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Current Market Outlook


Usually when the market is stretched and sentiment is complacent, the market latches onto a reason to retreat, and last week provided it, with the Middle East conflict offering an excuse for sellers to get active and buyers to pull in. The good news is, thus far, the retreat has been reasonable—the major indexes are still even above their 25-day lines, and few stocks have cracked key support or flashed any abnormal action. That said, we’re leaning toward the view that, Iran or not, the short-term is likely to remain tricky, with rotation, potholes and news-driven moves likely to be the norm for a while. Thus, we remain bullish, but continue to advise picking your spots—many stocks have etched nice month-long rest periods, though some others probably need time to consolidate.

This week’s list has a bunch of names that haven’t appeared in Top Ten for a long time (if ever). Our Top Pick is Alibaba (BABA), which has finally kicked back into gear after a long time in the wilderness. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alibaba (BABA)	254.81	208-216	192-196
Bilibili (BILI)	28.71	20.5-22	18.5-19.5
Coupa Software (COUP)	262.20	157.5-162.5	143-146
Eldorado Resorts (ERI)	0.00	56-58	51-52
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)	0.00	76.5-80	66.5-68.5
Lumentum (LITE)	87.00	76-79	69.5-71
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)	124.37	95-97.5	86-87.5
Tenet Healthcare (THC)	0.00	35.5-37	32.5-33.5
WPX Energy (WPX)	0.00	13.2-13.7	11.7-12.0
Scorpio Tankers (STNG)	0.00	37.5-39	33.5-34.5

Current Market Outlook


The rapid spread of China’s coronavirus provided the impetus for a selloff that began last Friday and exploded onto the scene today. Where does that leave us? First, the intermediate-term trend of the indexes is still positive but close to the fence; the big-cap indexes look OK, but the broader measures (small and mid caps) are right around their key 50-day lines. Beyond the charts, it’s likely that more time is needed for investors to trim/hedge after four months of straight-up action. As for leading stocks, we’re taking it on a case-by-case basis—some are looking ragged and ripe for a deeper correction, but most are pulling back normally. If you’re heavily invested, our advice is to follow the usual plan: Hold most of your shares in your strong, profitable stocks, while selling or keeping tight leashes on losers and laggards. We’re moving our Market Monitor down to a level 6.

On the buy side, newer names that are holding up well should be near the top of your shopping list. This week features plenty of those, with our Top Pick being Kansas City Southern (KSU), a reliable grower that just reacted well to earnings.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO)	52.43	50.5-52.5	45.5-47
Bristol-Myers (BMY)	66.24	62-64	59-60.5
Datadog (DDOG)	81.52	39.5-41.5	36.5-38
Kansas City Southern (KSU)	176.54	162-165	150-152
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	42.5-44.5	38-39
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	16.68	18-19	16-16.5
STMicroelectronics (STM)	30.09	27.5-28.5	25-25.5
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)	78.41	57-58.5	53-54
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	137.5-141	127.5-129
Zillow (Z)	76.64	46-48	42.5-44

This week’s leading issue is the China virus, which is impacting markets.
We will need to keep an eye on this breaking issue. Still, Virgin Galactic jumped another 14% yesterday and is up over 80% in the last month.

Our emerging market timer is clearly positive and today’s recommendation is an emerging country that is the overlooked big winner from the two recent trade deals. It is in a nice uptrend and has fuel to burn going forward, backed by several positive trends.

The market has been ripping higher with broader participation from sectors that weren’t doing much a couple months ago. That’s the good news. And it’s showing up in the charts with the Small Cap Index at multi-month highs (but well below all-time highs). IPOs are starting to find their legs too. The not-so-good news is that the market is looking a little stretched, which could mean a pause or pullback is coming sooner rather than later. But, the market has a way of doing the unpredictable and with so many investors thinking it’s time for break we could see just the opposite. This month we try to play both sides of the ball by spreading things around in different sectors and across market caps. There’s some IPOs, some high growth software and MedTech ideas, and another growth + value name. They all have their own qualities and stand out to me for different reasons right now.

