Summer is in full swing, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken 35,000! Value stocks are still leading the charge, but Growth stocks have come on strong.
The markets had a brief rattle earlier this week, most likely due to China’s new tough regulatory environment, as well as the rapid spreading (again!) of coronavirus, particularly the Delta variant. However, they did quickly rebound, which shows the markets’ resilience.
Here at Cabot, we’re still mostly bullish (as are most of my advisors to Wall Street’s Best Digest). But that doesn’t mean that the market is going to continue to push the majority of stocks up. Instead, as I’ve been noting lately, this is definitely a stock picker’s market.
As I research stocks and funds to suggest to you in these pages, I am not only looking at fundamentally strong stocks, but also reviewing the industries and sectors to ascertain which areas are likely to see appreciation over the next 6-12 months.
The economy continues on a strong path, with housing still booming (prices are up 17% month-to-month); unemployment is steadily dropping; and consumer confidence is rising. Second-quarter earnings look very healthy, and as long as that trend continues, the market and economy should prosper.
I also wanted to let you know that we’re making a couple of changes to Wall Street’s Best Stocks this month. We decided—after reviewing our mission for both Wall Street’s Best Stocks and Wall Street’s Best ETFs—that our subscribers would be better served if we combine the two newsletters, putting all of the recommendations in one place and reducing the number of emails you receive from us. So, that’s what we are doing this issue!
From now on, I’ll be maintaining a portfolio of both stocks and funds/ETFs in the Wall Street’s Best Stocks portfolio, so that you can see all of my recommendations at one glance. And every month, I will offer you a new recommendation or two—stocks and/or funds, with the same thorough write-up you are used to seeing. I hope that this will make it easier for you to keep track of all of my recommendations.
The second change is that Kate Stalter is moving on to other Cabot projects, and I want to thank her for her past assistance and wish her the best.
Well, let’s get on with it! This month, I’m going to recommend that you make a couple of partial sales to lock in your profits, along with a new stock idea.
And don’t forget—our Cabot Wealth Virtual Summit, the 9th Annual Smarter Investing Greater Profits Online Conference, is right around the corner. Won’t you join us on August 17-19? You may register here.
I look forward to seeing you!
Happy Investing!
State of the Markets | WSBS 821
As you can see, the broad markets had a pretty good month, and continue on a bullish pattern, with all three indices regularly reaching new highs. At this point, I don’t see any reason for worry, but we will keep our positions tight, and take profits when available.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500
Nasdaq Composite Index
Feature Recommendation | WSBS 821
I first recommended the shares of Mueller Water Products back in October 2009, when I was writing the Buried Treasures Under $10 newsletter. The price was $5.48. It’s just about tripled since then, but I think it has lots more room to grow!
The primary reason is the failing water infrastructure in this country. As I discussed in my webinar last week, a water main break occurs every two minutes in the U.S. and an estimated 6 billion gallons of treated water is lost each day—enough to fill over 9,000 swimming pools.
In the newest version of the proposed infrastructure bill, President Biden is asking for $55 billion to:
- Deliver clean drinking water to 10 million American families and more than 400,000 schools and childcare facilities.
- Remove lead service lines and pipes.
According to watermainbreakclock.com, 850 water main breaks occur in North America every day. And Economic Recovery reports that “the annual drinking water and wastewater investment gap will grow to $434 billion by 2029. Additionally, the cost to comply with the EPA’s 2019 Lead and Copper Rule is estimated at between $130 million and $286 million.” The EPA estimates that the U.S. still has 6 to 10 million lead service lines.
And it’s not just lead in our water that we have to worry about. According to Mueller company research, the average age of water pipes has increased to 45 years in 2020 from 25 years in 1970, and more than 16% of North America’s underground water infrastructure is past its design service life.
And that’s where Mueller comes in. When I first wrote about the company, it owned a burgeoning pipe business. Mueller sold that off in 2017 and now focuses on two areas:
In its Infrastructure division, Mueller makes valves for water and gas systems, including iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, automatic control and ball valves, as well as dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants, and a broad line of pipe repair products, such as clamps and couplings used to repair leaks. Sales in this area come from spending on water and wastewater infrastructure upgrade, repair and replacement (two-thirds of net sales) and by construction of new water and wastewater infrastructure, which is typically associated with construction of new residential communities. Infrastructure operates fourteen manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Canada, Israel and China.
