunker, but the onus is on the bulls to prove that the tariff-induced decline was a shakeout; until then, it’s best to remain cautious by holding some cash, keeping new buys small and making sure your losers and laggards don’t slip much further.

Going along with the action in growth stocks, this week’s list is chock-full of recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick is TransDigm (TDG), a solid 20%-ish grower in the aerospace field that gapped on earnings and is set to pay a huge one-time dividend.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	75-78.5	64-66
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	144-147	128-131
Lattice Semi (LSCC)	23.92	17.5-18.5	15.5-16.2
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)	261.52	243-250	218-222
Medpace (MEDP)	76.28	75.5-78.5	67.5-69.5
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	124-130	107-110
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	85-88	75-77
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	80-84	70-72
TransDigm (TDG)	599.41	525-545	475-485
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	95-98	88-90

Current Market Outlook


The rapid spread of China’s coronavirus provided the impetus for a selloff that began last Friday and exploded onto the scene today. Where does that leave us? First, the intermediate-term trend of the indexes is still positive but close to the fence; the big-cap indexes look OK, but the broader measures (small and mid caps) are right around their key 50-day lines. Beyond the charts, it’s likely that more time is needed for investors to trim/hedge after four months of straight-up action. As for leading stocks, we’re taking it on a case-by-case basis—some are looking ragged and ripe for a deeper correction, but most are pulling back normally. If you’re heavily invested, our advice is to follow the usual plan: Hold most of your shares in your strong, profitable stocks, while selling or keeping tight leashes on losers and laggards. We’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 6.

On the buy side, newer names that are holding up well should be near the top of your shopping list. This week features plenty of those, with our Top Pick being Kansas City Southern (KSU), a reliable grower that just reacted well to earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)	52.43	50.5-52.5	45.5-47
Bristol-Myers (BMY)	66.24	62-64	59-60.5
Datadog (DDOG)	81.52	39.5-41.5	36.5-38
Kansas City Southern (KSU)	176.54	162-165	150-152
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	42.5-44.5	38-39
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	16.68	18-19	16-16.5
STMicroelectronics (STM)	30.09	27.5-28.5	25-25.5
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)	78.41	57-58.5	53-54
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	137.5-141	127.5-129
Zillow (Z)	76.64	46-48	42.5-44