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Current Market Outlook


The market had a relatively quiet week, with the major indexes slipping a fraction of a percent on light volume and most leading stocks marking time after solid advances the prior two weeks. So far, this action is totally acceptable, but the key will be what happens from here—a couple of large, high-volume selloffs would put a serious dent in the rally, but upside follow through in the indexes and many leading growth stocks would go a long way toward confirming that the January-May market correction is over. For now, we advise sticking with a “lean bullish” mentality; we’re OK doing some buying, but also picking your spots and holding some cash as we look for follow through. Our Market Monitor remains unchanged.

This week’s list has a ton of strong stocks in a variety of growth-oriented sectors. Our Top Pick is LPL Financial (LPLA), a mid-sized Bull Market stock that is acting very well and recently crushed earnings expectations.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
51job, Inc. (JOBS)	0.00	99-103	92-94
Baozun (BZUN)	44.24	51-53	46.5-47.5
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	25.5-27.5	23-24.5
Illumina Inc. (ILMN)	289.74	260-270	244-249
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	181-188	169-172
LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA)	85.22	69-72	63-65
Penn National Gaming (PENN)	45.38	33.5-35	30.5-31.5
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	64-67	58-60
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)	52.50	53-56	48-49.5
WildHorse Resource (WRD)	0.00	25-27	21.5-22.5

The intermediate-term trend in emerging market stocks remains down, and we continue to advise a substantial degree of caution. At the same time, the fact that the indexes (both emerging markets and domestic) have been able to hold above their February lows means there’s a chance that a renewed advance can begin at any time. But we won’t predict; we’ll just follow the market’s lead, while keeping you apprised of the action in the highest potential emerging markets stocks we can find. Today we add another name to the watch list; it’s an old friend that just hit a new high a couple of days ago.

Current Market Outlook


The broad market continues to be challenging, with last week’s low having the potential to kick off a renewed market uptrend and at the same time holding the potential to establish a floor that—if it collapses—could bring a fresh round of pain. In short, the path ahead is foggy and continued caution is advised. But don’t put your head in the sand! Our OptiMo system continues to dig up top-performing stocks with the potential to bring you substantial profits, if you play your cards right—and one of the most promising characteristics of these stocks is that they tend to be under-owned, meaning far more institutional money could arrive to boost them higher over time.

Today’s roster includes some strong breakouts and a handful of set-ups, and our Top Pick is AMN Healthcare (AMN), which has a steadily growing business in the field of healthcare staffing.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AMN Healthcare Services Inc. (AMN)	0.00	62-67	57.5-60
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	773.32	405-420	375-385
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	71-74	64-67
Integra LifeSciences (IART)	0.00	57-62	52.5-54
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)	73.22	67-70	66-64
Novocure (NVCR)	0.00	25-27	23-24
Oil States International (OIS)	0.00	35-37	32-33
Phillips 66 (PSX)	0.00	107-111	99-102
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	0.00	285-295	265-270
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)	0.00	11.7-12.5	10.2-10.6

Current Market Outlook


After the umpteenth test of their February lows and 200-day moving averages, the major indexes have surged over the past couple of days, with many potential leading stocks going along for the ride. Put together, the action is very encouraging and raises the odds that we’ve seen a tradeable bottom. However, despite the uptick, we haven’t yet gotten a green light from our intermediate-term—a good day or two from here could do the trick, but we don’t anticipate signals. Thus, right here, we’re sticking with our current, cautious stance, though we’re keeping our eyes open for definitive signs that a new intermediate-term uptrend has begun.

This week’s list is chock-full of stocks that look like they want to move higher if this rally is the real McCoy. Our Top Pick is Shake Shack (SHAK), which catapulted higher on earnings last week on its heaviest volume ever. Keep positions small and use a loose leash.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Box Inc. (BOX)	0.00	23-25	21-22
Ecopetrol (EC)	22.17	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)	0.00	74-77	68-70
Realpage (RP)	0.00	57-59.5	53-54
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)	120.93	85-88	76-78
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	54-58	48-50
Shutterfly (SFLY)	94.71	89-93	82-84
Splunk (SPLK)	207.67	106-110	97-100
Valero Energy (VLO)	97.40	109-113	99-101
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	51-54	46-48

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We haven’t yet seen the buyers retake control (the intermediate-term trend is down and few stocks are moving up), so we’re sticking with a cautious stance. In the Model Portfolio, we are restoring one Buy rating, but we’re standing pat with 45% cash and are waiting patiently for the trend to turn up.