Mueller’s Technologies division offers residential and commercial water metering, water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products, systems and services. Technologies is comprised of the Mueller Systems, which sells water metering systems, products, services and software directly to municipalities and to waterworks distributors; and Echologics, which sells water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products and services primarily to municipalities. Technologies operates one manufacturing facility in the United States and contracts with a manufacturing facility in Mexico.
Mueller is the go-to company when municipalities, the developers who build commercial and residential properties, and the leaders in the oil and gas, heating and air conditioning, as well as fire protection industries, think of water.
The company claims, “it is one of the only businesses that can fulfill the needs of water utilities from end to end—at the source, at the plant, below the ground, on the street and in the clouds.”
Mueller claims the #1 position with the largest installed bases of iron gate valves and fire hydrants in the United States. Its iron gate valve or fire hydrant products are specified for use in the largest 100 metropolitan areas in the United States
The company is also the market leader in butterfly valves, and #2 in brass products.
It’s really no surprise. After all, Mueller has been in business for 160 years. German immigrant Hieronymus Mueller began with a shop that made keys and guns in 1857, in Decatur, Illinois. Truly an inventor, he was always tinkering and even designed and built the Mueller-Benz, one of the first “horseless carriages.”
That pioneering spirit led to the design of a machine which allowed water taps to be made under pressure. And the rest is, as they say, “history.”
The company was part of Walters Industries, but was spun off into an independent concern in 2006.
Today, Mueller has a market cap of more than $2 billion, annual revenues of almost a billion dollars. It has a nice dividend yield of 1.49%, with quarterly dividends of $0.055.
Earnings are expected on August 4, with EPS forecasts of $0.16/share on revenues of $268.94M. That EPS estimate is 45.5% growth over last year.
Mueller has beaten analyst estimates for the past four quarters, so I won’t be surprised if it happens again. So, let’s buy now, before the infrastructure craze begins.
| Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) 52-Week Low/High: $9.88 - 15.11 Shares Outstanding: 158.53M Institutionally Owned: 90.61% Market Capitalization: $2.341B Dividend yield: 1.49%, paid quarterly Website: muellerwaterproducts.com | Why Mueller Water Products?
|
| Top Institutional Holders | ||||
| Holder | Shares | Date Reported | % Out | Value |
| Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) | 14,315,560 | Mar 30, 2021 | 9.03% | 198,843,128 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 13,233,458 | Mar 30, 2021 | 8.35% | 183,812,731 |
| Impax Asset Management Group Plc | 12,096,848 | Mar 30, 2021 | 7.63% | 168,025,218 |
| Nuance Investments, LLC | 8,826,343 | Mar 30, 2021 | 5.57% | 122,597,904 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 7,976,765 | Mar 30, 2021 | 5.03% | 110,797,265 |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | 7,277,184 | Mar 30, 2021 | 4.59% | 101,080,085 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 5,763,178 | Mar 30, 2021 | 3.64% | 80,050,542 |
| Eaton Vance Management | 5,088,631 | Mar 30, 2021 | 3.21% | 70,681,084 |
| Gamco Investors Inc | 4,150,781 | Mar 30, 2021 | 2.62% | 57,654,348 |
| State Street Corporation | 3,287,143 | Mar 30, 2021 | 2.07% | 45,658,416 |
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Technical Analysis
Mueller shares are up 21.5% so far this year. It seems that each time it looks like an infrastructure bill is getting close to reality, the shares get a boost, then they take a bit of a breather. But even without the federal funds that will be allocated to water infrastructure, Mueller will continue to grow its business.
Technically speaking, the shares look attractive on the short and long term. They have broken through the 50- and 200-day moving averages. We may see some resistance around $18.20, but I think, longer term, we’ll see a breakout beyond that point.
Price Target:$19.25
Stop Loss: $12.50
Sector Round-Up | WSBS 821
The top three sectors so far this year are: Energy, up 32.4%; Real Estate, up 26.4%; and Financial Services, up 24.9%. The worst three are: Consumer Staples, up 5.8%; Utilities, up 6.1%; and Consumer Discretionary, up 14.6%. I would say it’s a pretty good year when the worst sectors are all in the plus column!
Since our last issue, the tide has turned a bit, with Utilities, Healthcare, and Technology sectors leading the way.
