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Current Market Outlook


The major indexes didn’t do much last week, as big investors seemed content to wait for the deluge of earnings report in the days ahead to hit the wires. We continue to think the majority of the evidence is positive (trends are up, most leading stocks are in good shape), which is why we’re still bullish; the odds continue to favor higher prices down the road. But, clearly, it’s not 1999 out there—relatively few stocks are hitting new highs and we’ve seen a lack of upside follow-through on the names that did reach virgin turf. Thus, be sure to pick your spots and to have a plan as earnings season ramps up—our guess is that the market’s reaction to the reports of leading stocks will determine whether a new leg up is underway or whether the market has more consolidating to do.

This week’s list is again heavy on growth stocks, though a couple of turnarounds make the list, too. Our Top Pick is one of the first earnings winners of the season—V.F. Corporation (VFC) is a steady-eddy type of company that just lifted from a six-month consolidation after topping estimates.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Green Dot (GDOT)	85.11	79-82	72-74
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	25.35	23.5-25	21-22
Madison Square Garden (MSG)	298.38	309-319	280-287
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)	120.93	125-135	109-115
SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE)	98.49	87-90	80-82
Square, Inc. (SQ)	91.04	67-70	59-61
Trex Company (TREX)	117.56	65-67	60-61
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	55.14	57.5-60	52-54
VF Corp. (VFC)	92.46	89-92	83-84.5
Zogenix (ZGNX)	46.50	55-58	48-50

Eternal vigilance is the price of investment success. For us, that means continually adapting our portfolio so that it is best positioned to benefit from the stocks that can do well in today’s market.

One of the minor predictable patterns that the stock market has developed over the years involves the days before and after holidays (like the Fourth of July). Basically, stocks do a little bit better on those days, but the pattern is neither big enough nor dependable enough to make money on. Still it’s worth keeping in mind as you watch the action of stocks this week.

Current Market Outlook


The selling pressure that appeared two weeks ago carried through to last week, with many leading stocks breaking down and others falling back into consolidations. That said, it’s not the end of the world—many major indexes are now testing their 50-day lines, and a bunch of stocks are in the same boat. There’s no question that the evidence has worsened lately, which is why our Market Monitor is back down to a reading of 6 (out of 10), but we’re most interested in what happens from here, which will probably go a long way toward determining the market’s next intermediate-term move. All told, you should still hold your strong, profitable stocks, but we also think it’s best to cool your heels a bit, keeping new buys small and holding some cash as we wait to see the market show its hand.

In the meantime, we’re using this brief period of market weakness to identify the stocks unaffected by the selling, as those will likely do the best when the market resumes its major advance. This week’s list has plenty to choose from, and our Top Pick is Wayfair (W), which is unusually strong—keep positions small and try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Five Below (FIVE)	134.58	93-97	83-85
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)	267.14	202-211	185-188
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)	423.92	385-400	345-355
Oasis Petroleum (OAS)	12.57	12.1-12.9	11-11.3
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)	52.50	54-57	49-51
Teladoc, Inc. (TDOC)	127.95	56-60	49-51
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)	87.63	74-78	66-68
Wayfair (W)	167.03	112-117	100-104
WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (WCG)	271.83	238-245	220-225
WPX Energy (WPX)	0.00	17.4-18.5	16-16.7

Current Market Outlook


It came on low volume and Independence Day made it just four days, but last week’s trading action was encouraging, with the major indexes generally holding key support early in the week and then bouncing nicely into the weekend. By our measures, the intermediate-term trend is still tilted up, and while there are fewer stocks hitting new highs than there were a few weeks back, there remain many stocks in good shape. With the improved evidence, we’re nudging our Market Monitor up a notch to 7; like we just wrote, last week was encouraging. But we also want to see how the indexes and leading stocks handle themselves now that big investors are back at their desks and earnings season gets underway.

This week’s list is again heavy on growth-oriented stocks, including a couple of newer names we haven’t seen before. Our Top Pick is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which has surged toward the top of an 11-month consolidation. We’re OK starting small and adding more if shares advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
AeroVironment (AVAV)	80.48	68-71	61-63
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)	24.03	28-30	25-26
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	96-100	87-89
iRhythm Technologies (IRTC)	51.15	84-87	76-78
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)	304.69	122-128	112-115
Novocure (NVCR)	0.00	31.5-33	28.5-29.5
Shake Shack (SHAK)	92.08	62-65	55-57
Twitter (TWTR)	40.37	42-45	37.5-39.5
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)	230.36	169-175	158-161
Yext Inc. (YEXT)	21.32	18.5-19.5	17-17.5

While the market mourns the misfortunes of poor Mark Zuckerberg, we actually have a little ray of light in emerging markets, as the Cabot Emerging Markets Timer is showing a very new green light. New buy signals are pretty delicate, but we’re taking this one seriously, doing a little new buying and shifting another stock from a Hold to a Buy rating. As the artillery of the trade war rumbles, it’s nice to have something to celebrate. Read on for details.

