Thanks to all of you who joined us for our Cabot Wealth Summit in August. It was a great few days—lots of new ideas to share amid a backdrop of a still bullish market.
Sentiment continues to be bullish, but cautious. And Value stocks are still leading Growth. So far in 2021, we are seeing double-digit returns across both styles, with the exception of small-cap growth stocks, which are up 7.6% year-to-date.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has stayed above 35,000, propped up by a fabulous earnings season. According to FactSet, 87% of S&P 500 companies reported both a positive EPS and revenue surprises.
The economy continues strengthening, with a nice drop in the unemployment rate, to 5.2%. Home sales are helping tremendously. Although inventory continues to be a challenge, the rise in prices (18.6%) are helping to mitigate that.
Consumer confidence remains strong, although we are still battling COVID, and hoping that the variant does not derail all the good progress.
In the meantime, I’m constantly searching for new ideas for you, and am pleased that our portfolio continues to outperform.
Please don’t hesitate to email me with your thoughts and questions. I look forward to hearing from you.
Happy Investing!
State of the Markets | WSBS 921
The broad markets continue climbing with the DJIA up another 500 points or so since last month’s issue. I’m keeping a close eye on any outliers, maintaining fairly tight stops, and continuing to look for opportunities to cash in on our gains.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite Index
Feature Recommendation | WSBS 921
The Hispanic population is blossoming in the U.S., which is home to the largest population of Hispanic and Latino people outside of Latin America. As you can see by the chart below, Hispanic people now comprise 18.5% of this country’s population.
And that fact has not gone unnoticed by entertainment companies who wish to cater to that growing segment of consumers. Both Univision and Telemundo have made great inroads into the market. Univision ranked as the No. 1 Spanish-language network during primetime for the twenty-fourth consecutive week in the current 2020/2021 season with double-digit audience advantages over Telemundo among Total Viewers 2+ (+30% adv.), Adults 18-49 (+16% adv.) and Adults 18-34 (+11% adv.).
As you can see, those numbers are on the rise—especially as streaming has taken off, due to COVID. According to Statista.com, 67% of Hispanic viewers in the U.S. have smart TVs, and 45% are streaming.
Entravision is a smaller player in the market, but has been operating in the U.S. since 1996, when the founder of the company, Walter Ulloa, bought a small TV station in El Centro, California.
Evolving into a Diversified Powerhouse
From that humble beginning, the company has evolved into a diversified global media, marketing, and technology company. Entravision operates through three segments: Television, Radio, and Digital. Its universe covers not only U.S. consumers, but also other markets in Mexico, Latin America, and Spain.
Entravision products include digital media properties and advertising technology platforms.
Its Cisneros Interactive supports advertisers and agencies in their local selling efforts, providing credit and local payment options. Its Smadex platform enables clients to purchase electronically and manage data-driven advertising campaigns. And AudioEngage is a digital audio advertising platform that hosts radio and music programs and podcasts.
Entravision also owns ScrollerAds, a programmatic seller of video advertising; and Dataxpand, a data management platform, which allows businesses to gain insights into consumer-related data. And its Entravision Solutions sells national advertising and syndicates radio programming.
Today, the company owns 55 television stations and 47 radio stations in the U.S., and is the largest affiliate group of both the Univision and UniMás television networks. And it offers interactive digital services in 21 countries.
Its customers come from a variety of industries, including e-commerce, entertainment, gaming, delivery services, financial technology, communications, lifestyle, and travel. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.
Acquisitions Adding to the Bottom Line
The company has grown organically, and externally, by making smart acquisitions. In July, Entravision acquired MediaDonuts, a Singapore-headquartered business with 500 clients in 7 countries. It is the leading digital marketing and advertising company in Southeast Asia.
And at the end of August, Entravision announced that it had acquired the remaining 49% interest in Cisneros Interactive, which it began buying last October, and which is expected to propel the company into one of the largest premier global digital advertising solutions companies.
Strengthening Financials
As you can see from the following graph, ad spending is growing significantly, which should continue to boost Entervision’s bottom line.
For its second quarter, revenues rose 295%, and adjusted EBITDA was up 932%, mostly due to the company’s digital business. That segment is now 73% of revenues, Entravision’s largest division.
Going forward, two analysts have increased their EPS estimates, and Wall Street expects the company to grow its earnings at a rate of more than 13% next year.
With a P/E of just 15.58, double-digit growth, and a nice dividend yield, I think Entravision is a good bet for the future.