We are still seeing a lot of interest in Value, especially in small caps, so we’ll keep that in mind as we build our portfolio.
| Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) | ||
| Ticker | Fund Name | Net Flows |
| BSV | Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF | 5,473.51 |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 3,446.17 |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 3,015.13 |
| TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 2,049.56 |
| ESGU | iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF | 1,386.64 |
| EFG | iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF | 1,259.44 |
| IXN | iShares Global Tech ETF | 1,059.81 |
| SDY | SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | 976.56 |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 917.15 |
| KWEB | KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF | 790.88 |
| Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs) | ||
| Ticker | Fund Name | Net Flows |
| GOVT | iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | -2,096.78 |
| IGSB | iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | -1,458.37 |
| MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | -1,225.80 |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | -1,062.22 |
| IEF | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -717.33 |
| VGT | Vanguard Information Technology ETF | -420.04 |
| AAXJ | iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF | -336.59 |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -310.12 |
| ESGE | iShares ESG Aware MSCI EM ETF | -292.82 |
| IXG | iShares Global Financials ETF | -253.18 |
Portfolio Updates | WSBS 821
Conservative Stocks
As a conservative investor, you are less willing to accept market swings and significant changes in the value of your portfolio in the short- or long-term. Capital preservation is your primary goal, and you may plan on using the principal from your investments in the near-term, preferably as a steady income stream. The average level of return you expect to see is 5%-10%, annually.
The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
The shares of Coca-Cola have benefited from the reopening of economies worldwide, as well as the company’s focus on a larger digital presence. If we can quickly defeat the resurgence of the pandemic, the shares of Coca-Cola should continue to pay off for us. Shares are up about 5% for the month. Hold
Investors Bancorp, Inc. (ISBC)
I have to say, I didn’t expect a buyout this soon of our latest recommendation, but Investors Bancorp announced that it’s being acquired by Citizens Financial Group (CFG), a $185 billion (assets) bank based in Rhode Island. The offer is at $14.63/share and the merger is expected to close in the first half of 2022. Although it’s not a huge premium to our purchase price, it’s a nice 4% or so rise for a month’s holding. Since I think we can deploy that money in a stock with more appreciation potential, let’s Sell the shares now.
Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF)
Sun Life is expected to report quarterly earnings on August 4. Current estimates are for EPS of $0.89 on revenues of $6.38B.
In July, Sun Life closed its acquisition of Pinnacle Care International, a leading U.S. health-care navigation and medical intelligence provider, for $85 million.
Shares of SLF had a nice recovery in the past few weeks. The stock is showing resistance at around $55/share, and I think we’ll see it roll through that in a further move upward. Buy
TC Energy Corporation (TRP)
Canadian pipeline company TC Energy beat EPS estimates by $0.03 in its second quarter, posting earnings of $0.65/share. The company also declared a dividend of $0.87/share. Double-digit growth is expected in the next few years for this company. Hold
Moderate Stocks
As a moderate investor, you seek longer-term investment gains. You are comfortable with some swings in your portfolio’s performance, but generally seek to invest in more conservative stocks that build wealth over a substantial period of time. The average level of return you expect to see is 10%-25% annually.
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)
Conagra announced an increase in its dividend to $0.31, effective September 2. The company beat both EPS and revenues in its fourth fiscal quarter, earning 54 cents, on net sales of $2,739.5 million. However, the company’s guidance includes rising inflation, which caused its shares to retract. We are sitting on a gain of 38%, and I recommend that we take our profits. Sell
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
This REIT is expected to report earnings on August 4, with earnings estimates of $0.30 on revenues of $129.65M. I still love this stock, but want to take some partial profits, as we are up 101%. Sell a Half
Spirit Realty Capital, Inc. (SRC)
This REIT will report earnings on August 3, with estimates of $0.26/share on revenues of $137.78M. Hold
Aggressive Stocks
As an aggressive investor, you primarily seek capital appreciation and are open to more risk. Swings in the market, whether short term or long term do not impact your investment decisions and you have confidence that volatility is necessary to achieve the high return-on-investment you are looking for. You typically expect a 25%+ return, annually, though you do not need your principal investment immediately.
OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF)
OneMain earned $2.66/share in its second quarter, handily beating analysts’ estimates of $2.22. The company booked revenues of $708 million, and declared a dividend of $4.20, an extra $3.50 on top of its regular $0.70 per share. Our gain is 124% so far, so I’m recommending that we take some partial profits on this stock also. Let’s Sell a Half
Textainer Group Holdings Limited (TGH)
Textainer reports earnings on August 5, with estimates of $1.19/share on revenues of $186.63M. The shares look ripe for further acceleration. Hold
ETFs
First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund (FGD)
FGD is beginning to benefit from its financial services holdings, which add up to some 46.1% of its holdings. Investors will also keep some cash flow growing with the fund’s 4.22% dividend yield. Buy
Invesco S&P Global Water Index ETF (CGW)
CGW is up 14.64% for the month, helped by the rise in its industrial holdings. The fund’s largest holdings are American Water Works Co Inc (AWK, 9.50%of assets), Xylem Inc (XYL, 9.26%), and Veolia Environnement SA (VIE.PA, 5.36%). Buy
Mutual Funds
Artisan Mid Cap Fund Investor Class (ARTMX)
Mid-caps continued to perform well in the last month, gaining 18.7% (value) and 11.5% (growth). That served the fund well, and its price edged up a bit. Hold
Current Portfolio | WSBS 821
| Wall Street’s Best Stocks Portfolio | ||||||||
| Conservative Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 8/2/2021 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
| The Coca-Cola Company | KO | 2/2/21 | $41.90 | $56.88 | $0.84 | Quarterly | 38% | Hold |
| Investors Bancorp, Inc. | ISBC | 7/6/21 | $13.90 | $13.68 | $0.00 | Quarterly | -2% | Sell |
| Mueller Water Products, Inc. | MWA | 8/3/21 | New | $14.75 | $0.00 | Quarterly | New | Buy |
| Sun Life Financial Inc. | SLF | 6/2/21 | $54.08 | $51.83 | $0.00 | Quarterly | -4% | Buy |
| TC Energy Corporation | TRP | 2/2/21 | $42.73 | $48.31 | $1.40 | Quarterly | 16% | Hold |
| Moderate Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 8/2/2021 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
| Conagra Brands, Inc. | CAG | 2/2/21 | $29.87 | $33.38 | $0.59 | Quarterly | 14% | Sell |
| National Storage Affiliates Trust | NSA | 2/2/21 | $27.39 | $54.27 | $0.73 | Quarterly | 101% | Sell a Half |
| Spirit Realty Capital | SRC | 2/2/21 | $42.27 | $49.85 | $1.25 | Quarterly | 21% | Hold |
| The Toronto-Dominion Bank | TD | 2/2/21 | $40.82 | $65.98 | $1.26 | Quarterly | 65% | Hold |
| Aggressive Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 8/2/2021 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
| OneMain Holdings, Inc. | OMF | 2/2/21 | $29.49 | $60.70 | $4.65 | Quarterly | 122% | Sell a Half |
| Primoris Services | PRIM | 3/2/21 | $34.98 | $29.60 | $0.12 | Quarterly | -15% | Hold |
| Textainer Group Holdings | TGH | 4/1/21 | $28.77 | $32.25 | $0.00 | — | 12% | Hold |
| ETFs | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 8/2/2021 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
| Cohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income | RNP | 2/2/21 | $23.34 | $26.61 | $0.74 | Monthly | 17% | Hold |
| Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR | XLY | 2/2/21 | $116.94 | $180.95 | $0.52 | Quarterly | 55% | Hold |
| First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund | FGD | 5/5/21 | $26.11 | $25.76 | $0.39 | Quarterly | 0% | Buy |
| Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF | PPA | 4/1/21 | $72.87 | $74.65 | $0.11 | Quarterly | 3% | Hold |
| Invesco S&P Global Water Index ETF | CGW | 6/2/21 | $54.03 | $57.24 | $0.00 | Yearly | 6% | Buy |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | SPY | 2/2/21 | $218.25 | $437.59 | $2.65 | Quarterly | 102% | Hold |
| Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index | VIG | 2/2/21 | $105.13 | $159.28 | $1.19 | Quarterly | 53% | Hold |
| Mutual Funds | Symbol | Date Bought | Price Bought | Price on 8/2/2021 | Dividends YTD | Div Freq. | Gain/ Loss % | Rating |
| Artisan Mid Cap Fund Investor Class | ARTMX | 2/2/21 | $37.29 | $53.70 | $0.00 | Yearly | 44% | Hold |
| Fidelity Balanced | FBALX | 2/2/21 | $23.88 | $31.65 | $0.12 | Quarterly | 33% | Hold |
| Sold Positions | ||||||||
| Stocks | Symbol | Date Bought | Date Sold | Price Bought | Price Sold | Div Freq. | Dividends YTD | Gain/ Loss % |
| cbdMD, Inc. | YCBD | 2/2/21 | 3/31/21 | $2.25 | 4.06 | — | 0.00 | 80% |
| Clean Ener-gy Fuels Corp. | CLNE | 2/2/21 | 3/2/21 | $2.63 | 13.66 | — | 0.00 | 419% |
| Orange S.A. | ORAN | 5/4/21 | 7/7/21 | $12.61 | 11.16 | Semi Annually | 0.61 | -7% |
| Unilever PLC | UL | 2/2/21 | 5/3/21 | $42.84 | 59.12 | Quarterly | 0.51 | 39% |
| ETFs | Symbol | Date Bought | Date Sold | Price Bought | Price Sold | Div Freq. | Dividends YTD | Gain/ Loss % |
| Technology Select Sector SPDR | XLK | 2/2/21 | 3/2/21 | $42.01 | $133.88 | Quarterly | 0.00 | 219% |