When the market picture gets confusing, as it often does, it pays to have some reliable indicators to depend on—rather than the guy on the evening news. So today, after a couple of weeks of market correction that have done serious damage to some leading stocks and led many pundits to ask whether we’ve seen the market top, we turn to our indicators and ask whether the bull market is truly over, and here’s what they say...

Current Market Outlook


The strength that began around July 4 continued last week as big investors returned to their desks, pushing most major indexes to marginal new recovery highs. There’s still plenty of news-driven action (volume was light even through last week), and earnings season, which is beginning to get underway in earnest, is sure to have an impact. But the intermediate-term trend (which was iffy in late June) has rejoined the longer-term trend on the upside, and many leading stocks have either snapped back to new highs or are building sound launching pads. We’re always on the lookout for renewed selling pressure, but the evidence has improved, so we’re moving our Market Monitor back to a level 8.

This week’s list is again heavy on growth stocks, though there are a couple of special situations presented as well. Our Top Pick is ZTO Express (ZTO), a young, volatile Chinese stocks with huge growth and a very strong chart. Start small, ideally on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Energen (EGN)	77.04	72-75	65-67
Etsy (ETSY)	112.97	40.5-43	35.5-37
GDS Holdings Limited (GDS)	80.15	41.5-43.5	37-38
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)	121.03	114-117	106-108
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)	234.07	270-290	230-240
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)	236.92	212-217	198-201
Roku, Inc. (ROKU)	150.46	45.5-47.5	40.5-42
Sonic Corp. (SONC)	35.22	34-36	31.5-32.5
Workday (WDAY)	194.88	130-134	121-124
ZTO Express (ZTO)	28.84	21-22	18.5-19

With this month’s new addition, I decided to go in a different direction then we have with previous recommendations. Instead of featuring another rapid-growth medical device or software stock, I’ve selected a consumer defensive stock in a very specialized industry and with a more modest growth profile. It’s the perfect summertime stock for a period in which many growth stocks are acting a little schizophrenic—especially for those investors who like getting out of the house for a bite to eat and a good beer or glass of wine.

The market’s action since its late-June shakeout has been solid, with the major indexes and many leading stocks pushing back toward new high ground. Granted, not everything looks perfect, but the majority of evidence remains positive, including our trend-following indicators, so we remain mostly bullish.

This stock and its peers are experiencing a game-changing situation within its industry. The stock therefore deserves a second look by growth investors.

Traders will be happy to see this stock joining the Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio for the third time in less than a year. Let’s see if we can accomplish a trifecta!

Wide swaths of the market are still in no man’s land, including a handful of major indexes. But the growth areas of the market are looking great, with individual stocks, the Nasdaq and small-cap indexes hitting new highs.

Bottom line, while the picture isn’t perfect, there’s no question the evidence has improved enough to continue extending our line. In the Model Portfolio, we’re adding one familiar name tonight, bringing our cash position down to 20%, and are looking at more potential buys in the days ahead.

In addition to reviewing all our stocks, in tonight’s issue we also talk a bit about surviving shakeouts, something that has been (and will likely continue to) be key as the bull market progresses.

After a brief shakeout last Monday, supposedly on fears that Italy would leave the EU, the market reversed course and has been pushing higher and higher since, supposedly cheering on the continued strong performance of the U.S. economy.

I’m enjoying the ride, and I assume you are, too. But I must remind you that good news is prevalent at market tops, while bad news is what you wallow in at market bottoms. So keep your eyes on the exits—while continuing to hold the best stocks as long as the market supports them.

Calling market tops is impossible, but leaning against the wind is something you learn after a while, if you pay attention. So today, with many of our stocks once again hitting or near new highs, I’m leaning into the wind by selling one and downgrading another to hold.

As for new buying, today’s recommendation comes straight from Cabot Top Ten Trader. It’s an underappreciated retail stock that surged higher on a great earnings report two weeks ago and has since pulled back to what I think is a great entry point.