The long-awaited pullback appears to have arrived, with fears and uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus and its impact on economic growth bringing out the sellers; our Cabot Tides, in fact, are now on the fence. In the near-term, the odds favor some more pain being dished out, not necessarily because of the virus, but as the market consolidates its strong four-month advance. Big picture, though, this is still a bull market, so while we’ve trimmed a bit, we’re aiming to hold our strong, profitable stocks, thinking higher highs are likely once this pullback does its work.

In the Model Portfolio, we took partial profits on DocuSign and ProShares S&P 500 Fund earlier this week, which lifted our cash position to around 20%. And from here, we’ll just take it as it comes, as we explain in tonight’s issue.

Current Market Outlook


The market rebounded nicely today, and we won’t pooh-pooh that, as a show of support is always a positive. That said, we need to see more to conclude the sellers have left the building—the intermediate-term trend, for instance, remains on the fence, and while there are no sure things, it’s likely the market will need more than six days to consolidate a four-month advance. Bigger picture, nothing has changed our view that this is a bull market, though, so we’re certainly not advising you to become overly defensive, but we’d stick with the plan of holding some cash, keeping your weakest stock or two on a tight leash and being careful on the buy side, especially when it comes to buying on strength (most moves to new highs are being met with selling). Our Market Monitor will remain at 6 for now, though we’re obviously watching things closely.

Believe it or not, many stocks did well last week, and today’s list features some of them. Our Top Pick is Yeti (YETI), which is set up nicely ahead of earnings in two weeks; you could nibble here, or just wait until you see a powerful breakout.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Atlassian (TEAM)	182.16	143-147	133-135
Dynatrace (DT)	36.59	28-30	25-26
Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)	81.02	67.5-69.5	63-64
Franco-Nevada (FNV)	125.51	108-111	100-101.5
Momenta Pharma (MNTA)	31.63	27.5-30	23.5-25
Penn National Gaming (PENN)	45.38	28-30	25-26
PulteGroup (PHM)	45.93	43.5-45	40-41
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	328-336	303-306
Tandem Diabetes (TNDM)	74.77	73-76	65-67
Yeti Holdings (YETI)	42.80	35.5-37.5	32.5-33.5

The overall market remains in an uptrend, as do most leading stocks, and that’s why we remain mostly bullish. But while we’re positive, we’re not pounding the table, partly because of some secondary measures (most broader indexes haven’t hit new highs in a month) but mostly because individual stocks aren’t offering up many great entry points. Tonight, then, we’re again standing pat, happy to ride our winners but monitoring earnings season closely, both for stocks we own and for those we want to buy.

In tonight’s issue, we go over a few new ideas, including a couple of IPOs from last year that were nailed but are now coming back from the dead; they could be morphing into leaders. And as usual we go over all of our current holdings and our updated watch list.

In the field of speech recognition software, this stock is a pioneer with plenty of room to grow. The company is known for its Dragon Naturally Speaking software package, which makes dictation faster and nearly as accurate as typing. It also allows users to control computer programs and send emails by voice command.

While the coronavirus concerns are still high, stocks have recovered their footing, as China has taken steps to stimulate its economy and markets.

The Cabot Global Stocks Explorer portfolio is holding up well, though Luckin Coffee (LK) sold off hard and then sharply rebounded this week. Our emerging markets timer (EEM) is marginally positive, and in an uptrend in the last month.



Today’s recommendation is a leader in fintech with a great growth story, strong numbers and an attractive entry point.

STMicroelectronics is one of the world’s largest semiconductor companies, delivering solutions that are key to the smartphone and automotive markets. Major customers include Apple and Tesla, though the firm (which is based in Switzerland) sports more than 100,000 customers around the globe.

Global investment bank Morgan Stanley thrilled investors last week by delivering record profit and revenue numbers, beating Wall Street’s fourth quarter 2019 revenue and earnings estimates, and meeting or exceeding all of CEO Jim Gorman’s performance targets.