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Current Market Outlook


The major indexes have scored a couple of solid gains, though we’re seeing plenty of crosscurrents underneath the surface; this could be the start of a rotation out of growth, but it may just be normal action that’s often seen around quarter-end (as hedge funds, most of which get paid quarterly, book profits and reposition themselves). Just looking at the evidence, the push higher has kept the intermediate-term trend pointed up, and while some leaders have hit potholes, most remain in uptrends and have avoided abnormal action. Overall, then, we remain mostly bullish, though we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 7 for a bit longer to see if this recent push (a) continues and (b) is led by leading, Top Ten-style stocks.

This week’s list has many familiar names from earlier this year—a good sign, in our view, that leading stocks are continuing their uptrends. Our Top Pick is Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), a unique drug firm with a powerful chart. Try to buy on dips.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Armstrong World (AWI)	88.01	77-79	70.5-72
Array Biopharma (ARRY)	46.35	23-24.5	20.5-21.5
Carvana (CVNA)	82.90	56-59	48-50
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)	73.34	77-80	69-71.5
Paylocity (PCTY)	97.34	87-90	79-81
ServiceNow (NOW)	341.86	240-248	220-223
Survey Monkey (SVMK)	19.97	17-18	15.3-16
TAL Education (TAL)	50.49	34-36.5	31.5-32.5
TransDigm (TDG)	599.41	443-458	415-425
Universal Display (OLED)	187.54	150-155	134-137

The market remains in an uptrend, and many of our leading stocks have been hitting new highs, even though the major indexes haven’t—yet. Thus I continue to recommend that you be heavily invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks—growth, value, dividend-paying and more. Someday, it will become appropriate to be more cautious, but that time is not now.
Today’s stock is a young technology stock with great growth prospects as it supplies its customers with the tools needed to secure digital operations of all types and sizes. It’s an aggressive, high-risk investment, but the trend is strongly up.
As for the current portfolio, six of our stocks have hit new highs in recent days, so we’re making great progress. The only changes this week are two downgrades from Buy to Hold. Details inside.

The market remains in an uptrend, though the correction that started last week may do a little more damage. If so, try to take advantage of it, remembering that buying low is the goal.
Today’s stock is a name you know—a name all Americans know—and I think it’s a good buy here after correcting 39% last fall. Crista Huff is the Cabot analyst who recommended it most recently, in part on fundamental grounds, and my reading of the chart confirms her conclusion.
As for the current portfolio, we continue to make great progress, but there’s always room for improvement. The only changes this week are two upgrades from Hold to Buy. Details inside.

Various portfolio companies are in the midst of changes and volatility related to a spin-off, a name change, the Boeing Max 737 problem and the ongoing effects of Midwest flooding. In addition, U.S. stock markets decided that they’re ready to rise again, so I itemized several opportunities in this issue ranging from blue chip stocks to a microcap stock.

I expect 2019 to continue being a year that offers great opportunities for stock traders. While my investment style of identifying undervalued growth stocks is not conducive to day trading, investors will likely find lots of opportunities to achieve capital gains of 10% or more over several-month periods.

In this issue I highlight a company that has been investing in infrastructure assets all over the world. The stock has doubled the return of the S&P 500. And business will only get better.

The market has softened over the past week, and we’ve seen some high-volume selling in former leading stocks, so I’m now pulling back a bit on risk, which is one reason today’s recommendation is a low-risk utility stock.
Technically part of the Safe Income portfolio of Cabot Dividend Investor, this stock pays a healthy 2.6% yield and it has decent upside potential as well.
As for the current portfolio, we still have some stocks hitting new highs, but we’ve also got some showing renewed weakness, so today I have two sell recommendations. Details in the issue.

We’ve seen a bit of turbulence in international emerging markets with speculation about trade talks and the perceived slower growth in China and Europe.

Apparently, institutional investors are underweighting Europe so we go against the grain for our new recommendation. This is a great brand that offers a nice combination of high quality, value price of entry, strong growth in emerging markets and a 7.8% dividend yield.

Two weeks ago, we pointed out some developing divergences in the broad market, and in the short-term, those have caught up to the big-cap indexes and growth stocks, which have generally fallen off in recent days, including a couple of breakdowns. In the near-term, the outlook is still murky, so we advise stepping carefully, though big picture, we remain bullish and, hence, heavily invested.
In the Model Portfolio, we’ve placed some stocks on hold and, this week, sold one stock as it broke down on huge volume. We’re holding 18% cash now, though should the market and growth stocks firm up, we’ll be looking to put that to work in stronger leaders.
In tonight’s issue, we dive in deeper into all our thoughts on the market and our stocks, as well as look at prior environments after blastoff signals to see what’s normal and what’s not (hint: so far, we’re still in good shape).

