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In tonight\'s issue, we write about the importance of following your plan, especially soon after you buy a stock. We dive into our new \"7.5% Rule,\" which is another in a long line of studies that show higher prices to be very likely in the months down the road.

Current Market Outlook


We’ve begun to see a few worrisome developments when it comes to the market. Small-cap indexes have lagged badly and haven’t made any progress in three months. A few sectors (especially commodity-related) have broken down. And breadth in general has weakened, with the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows expanding in recent days. However, we see a lot of good news, too—the intermediate-term trend is still pointed up, lots of strong stocks have consolidated normally in recent days and we’ve even seen a few new leaders begin to emerge on big volume. Altogether, it’s fair to say that the evidence has weakened so we’re knocking down our Market Monitor back to a level 7 and will be watching events closely. But until the uptrend is cracked, you should remain mostly bullish, holding your strong performers and looking for new buys as opportunities arise.

This week’s list has a wide variety of stocks and sectors, including a few names we haven’t seen in a long time. Our Top Pick is Builders Firstsource (BLDR), a good-sized supplier of building products that just gapped up strongly on earnings after trashing earnings estimates.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Autohome (ATHM)	98.65	34-36	31-32
Builders FirstSource (BLDR)	44.12	14.5-15.5	13.5-14
Exelixis (EXEL)	27.35	20.5-22	19-19.5
Leucadia (LUK)	0.00	26-27	24-25
ON Semiconductor (ON)	24.07	14.5-15.5	13.5-14
PulteGroup (PHM)	45.93	22.5-23.5	21-21.5
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	60-64	53-55
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	0.00	190-195	175-178
Synopsys (SNPS)	137.53	69-72	64-66
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)	123.32	56-59	53-54

Current Market Outlook


Beneath the market’s surface, there’s been lots of rotation and volatility, with buyers focusing on the laggards of late last year (especially the big-cap growth stocks), while the strong materials and transportation sectors continue to consolidate. (Even as the major indexes probe new high ground, the number of stocks hitting new highs is way down versus a few weeks ago.) That’s something to keep an eye on, but the trends of the major indexes and most stocks are still up, sellers have been unable to put much of a dent in the market despite the huge post-election run and few stocks have broken down. Until that changes, we’re keeping our Market Monitor in bullish territory, though it’s probably best to be a bit more discerning on the buy side, looking for tight setups and big volume breakouts.

Tonight’s list remains heavy on turnaround stocks, especially those in cyclical industries; the odds continue to favor higher prices as these stocks consolidate their strong post-election gains. Our Top Pick is AK Steel (AKS)—you can buy a little here and look to add shares on a powerful move to new highs.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AK Steel Holding (AKS)	0.00	9.9-10.4	9.0-9.3
Atwood Oceanics (ATW)	0.00	12.5-13.5	11-11.5
CF Industries (CF)	45.23	32-33	29-30
Clovis Oncology (CLVS)	0.00	45-48	41-43
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)	121.03	57-59	54-55
Greenbrier (GBX)	57.73	44.5-47	40.5-42
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF-A)	0.00	25-27	23-24
Oil States International (OIS)	0.00	39-41	36-37
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	45-47	42-43
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	0.00	170-175	157-160

Current Market Outlook


Not much has changed with the major indexes during the past week—all remain in intermediate- and longer-term uptrends, with small- and mid-cap indexes leading the way and the Nasdaq pulling up the rear. Below the surface, we have seen some profit taking in among many of the market’s top stocks and sectors (even the super-strong industrials, commodities and transports), and given the huge runs those names have seen during the past month, further retrenchment is certainly possible. But when we consider all of the evidence, the odds strongly favor dips being buyable, as pullbacks or shakeout-type action will probably lead to higher prices down the road. We’ll keep our Market Monitor in bullish territory at level 8.

This week’s list is heavy on turnaround stories, especially those in the industrial and commodity sectors. Our Top Pick is Steel Dynamics (STLD), a leader of the steel sector that’s starting to pull back after a big run. You can buy some here or (preferably) on further weakness.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Cavium (CAVM)	0.00	61-63.5	55-57
DeVry (DV)	0.00	29.5-32	27-28
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	67-69.5	61-62
PDC Energy (PDCE)	0.00	77-81	70-72
Signature Bank (SBNY)	0.00	147-151	136-138
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	0.00	35-37	31-32.5
SunCoke Energy (SXC)	0.00	11-12	10-10.5
Tailored Brands (TLRD)	0.00	24.5-27	22-23.5
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)	0.00	14-15	12-12.5
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)	0.00	63-67	56.5-58

Current Market Outlook


With some weekend polls showing the chance of a “Brexit” lessening, the market gapped up this morning and finished with solid gains. Today’s rally is obviously encouraging and hints that, should the vote on Thursday go as expected, buyers could take control afterwards. Still, as always, we don’t predict—right now, the evidence remains more bullish than not, so it’s best to hold your strong, profitable stocks and add new leaders as they develop. That said, the intermediate-term trend of the indexes is mostly neutral, and until the uncertainty clears up, it’s a good idea to keep new positions smaller than normal, and to honor your stops and loss limits.