| Mutual Funds | Symbol | Date Bought | Date Sold | Price Bought | Price Sold | Div Freq. | Dividends YTD | Gain/ Loss % |
| T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth | TRBCX | 2/2/21 | 4/1/2021 | $90.40 | $169.55 | Yearly | $0.00 | 88% |
| Needham Small Cap Growth Retail Class | NESGX | 2/2/21 | 5/5/2021 | $14.61 | $27.28 | Yearly | $0.00 | 87% |
| Fidelity Select Industrials Portfolio | FCYIX | 3/2/21 | 6/2/21 | $37.95 | $37.66 | Quarterly | $0.73 | 1% |
| Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund, Inc | UTF | 2/2/21 | 6/24/21 | $37.95 | $27.85 | Monthly | $0.62 | -25% |
The More You Know | WSBS 821
In my Money Show presentations, I’m often asked about insider trading. Most of us remember the high-profile scandals, such as those perpetrated by Ivan Boesky in the ‘80s and Martha Stewart in the early 2000s, who reportedly sold stocks they knew were heading downward, before the information was made public, cementing their gains and leaving individual investors holding the bag when the shares fell.
But headlines, notwithstanding, the truth is that most insider trading—buying and selling of shares by company bigwigs—is legitimate trading of stock by company insiders—for a variety of reasons. And many of our contributors in the Wall Street’s Best Digest often note insider purchases and sales when they recommend a stock to our readers.
Theoretically, a company insider might be considered as anyone who knows material financial information about a company before it is publicized. But the SEC’s official definition of a company insider is: An officer or director of a public company or an individual or entity owning 10% or more of any class of a company’s shares.
The SEC—in a constant battle to keep corporate insiders on the straight and narrow—requires that insiders regularly report when they buy and sell company shares. The document used is called Form 4, and any changes in ownership have to be reported to the SEC within two days of the transaction. And, fortunately, there are scads of websites that gather this information and post it for our consumption—often for free.
In the past few years, the business of watching insider buys and sells has given rise to a whole industry of companies who do nothing but that. Newsletters, websites, and intricate trading models have emerged to advise investors on which insiders are buying and selling. The reason: People believe that insider trading activity often indicates the direction of a company’s stock price. After all, who could possibly be better informed as to the intimate details of a company’s fortune? Here are a few of my favorite sites for finding out the latest insider trades:
- insidertracking.com
- nasdaq.com/market-activity/search-ownership
- insider-monitor.com
Or you can just go to the SEC website: sec.gov, type in your company symbol, and you’ll immediately see all of its latest financial reports.
What it Means to the Individual Investor
When I analyze companies, I feel better about a company whose insiders express their belief and confidence in their products by owning a portion of the company’s stock. If they put their own money at risk, especially if they are buying at full market prices, rather than at discounted option-associated prices, it gives me an indication that they are optimistic about their company’s future. And if there is a sudden flurry of buying, especially large volume purchases, it draws my attention for further investigation, as it is generally a good indicator of coming good news.
Insider Selling Can be a Little Trickier
If a horde of insiders are dumping their company’s stock, that can often mean it’s time to head for the exits, as the selling activity might portend an adverse event that may negatively affect the stock. Of course, these insiders are not supposed to be selling ahead of such an event, but try as they might, the SEC can’t track them all, and some folks just think they can get away with it.
However, as I said earlier, there are lots of other, legitimate, reasons for insiders to sell their shares, including:
- Need the money for a large purchase
- Rebalancing their portfolio
- The exercising of options received in their compensation package
- Release of restrictions from an IPO
- The insider may be on his way out of the company
Consequently, it is important to attempt to find out exactly why insiders may be selling their stock. It could be important, or also may mean nothing.
But when I see millions of shares being sold by several different insiders, I take note, and so should you.
The next Wall Street’s Best Stocks issue will be published on September 7, 2021.
Cabot Wealth Network
Publishing independent investment advice since 1970.
President & CEO: Ed Coburn
Chief Investment Strategist: Timothy Lutts
Cabot Heritage Corporation, doing business as Cabot Wealth Network
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