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Current Market Outlook


The market’s snapback in recent days has been impressive, with the Nasdaq toying with new-high ground, some other indexes popping back above their 50-day lines and many growth stocks acting much better. But not all is bright and sunny—there remain many divergences in the market, and the advance is extremely thin, with just one-third as many stocks hitting new highs today as during the Nasdaq’s initial run at this level in early July. Because the evidence has improved, we’re shifting our Market Monitor toward bullish territory, so you can put some sidelined cash to work, but we advise stepping back into the market slowly.

Regardless of the daily gyrations, we remain encouraged by the many growth stocks showing better action. Our Top Pick this week is LinkedIn (LNKD), a stock that still has resistance to chew through, but has turned the corner after getting cut in half.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
YY Inc. (YY)	0.00	86-88	77-79
Western Refining (WNR)	0.00	43-45	40-41
Tata Motors Limited (TTM)	0.00	43-44.5	40-41
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	250-260	235-240
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	82-85	77-78
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)	0.00	208-218	189-193
Jumei Holdings (JMEI)	0.00	36-38	33-34
Green Plains Energy (GPRE)	0.00	40-42	35.5-36.5
FleetCor Technologies (FLT)	0.00	140-146	132-134
Carter’s (CRI)	0.00	78-81	73-74

The market remains in good shape, with the major indexes hitting slightly higher highs and most stocks acting well. Granted, many growth stocks have been consolidating their strong mid-May to early-June advances, but we’re actually encouraged by that—despite strong run-ups back to (or somewhat above) their springtime highs, the sellers haven’t been able to make any headway. Sure, that could always change, but right now there’s no question that selling pressures are light and the buyers remain in control. Hence, it’s best to remain bullish and pick up shares of new leaders either on powerful breakouts or on dips toward support.

This week’s list has more solid growth ideas than we’ve seen in many weeks. Our favorite idea is GasLog (GLOG), which has gotten a boost from international events, but whose short- and long-term growth story is compelling. Last week, the stock blasted off on its heaviest volume ever.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	55.14	99-104	92-93
SunPower (SPWR)	12.26	38-39	34-35
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)	129.66	70-75	65-66
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	77-81	70-71
Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD)	146.30	90-93	78-80
GasLog (GLOG)	21.39	28-31	26-26.5
Electronic Arts (EA)	0.00	35-37	31-32
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	160-166	148-150
Arris Group (ARRS)	0.00	31.5-33.5	30-30.5
Apple (AAPL)	248.94	89-91	83-84

Last week’s market break was decisive, as it took down just about every stock and sector. It also came on the heels of a few weeks of funky action, with small- and mid-cap indexes diverging (small-cap indexes are down a few percent on the year!), few growth stocks sustaining their upmoves and lots of choppy action. Could the market come storming back and resume its uptrend? Sure, anything is possible. But the evidence has clearly turned sour, and the odds are that the next bounce or two will be sellable. Thus, it’s best to turn defensive by selling some stocks, holding plenty of cash and limiting new buying to small positions.

That said, you should keep your shopping list ready—this week’s list has many recent earnings winners that continue to hold up well in the face of a weak market. Our Top Pick is U.S. Steel (X). The stock broke out from a solid base last week and exploded higher on enormous volume—and we think it can do well in this challenging environment.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
United States Steel Corporation (X)	0.00	30.5-32.5	27.5-28.5
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)	0.00	98-100	93-94
Skechers (SKX)	0.00	50-52	45-46
Pacira Biosiences (PCRX)	54.85	93-95	84-85
Lam Research (LRCX)	268.47	67.5-69.5	64-65
Facebook, Inc. (FB)	0.00	70-73	66-67
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)	141.68	87-89	81-82
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	773.32	640-670	595-602
Celgene (CELG)	0.00	85-87	79-80
Baidu (BIDU)	0.00	200-210	192-194

From July 7 through July 17, we saw a harrowing decline among individual stocks and many major indexes. There was enough damage to suggest selling off a couple of your weaker holdings and possibly taking partial profits in a couple of winners. However, the market found some support last Friday, few stocks have broken down and the indexes have generally held support (though small-cap indexes look sick). Because of that, we remain overall bullish—you shouldn’t push the envelope here, but holding your best performers and keeping your eyes open for new leaders (possibly via earnings gaps) makes sense.