Entravision Communications Corporation (EVC) 52-Week Low/High: $1.25-$7.97 Shares Outstanding: 61.68M Institutionally Owned: 76.35% Market Capitalization: $661.55M Dividend yield: 1.43%, paid quarterly Website: entravision.com | Why Entravision Communications Corporation?
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Top Institutional Holders
Holder | Shares | Date Reported | % Out | Value |
American Century Companies, Inc. | 9,497,529 | 29-Jun-21 | 15.40% | 63,443,493 |
Blackrock Inc. | 6,764,913 | 29-Jun-21 | 10.97% | 45,189,618 |
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 3,970,007 | 29-Jun-21 | 6.44% | 26,519,646 |
Renaissance Technologies, LLC | 2,834,672 | 29-Jun-21 | 4.60% | 18,935,608 |
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) | 2,670,678 | 29-Jun-21 | 4.33% | 17,840,129 |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | 2,082,254 | 29-Jun-21 | 3.38% | 13,909,456 |
State Street Corporation | 1,202,618 | 29-Jun-21 | 1.95% | 8,033,488 |
Acadian Asset Management. LLC | 1,164,168 | 29-Jun-21 | 1.89% | 7,776,642 |
Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 935,166 | 29-Jun-21 | 1.52% | 6,246,908 |
Geode Capital Management, LLC | 932,670 | 29-Jun-21 | 1.51% | 6,230,235 |
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Technical Analysis
The shares of Entravision have risen 175% so far this year. It’s progressed from a penny stock to heights the stock hasn’t seen since 2015. But I think there’s lots more room to grow.
The communications sector is doing well, up 4.43% since last month. Both new technology and expanding markets should keep the shares of EVC climbing higher. They have passed both the 50-day and 200-day moving average, and have sufficient support around 7.18. I expect to see a little resistance at the 9 level, but believe the company will surpass that and meet our target price within the next year or so.
Price Target: 10.10
Stop Loss: 5.40
Sector Round-Up | WSBS 921
So far in 2021, the three best-performing sectors are: Financial Services (up 29.5%), Communications Services, (up 27.5%), and Energy (up 25.8%). The bottom three are: Consumer Staples (up 7.7%), Utilities (up 10.7%), and Consumer Discretionary (up 14.2%).
As with last month’s note, even the worst sectors are up—not bad!
Our pick this month is a mixture of growth, value, and income—a nice hedge in a bull market that also gives us some cash flow.
Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) | ||
Ticker | Fund Name | Net Flows |
SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 6,867.40 |
QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 2,090.36 |
VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1,677.12 |
IWM | IShares Ruessell 2000 ETF | 1,598.87 |
VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 1,337.84 |
SCZ | iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF | 1,045.60 |
IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | 790.16 |
BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 768.18 |
XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund | 675.96 |
TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 595.09 |
Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs) | ||
Ticker | Fund Name | Net Flows |
LQD | iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | -740.60 |
VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF | -577.02 |
TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -327.76 |
SOXL | Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares | -326.10 |
TNA | Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares | -264.76 |
VOE | Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF | -228.78 |
EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | -190.89 |
LABU | Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares | -179.42 |
SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -169.16 |
SPTL | SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | -165.76 |
Portfolio Updates | WSBS 921
Conservative Stocks
As a conservative investor, you are less willing to accept market swings and significant changes in the value of your portfolio in the short- or long-term. Capital preservation is your primary goal, and you may plan on using the principal from your investments in the near-term, preferably as a steady income stream. The average level of return you expect to see is 5%-10%, annually.
The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Coca-Cola produced a healthy second-quarter report, its seventh straight quarter of earnings beats and its second consecutive sales beat. As the economy continued to reopen, the company climbed out of the decline it had seen last year due to COVID closing so many restaurants and bars.
Management said that many of its gains came from an improved price/mix (better margins), an increase in concentrate sales and higher unit case volume.
Revenue increased by 42%, to $10.13 billion and EPS grew to $0.68, up from $0.41 from the same quarter last year. The company issued guidance, noting that it expects EPS growth of 13%-15% for the whole year. Hold
Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF)
Sun Life once again beat earnings estimates for its second quarter (the eighth consecutive quarter), posting EPS of $1.99 per share—34.1% better than last year.
The gains were driven by a 14.7% rise in insurance sales (particularly in Canada and Asia) and rising global asset management.
The shares are cheap, and this is one for the long haul. Buy
Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)
Our newest pick, Mueller Water Products reported EPS of $0.18 per share, beating the estimate of $0.16 per share, and seven cents higher than last year’s June quarter. Shares are up about 15% since our recommendation, but I think there’s still room to add a bit. Buy
TC Energy Corporation (TRP)
TC Energy is expected to grow at double-digit rates for the next few years. The company announced that it “was advancing on a CA$21 billion capital program to pursue more infrastructure opportunities,” which should help it continue to rapidly grow.
