Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES)

This recent IPO held up well during the recent market decline, and is in an expansive mode.


Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES)
from Cabot Top Ten Trader

Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES) is a classic cookie-cutter story that we believe can go very far in the years ahead. Think of it as a Chipotle Mexican Grill, but...

This recent IPO held up well during the recent market decline, and is in an expansive mode.

Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES)

from Cabot Top Ten Trader

Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES) is a classic cookie-cutter story that we believe can go very far in the years ahead. Think of it as a Chipotle Mexican Grill, but instead of burritos and tacos, Zoe’s serves up Mediterranean-inspired dishes with a little Southern flair—pitas, hummus, chicken sandwiches and kabobs, along with a ton of fresh fruits and veggies, using no fryers or microwaves during preparation. (Interestingly, women represent 70% of customer visits, and the average household income of each customer is north of $100,000!)

What we like about this story is that it’s large enough to be a proven concept—Zoe’s has 125 restaurants in 15 different states, and last year its top 20 performing locations came from seven different states, so this isn’t just a business with local appeal. But it also has huge growth potential; the firm will boost its store count by about 30 this year, and a similar number of openings in 2015 look reasonable. Long-term, the top brass thinks it can have 1,600 locations!

Throw in solid, mid- to high single-digit same-store sales growth, and success is just a matter of prudently expanding the store base over time. Sales growth is excellent (and accelerating), while earnings are near break-even as the firm puts its money into expansion.

ZOES just came public in April and ran to about 35 in July before forming what is now a 16-week, double-bottom base that corrected only 24% from high to low. And what’s really impressive is the action of the past few weeks—while the market has imploded, ZOES has ramped up six weeks in a row, albeit with lots of wild daily swings.

The only rub here is that the stock is very thinly traded (just $17 million per day), so if you decide to buy, keep it small and use a very loose leash.

Suggested Buy Range: 32-34

Suggested Loss Limit: 29.5-30.5

Cabot’s buy range is valid for two weeks.

Michael Cintolo, Cabot Top Ten Trader, www.cabot.net, 978-745-5532, October 20, 2014