Current Market Outlook


The positives are starting to accumulate when you’re talking about some secondary measures of the market’s performance—many growth stocks are holding up well, the broad market showed positive divergences when the indexes retested their February lows and the market’s clearly shrugged off a bunch of bad news. All of that is encouraging, and we’re nudging our Market Monitor up a notch in response. However, we’re still advising a relatively cautious stance because the market’s intermediate-term trend hasn’t turned up; most major indexes are still below key moving averages and, at best, are basically stuck in the middle of three-month trading ranges. We’re still in favor of giving your resilient stocks a chance to get going, and we don’t think the evidence supports being outright defensive. But holding some cash on the sideline, picking entry points carefully and/or keeping new positions on the small side still make sense.

This week’s list has many stocks that have staged breakouts (or come close) in recent days, even as the market is still iffy. Our Top Pick is WPX Energy (WPX), one of many oil stocks that’s come to life as that sector sets up.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alcoa (AA)	0.00	52-55	47-50
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	46-48	43-44.5
Fiat Chrysler (FCAU)	0.00	22.5-23.5	20-20.5
GoDaddy (GDDY)	0.00	60-62.5	56.5-58
Heron Therapeutics (HRTX)	35.25	28.5-30.5	25-26.5
HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC)	0.00	54-56	49.5-51
Melco Resorts (MLCO)	0.00	29.5-31	27-28
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	64.5-67	59-61
Semtech (SMTC)	51.09	41.5-43	38.5-39.5
WPX Energy (WPX)	0.00	14.5-15.5	13.1-13.7

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Today, most major indexes have pulled back to nearly their early February lows, so short-term, a bounce from here would be quite normal, though longer-term, further weakness cannot be ruled out. But we don’t need to know where the market is going. We only need to know what it’s doing now—and watch carefully what our own stocks are doing—and react appropriately. Today that means selling two stocks, downgrading one to hold, and upgrading one to buy. Details inside.

In this kind of so-so atmosphere, we are taking exactly what the market hands us and making decisions based on what the charts show us. That means a little selling today, but we also have an exciting and very new stock for our watch list. Read on for all the details.

As we leave behind last week’s market lows—as well as the peak fears of tariff wars—it remains critically important to focus on the action of the market itself, and not be swayed by the news of the day. Which brings me to today’s recommendation, a fast-growing company with a revolutionary product whose stock hit new highs recently and is primed to do so again. You’ll find full details in the issue.

The long-term trend of the market remains up, while the intermediate trend remains down, though the current rally is working to change that—and may well succeed. In any case, we’re seeing growing numbers of strong stocks, and today’s recommendation is one of them.

It’s a little-known technology stock providing a valuable public service, with a high rate of recurring income. I think you’ll like it.

The broad market has gotten jumpy again, but it’s no reason to panic. In today’s issue, we review why dividend stocks are better in downturns, add a conservative-aggressive stock to the Safe Income tier, and have earnings updates on all our stocks (four have already reported; the rest will over the next week.)

Current Market Outlook


While the major indexes took another hit last week, we actually saw a few encouraging signs from the market—the broad market, for instance, continues to display some positive divergences (i.e., it’s in better shape now than back in February, when the indexes were at a similar level) and many leading stocks held key support (often near their 50-day lines), with a few actually shooting to new highs. All of that is a good reason to keep your antennae up—but with the major indexes still in intermediate-term downtrends, we’re keeping our Market Monitor in neutral territory. If this is the start of a sustained rally, there will be plenty of opportunities to jump on, but right now it’s best to mostly stand pat, holding resilient stocks but also keeping some cash on the sideline.

This week’s list is a mixed bag, with lots of turnarounds and some growth stocks sprinkled in. Our Top Pick is Etsy (ETSY), which, despite a big run, has refused to budge during the market’s latest downdraft.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
BofI Holding (BOFI)	42.93	39-41	36.5-38
Delek (DK)	0.00	39.5-41.5	36-37.5
Etsy (ETSY)	112.97	26-27.5	23.5-24.5
Kirby (KEX)	0.00	79-81.5	73.5-75
LGI Homes (LGIH)	86.04	69-73	64-66
NetApp (NTAP)	0.00	61-64	56-58
New Relic (NEWR)	103.70	72-74.5	65.5-67
Planet Fitness (PLNT)	0.00	37-39	34-35.5
Proofpoint (PFPT)	113.79	113-118	104-106.5
Urban Outfitters (URBN)	0.00	36.5-38.5	33.5-35