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Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2021 issue.

This month we look at post-bankruptcy energy stocks. Companies that have emerged from bankruptcy are generally shunned by investors, as are energy stocks in general in the current market. Combined, these two traits offer some attractive investment opportunities. We discuss four of them.



We also look at tobacco stocks. Shares of these companies have fallen sharply in recent years due to an acceleration in the decline rate of cigarette volumes. However, that trend appears to be moderating, leaving the shares undervalued yet paying high dividend yields. Our feature recommendation, Altria Group (MO), is a stand-out value among the group.



We also include comments on recent price target and rating changes, including our recent Sell recommendations on Trinity Industries (TRN) and ViacomCBS (VIAC).



Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.



I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

In February’s Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we dig into the red hot IPO market.

We take a closer look at five recent IPOs that have been on my shopping list. It is not an Issue for the faint of heart. Several of these stocks have made significant moves in their short history as public companies.



There are strategies to mitigate the risks, however. And as we scan the universe of attractive stories today it is not hard to envision several of these stocks trading significantly higher a year from now.



Sit back and enjoy.

Put simply, the market’s snapback from the selloff two weeks ago has been extremely impressive, and while it doesn’t erase all of the yellow flags, it’s certainly a positive sign. Because we didn’t drastically change our stance during the weakness (a little trimming), we’re not doing anything drastic during the rebound — at least not yet. We filled out our position in CrowdStrike last week and are placing Pinterest and Twilio back on Buy.

If all goes well, we could have a new addition or two soon, with our top choices written about in tonight’s issue. But tonight, we’ll stand pat and see how the market acts as earnings season continues.

The last two weeks have seen a massive rally into cyclical stocks, and a purge of growth stocks. Massive! Whether this trend will continue is anyone’s guess.

The good news for the Cabot Profit Booster portfolio is we have a relatively diverse portfolio. And as I eyeball our portfolio, I would say we have five cyclical stocks (AZEK, JCI, SONO, GS, APHA) and “only” two growth stocks (DT, AMKR), and the premiums we collected via our covered call sales have partially buffered us from big losses on those stocks that have been hit hard.

Current Market Outlook


There were some intra-week ups and downs, but overall, not much changed with the evidence last week—the major indexes mostly closed down 0.5% to 1.5%, which keeps the broad market in an uptrend but also means growth stocks and the Nasdaq are still in corrections and consolidations. With many names now five to seven weeks into new launching pads, we’re looking for definitive signs that the buyers are coming back for growth stocks—and indeed, we have seen some encouraging action during the past two sessions—but it’s too soon to conclude the environment is changing. Thus, we’re sticking with the same stance: Some small buys of strong stocks on pullbacks is fine, but we’d stay relatively close to shore until the bulls prove that the buying pressures are spreading and more solid entry points emerge.

This week’s list has something for everyone, whether you’re looking for different sectors or setups. Our Top Pick is LGI Homes (LGIH), which has reemerged on the upside and could be leading a new group move in the homebuilders.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS)	28	25.5-27.5	21-22
Alcoa (AA)	30	29-31	25.5-26.5
Cimarex Energy (XEC)	60	56-58.5	51-52.5
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IAC)	248	237-250	214-220
Jack in the Box (JACK)	115	111-115	100-102
LGI Homes (LGIH)	142	138-143	123-126
Spirit AeroSystems (SPR)	48	46-49	41.5-43
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	47	44.5-47	40.5-41.5
TripAdvisor (TRIP)	54	51-54	45-47
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)	180	167-173	148-152

Current Market Outlook


Up is good, so last week’s rebound in growth and continued push higher in the broad market was encouraging. That said, nothing much has changed with the overall evidence—many areas of the market look just fine, with a few indexes actually hitting all-time highs, but growth stocks are still (mostly) in a corrective mode, with a bunch of names having rallied only into resistance. Really, we think the action of the next week or two will tell the tale—resilience and upside from here would suggest the huge pullback earlier this month was more of a shakeout, but renewed selling pressure would hint toward another leg down. Right now, we’re playing things halfway—we’re OK with some buying, especially in stronger names that pull back some, but we’re not pushing the envelope and need to see more from growth before concluding the storm has passed. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 5 today.