These shares have a 5.85% dividend yield, which nicely adds to our gains. Hold
Moderate Stocks
As a moderate investor, you seek longer-term investment gains. You are comfortable with some swings in your portfolio’s performance, but generally seek to invest in more conservative stocks that build wealth over a substantial period of time. The average level of return you expect to see is 10%-25% annually.
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
In another earnings beat, NSA posted funds from operations of $0.55 per share, beating the analyst estimate of $0.51 per share, and walloping last year’s $0.41 per share.
The REIT also increased its dividend 7.9%, to $0.41 per share, for a total annual dividend of $1.64. Hold
Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (SRC)
Spirit Realty also beat analysts’ earnings forecasts, reporting funds from operations of $0.86 per share, beating the estimate of $0.77 per share, and surpassing last year’s FFO of $0.71 per share.
During the second quarter, Spirit invested $283.7 million for 18 properties, and also acquired 22 golf clubs. Additionally, the REIT generated $74.6 million in gross proceeds from the disposition of 11 properties.
Lastly, management raised its guidance for fiscal year 2021, noting it expects to see AFFO (adjusted funds from operations) of $3.24 to $3.30 per share and net capital deployment of $0.8 billion to $1.0 billion (comprising acquisitions, revenue producing capital expenditures and development deals, net of dispositions). Hold
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Toronto-Dominion Bank increased its EPS to C$2.04 per share, beating the estimate of C$1.66. And revenues rose from C$8.71 billion to C$10.71 billion.
The bank said the gains were due to higher loan balances (especially personal and mortgage loans) and recovery of credit losses. Hold
Aggressive Stocks
As an aggressive investor, you primarily seek capital appreciation and are open to more risk. Swings in the market, whether short term or long term do not impact your investment decisions and you have confidence that volatility is necessary to achieve the high return-on-investment you are looking for. You typically expect a 25%+ return, annually, though you do not need your principal investment immediately.
OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF)
This financial stock continues to perform well yet remains undervalued with a P/E of just 5.62. It yields a whopping 4.87%. Last month, we took some profits, but I’m content to hold for more. Hold
Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM)
I still believe Primoris will pay off for us once the new infrastructure program becomes reality. And others seem to agree. Recently, Director Terry McCallister acquired a total of 10,000 shares at an average price of 24.61.
Primoris continues to expand, booking two solar contracts for engineering, procurement, and construction of a utility-scale solar facility in the Southwest and Midwest for more than $120 million, as well as a contract for engineering, procurement and construction of a thermal power project worth $100 million. I’m changing my recommendation back to Buy.
Textainer Group Holdings Limited (TGH)
Textainer Group blew through its earnings estimates of $1.19 per share, reporting EPS of $1.48 per share. Revenues were $187.43 million up from $144.77 last year.
Earnings estimates are moving higher as the economy strengthens. Hold
ETFs & Mutual Funds
All of our funds and ETFs are in the positive column, with gains of 2%-108%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) leads the way, rising 108%. As long as the market continues on its bullish path, I’m going to stick with that one. Hold
The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VIG) has gained 56% overall and is up some 2% since last issue. I believe this dividend fund will be a keeper for a long while, but we may take some profits in the next few months. Hold
Three ETFs that are still good buys are Invesco Aerospace & Defense (PPA), First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index (FGD, changing from Hold to Buy), and Invesco S&P Global Water Index (CGW). Buy
We’ll let all our other funds and ETFs ride for now. Hold
Current Portfolio | WSBS 921
Wall Street’s Best Stocks Portfolio | ||||||||
Conservative Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 9/3/21 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
The Coca-Cola Company | KO | 2/2/21 | $41.90 | $56.73 | $0.84 | Quarterly | 37% | Hold |
