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The big picture for the market is that the uptrend is intact but under the surface we’re continuing to see pockets of turbulence. While the S&P 500 is just 2% off its high from last week and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index hit a fresh all-time high yesterday, the Nasdaq is 6% off its high and trading right on its 50-day line.

It’s been another week of mixed stock performance and assorted headlines that collectively give me the sense that, while a lot of investors may be shifting money around, there’s no real consensus yet on what will work and what won’t in the near-term.

While still very choppy, this past week has been much better than the two weeks prior as the selloff in growth stocks has cooled and more investors have begun to think longer term. While the risk of inflation is still an overhang on high-multiple stocks, the passage of time allows global supply chains to re-adjust and for people/companies/policy setters to get a better handle on what the legitimate inflation risk is.

The biggest stories this week weren’t all that different from last week, namely supply chains, interest rates/inflation, and Covid. But this week has a decidedly different feel to it, possibly because we’ve added earnings season into the mix and, so far, that’s going pretty well.

The market, and especially the small-cap index, has been a little soft after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, but all things considered it’s hard to say anything is wrong. The move down in U.S. Treasury yields is a bit of a head-scratcher and the noise in the oil market is potentially of interest as consumers ponder charges at the pump. These are noteworthy items but not changing any big-picture thinking at this point.

We’ve seen a nice little rally as we head into the waning weeks of summer. The S&P 500 has been incredibly strong and even the S&P 600 Index, which hasn’t made any net new progress since March, popped off last week’s low and is back to within 5% of an all-time high.

It continues to be a very tough market, and with our exposure to small- and mid-cap growth stocks our portfolio continues to feel pressure. After some signs of stabilization last week the sellers are back in control this week and many names look destined to retest their March lows, or possibly dip a little lower.

Despite more grumblings out there about how “we are due for a pullback,” stocks continue to hold up. In fact, many growth stocks have done far better than that and are jumping higher on almost a daily basis.

Small caps have pulled back ever so slightly from the all-time highs of last week. But that’s not the big news of the week. The larger event was yesterday’s Fed meeting, during which Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that a start to tapering of asset purchases was still a “ways off” but that this was a “talking about talking about meeting.”

Well, it’s about time some buyers showed up. While we can’t yet characterize the move in higher growth small- and mid-cap stocks as a rally per se, it’s not premature to say that sentiment has turned up when it comes to these types of stocks.

It’s been another mostly constructive week as many of our stocks inch higher and the economic picture continues to improve.

This has been another tough week for most growth-oriented small cap stocks as the sellers have clearly taken control. There are easy targets to point to as driving the decline, namely fear of inflation. But the reality is it is mostly just a lot of uncertainty about the path of the recovery that’s likely driving the selling. And the fact that most stocks are still up very nicely over the last twelve months, meaning a lot of room for profit taking.

In such an environment it’s easy to assume the worst and miss the flipside of the equation – great companies trading at prices that just a month ago we would have considered incredible. Market volatility and uncertainty are creating great opportunities.

So much for the technology selloff. The sector dipped its toe into correction territory and has roared back with a vengeance.

September lived up to its bad reputation. The S&P 500 fell 4.8% for the month. But September is over. Now it’s October, which is historically only the second-worst month of the year. What now?

What inflation? What supply-chain issues? Headlines be damned. This market is on the cusp of yet another new all-time high.

Today is the expiration of our three February covered calls. The big picture takeaway is that all three will expire for full profits, you don’t need to act on any of these trades, and come Monday we will no longer own a stock or option position in MRO, TECK and ABBV.

Based on the below press release highlighting the agreement for Australia’s Lynas to build a rare earths refinery in Texas, I recommend you sell your MP Materials (MP) position.

Earnings season has taken its first bite out of one of our holdings.

So far, October looks better than September for the market. After falling 4.8% in September, the worst month since the pandemic recovery began, the S&P 500 is up slightly for October.