This week’s list is very much a mixed bag, with cyclicals, retail, growth and turnarounds all making the cut. Our Top Pick is Thor Industries (THO), which looks like the leader of a fresh move for that group. You could nibble here or (preferably) on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Big Lots (BIG)	71	66-69	59-61
Devon Energy (DVN)	25	22-23.5	19-20
Dropbox (DBX)	28	26.5-28	24-25
Dycom Industries (DY)	100	95-98	85-87
Groupon Inc. (GRPN)	60	57-60	48-50
Inari Medical (NARI)	114	110.5-115.5	98-101
Macy’s, Inc. (M)	21	18-19.5	15.5-16.5
Owens & Minor (OMI)	37	33.5-35.5	30-31
Summit Materials (SUM)	30	28-30	25-26
Thor Industries (THO)	147	140-147	125-128

Current Market Outlook


After a very strong rally from the late-January lows, the major indexes are again in the midst of a pullback—during the past week and a half we’ve seen a few days of churning and distribution as worries over inflation (and a less-loose Federal Reserve) cause some profit taking, and today saw a big rotation out of growth stocks. Could this be the start of a “real” correction? It could be, as the intermediate-term advance is long in the tooth and sentiment remains giddy. That said, we never anticipate, and so far, we really haven’t seen much abnormal action yet—while a few stocks have fallen apart after earnings, most leaders are intact and even the weakest major index (Nasdaq) is near its 25-day line, which is acceptable. Given some of the yellow flags out there, our antennae are up, but with most of the evidence still positive, we’re keeping our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has many recent earnings winners, including a few that are busting loose from good-sized bases (regular or post-IPO). Our Top Pick is Wix.com (WIX), which has a great story, accelerating growth and just staged a very powerful breakout.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
The AZEK Company (AZEK)	47	45-47.5	40.5-41.5
Deere & Company (DE)	338	318-328	288-294
DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)	60	59.5-62.5	52-53.5
Magna International Inc. (MGA)	87	81-85	73-75
Mohawk Industries (MHK)	174	162-168	146-149
MongoDB (MDB)	392	395-407	355-365
SelectQuote (SLQT)	30	27-29	24-25
Sonos (SONO)	38	34.5-36.5	29.5-30.5
Teck Resources Limited (TECK)	23	21-22	18.7-19.5
Wix.com (WIX)	335	333-346	295-305

Current Market Outlook


First off, a heads up that our offices will be closed on Friday for Good Friday. So we’ll probably be sending you Movers & Shakers a day early this week.

As for the market, the split environment continues, with many major indexes closing last week near new highs, while the Nasdaq is still languishing beneath its 50-day line. Overall, the song remains mostly the same—growth stocks are mired in a correction (including some big winners from last year that can’t get out of their own way), and while many cyclical-related stocks are holding up well, few are really making much upward progress. There are some pullback opportunities here and there, and to be fair, we are seeing more potential setups in growth land. But at the moment, the market action resembles a kid scribbling on a piece of paper, with jerky movements that don’t persist. Thus, we continue to think you should mostly play it safe, keeping new positions small and holding a generous amount of cash until we see the next sustained uptrend get underway.

This week’s list is mostly turnaround-based, with some strong travel and retail stocks that could be decent entries on dips. Our Top Pick is Urban Outfitters (URBN), which staged a longer-term breakout a month ago, with this first pullback likely buyable.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Alaska Air Group (ALK)	68	64.5-67.5	57.5-59.5
Alliance Data Systems (ADS)	113	105-110	93-95.5
Callon Petroleum (CPE)	37	33-35	26-28
Expedia Group (EXPE)	177	167-173	149-153
Nexstar Media Group (NXST)	139	135-140	123-126
RH Inc. (RH)	566	545-560	490-500
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. (SEAS)	49	45-47	40-41
Urban Outfitters (URBN)	37	35-37	31.5-32.5
Wayfair (W)	335	325-340	294-302
ZoomInfo (ZI)	49	48-50.5	44-45

This week is the expiration of March options, and the good news is we appear to be headed to full profits on four of our March positions (JCI, SONO, GS, APHA) and are in good shape with our one position that is unlikely to be called away Friday (DT). Expect to hear from me Thursday afternoon or early Friday morning on these expiring covered calls.