Mueller Water Products, Inc. | MWA | 8/3/21 | $14.93 | $16.20 | $0.06 | Quarterly | 9% | Buy |
Sun Life Financial Inc. | SLF | 6/2/21 | $54.08 | $51.67 | $0.44 | Quarterly | -4% | Buy |
TC Energy Corporation | TRP | 2/2/21 | $42.73 | $48.34 | $1.40 | Quarterly | 16% | Hold |
Moderate Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 9/3/21 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
National Storage Affiliates Trust | NSA | 2/2/21 | $27.39 | $58.77 | $0.73 | Quarterly | 117% | Hold |
Spirit Realty Capital | SRC | 2/2/21 | $42.27 | $51.95 | $1.25 | Quarterly | 26% | Hold |
The Toronto-Dominion Bank | TD | 2/2/21 | $40.82 | $65.83 | $1.26 | Quarterly | 64% | Hold |
Aggressive Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 9/3/21 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
Entravision Communications Corporation | EVC | 9/7/21 | New | $7.44 | — | Quarterly | — | Buy |
OneMain Holdings, Inc. | OMF | 2/2/21 | $29.49 | $56.85 | $8.85 | Quarterly | 123% | Hold |
Primoris Services | PRIM | 3/2/21 | $34.98 | $26.53 | $0.12 | Quarterly | -24% | Buy |
Textainer Group Holdings | TGH | 4/1/21 | $28.77 | $33.83 | $0.00 | — | 18% | Hold |
ETFs | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 9/3/21 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
Cohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income | RNP | 2/2/21 | $23.34 | $28.38 | $0.87 | Monthly | 25% | Hold |
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR | XLY | 2/2/21 | $116.94 | $183.52 | $0.52 | Quarterly | 57% | Hold |
First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund | FGD | 5/5/21 | $26.11 | $26.29 | $0.39 | Quarterly | 2% | Buy |
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF | PPA | 4/1/21 | $72.87 | $73.64 | $0.11 | Quarterly | 1% | Buy |
Invesco S&P Global Water Index ETF | CGW | 6/2/21 | $54.03 | $60.36 | $0.00 | Yearly | 12% | Buy |
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | SPY | 2/2/21 | $218.25 | $453.08 | $2.65 | Quarterly | 109% | Hold |
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index | VIG | 2/2/21 | $105.13 | $162.87 | $1.19 | Quarterly | 56% | Hold |
Mutual Funds | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 9/3/21 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
Artisan Mid Cap Fund Investor Class | ARTMX | 2/2/21 | $37.29 | $56.33 | $0.00 | Yearly | 51% | Hold |
Fidelity Balanced | FBALX | 2/2/21 | $23.88 | $32.35 | $0.12 | Quarterly | 36% | Hold |
Sold Positions | ||||||||
Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Date Sold | Price Bought | Price Sold | Div Freq. | Dividends YTD | Gain/ Loss % |
cbdMD, Inc. | YCBD | 2/2/21 | 3/31/21 | $2.25 | $4.06 | — | 0.00 | 80% |
Clean Ener-gy Fuels Corp. | CLNE | 2/2/21 | 3/2/21 | $2.63 | $13.66 | — | 0.00 | 419% |
Conagra Brands, Inc. | CAG | 2/2/21 | 8/3/21 | $29.87 | $33.33 | Quarterly | 0.59 | 14% |
Investors Bancorp, Inc. | ISBC | 7/6/21 | 8/3/21 | $13.90 | $13.72 | Quarterly | 0.14 | 0% |
Orange S.A. | ORAN | 5/4/21 | 7/7/21 | $12.61 | $11.16 | Semi Annually | 0.61 | -7% |
Unilever PLC | UL | 2/2/21 | 5/3/21 | $42.84 | $59.12 | Quarterly | 0.51 | 39% |
ETFs | Symbol | Date Bought | Date Sold | Price Bought | Price Sold | Div Freq. | Dividends YTD | Gain/ Loss % |
Technology Select Sector SPDR | XLK | 2/2/21 | 3/2/21 | $42.01 | $133.88 | Quarterly | 0.00 | 219% |
Mutual Funds | Symbol | Date Bought | Date Sold | Price Bought | Price Sold | Div Freq. | Dividends YTD | Gain/ Loss % |
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth | TRBCX | 2/2/21 | 4/1/2021 | $90.40 | $169.55 | Yearly | $0.00 | 88% |
Needham Small Cap Growth Retail Class | NESGX | 2/2/21 | 5/5/2021 | $14.61 | $27.28 | Yearly | $0.00 | 87% |
Fidelity Select Industrials Portfolio | FCYIX | 3/2/21 | 6/2/21 | $37.95 | $37.66 | Quarterly | $0.73 | 1% |
Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund, Inc | UTF | 2/2/21 | 6/24/21 | $37.95 | $27.85 | Monthly | $0.62 | -25% |
The More You Know | WSBS 921
You only need to turn on the TV to see gurus and best-selling authors who can’t wait to sell you their latest stock market gimmicks that promise you “instant millions.” Their “guaranteed” technical trading systems, proprietary methodologies, complex economic models, and even some that chart astrological systems, are generally not worth the paper they are written on.
In my years of investing, I have yet to see any of these “systems” consistently beat a good old-fashioned look at a company, its industry and how it relates to the current and projected economic realities.