This week’s list surprised us (in a good way) by including a bunch of top-notch growth stories. Our Top Pick this week is Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS), a turnaround in the chip sector with huge projected growth. The stock just enjoyed a huge-volume, earnings-induced surge.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Weatherford International plc (WFT)	0.00	22-23	20.5-21
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)	230.36	92-96	87-89
Vipshop Holdings (VIPS)	14.25	190-200	175-180
Newfield Exploration (NFX)	0.00	42-44	39-40
Cheniere Energy (LNG)	63.82	70-72	65-66
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)	0.00	117-122	110-112
Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS)	0.00	16-17	14.5-15
Blackstone Group (BX)	49.12	34-36	31-32
Applied Materials (AMAT)	0.00	22-23	20-21.5
Akorn (AKRX)	0.00	31-33	29-30

Current Market Outlook


After weeks of banging on resistance, the major indexes lurched above some key levels last week, and many individual stocks did the same. To be fair, “breakouts” in indexes are notoriously unreliable, which is why we put more emphasis on the overall trend (choppy, but still positive) and the action of leading stocks (improving, though earnings season continues to have its say). Thus, while last week wasn’t a major buy signal, the weight of the evidence tells us to push our Market Monitor up a notch into bullish territory and continue to look for new leadership to emerge in the weeks ahead.

This week’s list has a wide variety of stocks, but for our Top Pick, we’re going with the mega-cap stock that just gapped up on earnings—Amazon’s (AMZN) surge last week pushed it out of a 15-month base as investors see huge potential for the firm’s cloud computing division.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Taser (TASR)	0.00	28-30	25-26
Men’s Wearhouse (MW)	0.00	55-57	50-51
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	82-86	76-78
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. (HDS)	0.00	32-34	30-30.5
Hasbro (HAS)	0.00	69-72	65-66
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH)	174.52	115-120	103-105
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	137.53	37-39	34.5-35
Axalta Coating (AXTA)	0.00	29.5-31	27-28.5
Amazon.com (AMZN)	2.00	430-450	410-415
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)	0.00	73.5-76.5	68-69

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes’ latest foray into new high ground has again been beaten back, as stocks slid today back into their multi-month trading ranges. It’s clear that the major trend of the market remains sideways, which is a good reason to remain somewhat cautious. But it’s also clear that many stocks are still working well—nobody is printing money, but we’re seeing plenty of stocks and sectors persist higher and, so far, take any selling waves in stride. You should still hold onto some cash and be selective when doing new buying, but if you see a good set-up, go ahead and take it.

This week’s Top Ten is a bit less heavy on growth stocks, though there are still a few hot stocks to read about. Our Top Pick is Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), which is anything but a growth stock, but looks like an interesting special situation. Earnings should explode in the next few quarters.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Summit Materials (SUM)	0.00	26.5-28	24-24.5
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	52-54	46-47
Jumei Holdings (JMEI)	0.00	20.5-22	18.5-19
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)	0.00	30-32	27.5-28
Cheetah Mobile (CMCM)	0.00	30-32	26-27
CF Industries (CF)	45.23	311-318	288-290
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)	0.00	51-54.5	46-48
A.O. SMITH (AOS)	0.00	69-70.5	63-64
Ambarella (AMBA)	52.79	82-85	74-75
Autoliv (ALV)	0.00	127-130	119-120

Current Market Outlook


The market found some buying support after this morning’s gap lower, as some investors believe the Fed might stay on hold for longer considering job growth has slowed. That was good to see, but, daily wiggles aside, the intermediate-term trend remains sideways, which means staying selective, holding some cash and honoring your stops is paramount. There are still plenty of stocks working and a few set-up nicely, and that’s where your focus should be.

This week’s Top Ten presents a bunch of current winners; all have held up well during the market’s recent selloff. Our Top Pick is Carmax (KMX), which popped out of a nice, flat base on earnings last week.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
58.com (WUBA)	0.00	49-51	45-46
United Therapeutics (UTHR)	0.00	170-175	160-162
Medivation (MDVN)	0.00	125-130	116-117
CarMax (KMX)	0.00	72-75	67-68
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP)	49.89	24.5-26	21-22
Humana Inc. (HUM)	0.00	175-179	158-162
Diamondback Energy (FANG)	0.00	75-78	67-69
E*Trade Financial (ETFC)	0.00	26.5-28	24-25
D. R. Horton (DHI)	66.55	27.5-28.5	25.5-26
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	31.5-33.5	29.5-30

Current Market Outlook


A week ago, it looked like the market had finally left behind its up-and-down pattern, but earnings season had other ideas—the major indexes took on some water, and many individual stocks were hit hard after so-so quarterly reports. That said, it’s not the end of the world; most indexes are holding their 50-day lines and there are a bunch of stocks either holding their own, or still within multi-month launching pads. We are respecting last week’s selling by knocking our Market Monitor back down a notch, and we do think it’s best to be very selective when doing new buying. The real key will be the next few days and whether the market can hold important support levels.