The good news is that most top performing stocks handled the market’s 3% dip in fine fashion. This week’s list is another batch of (mostly familiar) names that look great. Our Top Pick is Weibo (WB), a little-known Chinese firm that looks like one of the market’s top glamour stocks.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
wb (wb)	0.00	26-27.5	23.5-24.5
symc (symc)	0.00	19.5-20.5	18-18.5
simo (simo)	0.00	43-45	39.5-40.5
oled (oled)	0.00	67-69	60-62
nvro (nvro)	0.00	71.5-74	66.5-67.5
nuva (nuva)	0.00	57-59	54-55
lulu (lulu)	0.00	69.5-71.5	66-66.5
five (five)	0.00	44-45.5	41-41.5
cprt (cprt)	0.00	47.5-49.5	44-44.5
Barrick Gold (ABX)	0.00	19-20.5	17-17.5

Current Market Outlook


With Greece on the brink of defaulting on some loans and/or exiting the eurozone, the uncertainly of what’s to come caused sellers to drive the indexes and most stocks down sharply today. The straight-down action of the past few days, which came on the heels of some encouraging gains, is a yellow flag, as are the downmoves of many stocks. As we’ve been writing, you should honor your stops (many stocks tripped their stops today) and be holding at least some cash on the sideline. That said, while we’re knocking our Market Monitor down a notch today, the bigger picture hasn’t changed—the major indexes are still within their multi-month ranges, and the best stocks are pulling back normally, so we don’t advise selling wholesale.


This week’s list has many strong stocks that have held up well during the recent selloff. Our Top Pick is Community Health Systems (CYH), which just exploded out of a base following a big court ruling last week. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)	0.00	141-145	135-137
Sealed Air (SEE)	0.00	51-52.5	47.5-48
Lennar (LEN)	61.85	50-52	47-47.5
IACI (IACI)	0.00	77-79	73-74
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	84.5-87	81.5-82
Community Health Systems (CYH)	0.00	61-63	57-58
Carnival Corporation (CCL)	0.00	48-49.5	46.5-47
Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY)	0.00	60-61.5	57-58
Arista Networks (ANET)	0.00	79-82	74-75
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	80-82	76-77

Current Market Outlook


From a top-down perspective, our bullish market stance has not changed—the small- and mid-cap indexes have now joined the large-cap S&P 500 in all-time high territory. Obviously, dips and shakeouts are possible, but to this point, we’ve seen a vacuum of selling pressure on the major indexes. Individual stocks have been a bit trickier, partly because of earnings season; more than a few stocks and sectors have been nailed as money hunts for the leaders of the advance. Overall, we remain bullish and advise you to stay heavily invested, but you should also follow the plan—book some partial profits on the way up and if a stock cracks through support or trips your stop, be sure to exit. Conversely, aim to let most of your winning positions run, as this is the kind of market that should produce many big winners over time.

This week’s list includes many recent earnings winners, including a couple of energy stocks. Our Top Pick is Parsley Energy (PE), which we think is probably the top stock in the sector. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
XPO Logistics (XPO)	0.00	34-36	31-32
Wright Medical (WMGI)	0.00	23-24	21-22
Wingstop (WING)	121.52	28.5-30	26.5-27
Trex Company (TREX)	117.56	57-59	51-52
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	35-37	31-32
Rice Energy (RICE)	0.00	23.5-25	22-22.5
Parsley Energy (PE)	0.00	30-32	27-28
Paycom Software (PAYC)	0.00	49-51	45-46.5
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)	0.00	19.5-20.5	18-18.5
Align Technology (ALGN)	316.20	88-91	81-82

In tonight’s Cabot Growth Investor, we dive into all our stocks and highlight our current batch of ideas (including an intriguing recent IPO with a great cookie-cutter story) and discuss the good and bad of mental versus in-the-market stops.