If a business is fundamentally strong (i.e., it actually makes money), has a diversified product line, and is in a solid position in its market, you are 90% of the way to finding a good investment. The remaining 10% is just a matter of looking at a few parameters – no matter what the company does – to determine if it’s the best stock for your investment dollars.
Here, I want to discuss seven key metrics that should be reviewed before buying any stock. These indicators should help you get most of the way to understanding a company, its operations, and its underlying business.
- Institutional activity. Pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and corporations that buy and sell huge blocks of shares can create tremendous volatility in prices. To lessen this risk in your investments, try to buy shares in companies where institutions own less than 40% of their shares. You can find this information at finance.yahoo.com, in the Holders section.
- Analyst coverage. Another indication of future share volatility is the number of Wall Street analysts covering a stock. Analysts—like the big institutions—have a herd mentality. When one sells, often, so do the rest, resulting in greater numbers of shares changing hands, and usually leading to price declines. It’s best to avoid companies with more than 20, or fewer than 2 analysts following them. (You need some analyst interest, or you may be waiting a long time for price appreciation, even in the strongest and most undervalued company). You can locate the number of analysts at finance.yahoo.com; then select Analysis. Many times, the companies in which you are interested will also publish which analysts cover their stock, on their Investor Relations page.
- Price-earnings ratio (P/E). The price of one share of a company’s stock divided by four quarters of its earnings per share (usually the last four quarters; the trailing P/E ratio), the P/E ratio is of utmost importance in determining if a company’s shares are over- or under-valued. For the best perspective, go to reuters.com/search, enter your stock symbol, then select Financials and compare the current P/E of the company to its average P/E for the last 3-5 years, to its estimated future P/E and to the average P/E of its industry or sector. One note: If a company’s P/E is more than 35, it might be too pricey. You may want to stick with companies that are trading at lower P/Es, particularly if you are fairly new to investing. Almost any financial web site will feature trailing P/E ratios and forward P/E ratios for a given stock. Note: Reuters has almost 50 comparative ratios on its site.
- Cash flow. One of the most important parts of a financial report is its Statement of Cash Flows, which is a summary of how the company made and spent its money. Go to finance.yahoo.com, Financials, then to Cash Flow and select Annual or Quarterly, depending on which period you want to review. Then find Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities, which represents the cash the company took in from its primary business operations. If it sells clothes, it’s the cash collected from selling clothes.
It’s important that this number be positive, or at least trending positive over the course of a year. After all, if the business isn’t making money from its primary product—not from investing in real estate or the stock market—then you probably want to pass it by.
- Debt/equity. This ratio is how much debt per dollar of ownership the business has incurred. Compare the firm’s historic debt/equity ratios, so you can find out if its debt level over the past few years has been rising too rapidly. Debt isn’t bad, as long as it is used as a springboard to grow sales and earnings. Next, contrast the company’s ratio with its competitors and its industry so you can further determine if your company’s debt position is reasonable. These ratios can also be found at Reuters under the Key Metrics tab.
- Growing sales and income. A rule of thumb that has always served me well: Buy shares in companies whose sales and net income are growing at double-digit rates. I cannot emphasize this enough, as, appreciation in stock prices is generally precipitated by growth in earnings (which usually follows expansion of sales). It’s certainly possible to buy stock in a company that has no earnings growth (a new business, or a tech company in the late 90’s, for example) and still make money on the shares—short term—but it’s not a formula for serious, successful long-term investing. This ratio can also be found on Reuters, on the Financials page.
- Insider activity. Investors will also want to review the buying and selling activities of a company’s insiders—its top officers and directors. A sudden rush to sell large quantities of the firm’s shares may be a good indicator that the business is falling on rough times. Likewise, a large increase in purchases may mean good news is on the way. The website, nasdaq.com, under the Insiders tab, lists all the recent insider activity at the company, as well as the number of shares remaining after the sale—an extremely important figure.
I would like to leave you with one last thought on using these indicators: Remember that no one ratio will determine the validity or potential of your investment. It is of utmost importance that you take a complete look at a company’s financial strength and its future prospects, by conducting a thorough analysis—over time—usually a 3-5 year track-record.
The next Wall Street’s Best Stocks issue will be published on October 5, 2021.
Cabot Wealth Network
Publishing independent investment advice since 1970.
President & CEO: Ed Coburn
Chief Investment Strategist: Timothy Lutts
Cabot Heritage Corporation, doing business as Cabot Wealth Network
176 North Street, PO Box 2049, Salem, MA 01970 USA
800-326-8826 | support@cabotwealth.com | CabotWealth.com
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