Current Market Outlook


Last week’s issue was titled “Next Few Days Should be Key,” and we think they were—in a bullish way. The market’s strong snapback to new highs (in the indexes and many leaders) made the prior dip look like a shakeout, which generally bodes well. That said, the action didn’t erase all the yellow flags out there, either, as sentiment is bubbly, many stocks are extended in time and price and, most important, tons of names are set to report earnings in the days ahead, which will be key for the intermediate term. Don’t get us wrong, we’re encouraged, but we still think it’s best to pick your spots on the buy side and trail your stops (and book some partial profits here and there) as opportunities arise. We’ll move our Market Monitor back up a notch and see how things go from here.

This week’s list is brimming with strong names, including more than a few that reacted well to earnings last week. For our Top Pick, we’ll go with Dynatrace (DT), which has just gotten going from a multi-month structure and looks ready for a sustained advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Align Technology (ALGN)	602	585-605	525-540
Bill.com Holdings (BILL)	179	170-177	150-154
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS)	42	40-42.5	35.5-37
Dynatrace (DT)	56	53-56	47.5-49
PayPal (PYPL)	282	267-277	240-246
Pinduoduo (PDD)	188	178-186	160-164
SM Energy (SM)	12	10-11	8-8.8
Snap Inc. (SNAP)	64	60.5-63.5	53-54.5
Tapestry, Inc. (TPR)	39	35-37	31.5-33
Zendesk (ZEN)	156	150-155	138-141

The timing is right for alternative energy.

Alternative energy (also referred to as clean or alternative energy) is by far the fastest growing energy source. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global renewable power supply will grow 50% in just the next 5 years.



While clean energy has been a story and knocking at the door for a while now, a certain critical mass in growth and development seems to be taking place recently. The market usually gets it. And it’s telling us something.



The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), which tracks 30 stocks in the Global Clean Energy Index, has taken off lately after going nowhere for more than a decade. ICLN soared 100% over the past year and 178% for the past two years, compared to S&P 500 returns of 22% and 44% respectively over the same period.



The market clearly sees big changes looming in the energy sector. It also helps that the Biden Administration will likely reward clean energy companies with more tax breaks and subsidies and other goodies. But more importantly, the focus will draw still more investor attention to the booming growth in alternative energy. And investor intrigue will only accelerate.



This month’s highlighted stock NextEra Energy (NEE) should clearly benefit going forward. It may not be the sexiest clean energy. But it provides a great way for more conservative, income oriented investors to play the trend.

Current Market Outlook


With the major indices in record territory and the leading growth stocks showing strength, it’s hard to be anything less than bullish right now. Even at these elevated levels, the market has provided us with a few attractive entry points recently. But with earnings season well underway and sentiment still elevated, the potential for near-term volatility has increased. Thus, it’s imperative not to throw caution to the wind in this news-sensitive environment. Given the weight of evidence, being selective when buying is the preferred tactic. The dominant intermediate-term trend is clearly up, though, so you don’t want to be too defensive. We’ll keep our Market Monitor at 7 and see how things go from here.

This week’s list has a nice mix of stocks across several industries benefiting from different trends. Our Top Pick this week is CarParts.com (PRTS), which recently had a high-volume breakout from a huge basing pattern.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Agilent Technologies (A)	128	127-129	121.5-123
Analog Devices (ADI)	160	156-161	149-151
CarParts.com (PRTS)	21	19.5-22	17-18
Chegg (CHGG)	112	105-111.5	97-100
eXp World Holdings (EXPI)	80	74-79	62-65
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)	33	31-33	27.5-28
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)	53	52-54	49-50
Pinterest (PINS)	89	85.5-88	76-78
Square, Inc. (SQ)	276	263-273	240-250
Twitter (TWTR)	74	68-72	63-66

November through most of January was relatively smooth, but we’ve seen more cracks over the past month—especially this week, as growth stocks have come under severe pressure. To be fair, our trend following indicators are still positive, so we’re not selling wholesale, but we’re not letting stocks get away from us on the downside, either.

Earlier this week, we cut bait on CrowdStrike, and tonight, we’re letting to of NovoCure, taking small profits in each. Our cash position will now be around 40%, and as always, we’ll remain flexible going forward, prepared to either put money to work (if this is another short-term shakeout) or raise more cash (if a “real” correction unfolds.)