Recognizing the risk in today\'s hot market, today’s selection is not a hot stock; it’s a slower grower, a big stock with a heathy and growing dividend that’s technically in the leisure services business.

Current Market Outlook


Last Wednesday’s huge decline was a shot across the bow—most indexes threatened the lower end of their three-month trading ranges and even the strong Nasdaq showed some abnormal action. But few leading stocks broke down, and the action since then has been encouraging, with the indexes snapping back toward their highs. Overall, we remain more bullish than not, but given Wednesday’s action and the continued sideways action for most of the market, we’ll nudge our Market Monitor down a notch to level 7 and watch the next few days closely. Another big bout or two of distribution would darken the intermediate-term outlook, but the longer the market can hold up (or advance) from here, the greater the odds that last Wednesday was a news-driven shakeout.

In the meantime, we continue to find a variety of great charts and stories in a few different sectors. We’re sticking with the big-cap theme with our Top Pick this week—Global Payments (GPN) isn’t a barnburner but it has surged out of 13-month base on great earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	136-139	127.5-129
Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)	0.00	24-25	22-23
Deere & Company (DE)	0.00	116-120	110-112
Global Payments Inc. (GPN)	0.00	88-91	82.5-84.5
MiMedx Group (MDXG)	0.00	13.5-14.5	12-12.5
Parexel Corp. (PRXL)	0.00	77-80	72-74
RingCentral (RNG)	238.73	31.5-33.5	29-30
Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC)	127.95	27.5-29.5	24.5-26
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)	230.36	114-120	106-1090
Yum China (YUMC)	0.00	34.5-36.5	31.5-33

The overall market is just OK here, as most indexes are still stuck in 10-plus week trading ranges. Our market timing indicators are positive, but it\'s hard to say the bull market is overly powerful here. However, the action among leading growth stocks has been fantastic since mid-April, with most of the stocks we own or are watching racing up the charts.

Current Market Outlook


The market rally continued last week, with the major indexes pushing back toward (and in some cases, above) their multi-week highs. That was enough to turn the intermediate-term trend back up, causing us to flip our Market Monitor back into neutral territory, so you can begin to loosen the purse strings a bit, buying some new positions and looking to add more should you develop profits in the days ahead. That said, there are still a few flies in the ointment; the longer-term trend remains down and most of the big movers have been the worst performers of the past few months. That’s not bearish, but we would like to see real leadership emerge to new highs before we get more bullish.

This week’s list has some newer names, including a few off-the-bottom stocks from beaten-down sectors. For our Top Pick, we’ll take a stab at one of those—Matador Resources (MTDR) resisted the energy plunge well in recent months and is already back toward new high ground. If the energy run continues, it should do very well.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zillow Group (ZG)	0.00	32-34	29-30
Cimarex Energy (XEC)	0.00	118-122	107-108
Paycom Software (PAYC)	0.00	39-41	36-37
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)	242.42	25-26	22-23
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	108-115	97-98
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)	27.89	25-27	22-23
JinkoSolar Holding (JKS)	0.00	24-26	22-23
Hawaiian Holdings Inc. (HA)	0.00	26-28	23-24.5
Global Payments Inc. (GPN)	0.00	130-133	115-117
EPAM Systems (EPAM)	188.24	79-81	70-72

Current Market Outlook


We’ve seen some constructive action during the past few days—the major indexes have thus far successfully re-tested their August lows and we saw some positive divergences in the broad market (far fewer stocks hitting new lows this time around). Now we’re looking to see if the intermediate-term trend can turn up; by our measures, it could happen within a day or two if the market holds its recent gains. And if it does happen, we’ll move to a more neutral stance—giving some stocks looser leashes and advising more new buying (though we wouldn’t advise jumping in with both feet). We’ll see how it goes, but for now, be sure to have your shopping list ready.

This week’s list has a few steady Eddies but also some real growth stories, including a couple of new ones to us. For our Top Pick we’ll stay with the big-cap growth theme that’s offered many resilient stocks—Adobe Systems (ADBE) dominates its field and just completed a transition to the cloud, which will lead to huge recurring revenues going forward.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zoës Kitchen (ZOES)	0.00	38-41	35-36
VeriSign (VRSN)	190.71	71-73	67-68
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)	120.93	39-42	35.5-36
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	34-37	31.5-32
Jabil Inc. (JBL)	41.50	21-22	19-20
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	116-121	105-106
Edwards Lifesciences (EW)	228.06	145-150	138-140
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)	0.00	57-60	53.5-54
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)	315.23	83-85	78-79
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)	0.00	187-191	167-170