After a well-deserved pullback during the past two weeks, the strong action this week from most major indexes and leading stocks is a good sign. Short-term, further wobbles are certainly possible after the strong nine-week advance off the market’s major bottom, but big picture, we remain very bullish and heavily invested.
In tonight’s issue, we write about a couple of simple tips for handling some off-the-bottom names in last year’s high-fliers, as well as reviewing our nine stocks and a couple others that look tempting.

After a fairly quiet March, emerging markets came to life this week after the revelation of unexpectedly strong manufacturing growth in China, progress on trade talks and lower interest rates—which always help emerging markets.

This week we have a new recommendation that helps power emerging market consumer spending, a key driver as these markets transition from exports to consumer spending to fuel their growth.

Emerging markets (EEM) stay in a confirmed uptrend with the support of generally upbeat earnings. Investors have piled about $86 billion into emerging-market stocks and bonds this year, more than in the last nine months of 2018 combined.

We have some earnings updates and a new recommendation that actually delivers the strong e-commerce growth—a leading consumer theme of emerging markets.

CBD is hot, and acquisitions in the cannabis industry seem to occur daily, but the biggest marijuana stocks are cooling, at least for a while.

Long-term, however, I remain very bullish on both the companies and the stocks in the industry and am truly enjoying staying on top of the developments.

The gains so far this year, in both the sector and the portfolio, remain spectacular, but they won’t continue; I guarantee that corrections and volatility will come. And I also guarantee I’ll give you my best ideas on how to deal with them.

Current Market Outlook


The market’s snapback last week was very encouraging, with the major indexes and most leading stocks leaping back toward (or in some cases, out to) new highs. As we wrote last week, there are a couple of short-term issues to keep an eye on—namely, we saw some non-confirmations, as small- and mid-cap indexes didn’t bounce that much and far fewer stocks hit new highs even as the S&P and Nasdaq did. At this point, that action is more descriptive than predictive; it does raise the odds that the market could throw us another curveball over the next week or two, but it’s not something we’d necessarily trade off of. Big picture, we remain mostly bullish, though for new buying, we still favor entering on weakness.

This week’s list is just about all tech, med tech and biotech, and we’re happy to see some improved setups after the past two to three weeks of action. Our Top Pick is Zendesk (ZEN), which looks like it wants to continue its breakout from a few weeks back.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Amarin (AMRN)	14.06	18-20	16.5-17.5
Cree, Inc. (CREE)	67.96	54.5-57	49.5-51
Exact Sciences (EXAS)	116.91	88-92	80-82.5
iQIYI (IQ)	0.00	25.5-27.5	22.5-23.5
Paycom Software (PAYC)	0.00	176-183	159-163
Q2 Holdings (QTWO)	80.81	66-69	60.5-62
Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)	170.11	137-142	125-128
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)	331.95	326-343	290-300
Xilinx (XLNX)	134.50	119-125	108-112
Zendesk (ZEN)	82.19	79-83	72-73.5

Current Market Outlook


The lagging action of the broad market finally caught up with the major indexes last Friday, with everything taking a big hit and, more important, small- and mid-cap indexes falling below their 50-day lines. Right now, most of the evidence remains positive, so we remain mostly bullish. But it’s fair to say our antennae are up and the next few days will be important—the intermediate-term trend is basically on the fence (another bad day could turn it down) and many leading stocks have been running for many weeks and are extended to the upside. Bottom line, we’re sticking with our current stance, but be sure to honor your stops and loss limits, take partial profits where available and, on the buy side, be discerning and aim to buy on weakness.
The good news is we’re seeing a decent amount of strong stocks that hit new highs recently and are pulling back normally. This week’s list is full of them, and our Top Pick is iRobot (IRBT), a stock with a solid growth story and a good-looking setup on the chart.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Forescout (FSCT)	41.92	41.5-43	37-38
Huazhu Group (HTHT)	30.89	38-40	34-35.5
Invitae (NVTA)	32.06	22.5-24.5	19-20
iRobot (IRBT)	103.17	118-122	107-110
ProPetro (PUMP)	23.30	20.5-21.5	18.2-18.9
Shopify (SHOP)	585.00	194-200	178-182
Sleep Number (SNBR)	35.80	45-47	41-42.5
StoneCo (STNE)	27.54	37-39.5	31.5-33
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)	34.43	23.5-24.5	21.5-22
Wix.com (WIX)	302.53	116-120	107-110