In the meantime, we’re impressed that we’re still finding solid growth ideas from a variety of fields. Our Top Pick is Equinix (EQIX), a steadily-growing data center operation whose REIT status offers tax advantages and the prospect of big dividends.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)	0.00	215-220	200-203
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	52.5-54.5	47.5-48.5
NetEase, Inc. (NTES)	0.00	124-128	114-116
JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)	0.00	20.5-21.5	18.5-19
Incyte Corporation (INCY)	76.98	97.5-102.5	93-94
Equinix, Inc. (EQIX)	547.73	252-257	233-236
CyberArk (CYBR)	111.74	66-68	57-58
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP)	34.94	62-65	57-58
Bluebird Bio (BLUE)	0.00	134-140	118-120
Ambarella (AMBA)	52.79	73-75	67-68

Current Market Outlook


The market remains very volatile, reacting to the news of the day (Greece, in particular, seems to be pushing and pulling the market on a daily basis), and most indexes are still trapped within trading ranges. However, stepping away from the headlines reveals increasing bullish evidence—growth stocks have been acting well for a few weeks and the Nasdaq has punched out to multi-year highs, yet investor sentiment remains apathetic. It’s not time to jump in with both feet (selectivity on the buy side and taking partial profits on the way up still makes sense), but we’re nudging our Market Monitor up another notch in reaction to the market’s action.

This weeks’ list has a good mix of names from a variety of industries. Our Top Pick is Ciena (CIEN), which has a history of big pops and drops, and started a fresh uptrend during the past few weeks.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Youku Tudou (YOKU)	0.00	26.5-28	24-25.5
Intrexon (XON)	0.00	48-50	43.5-44
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK)	0.00	46-47.5	41.5-42.5
Outerwall Inc, (OUTR)	0.00	80-82	73-74
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (LGF)	0.00	35.5-37	32.5-33
Insys Therapeutics (INSY)	0.00	37.5-39.5	33-34
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. (HDS)	0.00	34-35.5	32-32.5
Salesforce.com (CRM)	0.00	74-77	69-70
Cheetah Mobile (CMCM)	0.00	32-34	29-30
Ciena (CIEN)	44.25	24.5-26	22.5-23

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes are getting sloppier, with the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite now a couple of percent below their 50-day lines, and many individual stocks and sectors are getting hit. It’s not pretty, but this remains a split tape—the Nasdaq is holding up relatively well, for instance, and we’ve seen many growth stocks do OK in recent days, even as the market as a whole has dropped. Overall, we’re sticking with a neutral stance, which means holding some cash and being very selective on the buy side. It’s OK to pull the trigger if you see a good set-up or two, but honor your stops and don’t be afraid to book partial profits on the way up.

This week’s list is skewed toward the growth side of the equation, but has a mix of stocks that are in established uptrends and others that are just getting going. Our Top Pick is GoPro (GPRO), which has shown enough strength to tell us the March low was the bottom. Buy on dips and use a loose stop.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Zoës Kitchen (ZOES)	0.00	35.5-37.5	33.5-34
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)	154.94	109-112	100-101
Skechers (SKX)	0.00	102-105	91-93
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	73-76	66-68
Hologic (HOLX)	0.00	34.5-36	33-33.5
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO)	0.00	56-59	51-52
Global Payments Inc. (GPN)	0.00	104-105	98-99
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	70-72	65-66
Axalta Coating (AXTA)	0.00	34-35	31-32
AMAG Pharm. (AMAG)	0.00	68-70	62-63

We’ve moved into the second half of the year, but the overall picture is still the same for the stock market—there are some positives out there, but we’re still stuck in a downtrend—all indexes and growth funds are below key intermediate- and longer-term moving averages, and the fact that we’re seeing lots of stocks still hitting 52-week lows every day (even on big up days) tells us the broad market remains on the outs. All in all, it’s important to keep your eyes open and to stay flexible; the market can turn up at any time given that it’s looking months into the future, but as we’ve been writing for months, we have to see strength develop first, so defense remains the name of the game.



This week’s list is a hodgepodge of ideas, from big, steady-Eddies to smaller up-and-comers that want to get moving if the market can stabilize. Our Top Pick is an off-the-bottom name whose RP line has turned strong and whose growth is rapid and should accelerate.