“Vietnam’s economy is growing quickly, largely due to the country’s rising exports and low wages: its labour and production costs are as little as one-third of similar costs in China. Vietnam also has a large future labour pool: over 50% of its population of 85 million is under 25 years of age.
“The country’s high inflation rate is slowing, and could fall below 10% by the end of 2012. That should let the central bank cut interest rates, which could spur the economy to grow by more than 6% this year.
“Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) holds shares of Vietnamese companies or foreign firms that get a significant amount of their revenue from Vietnam. VNM was launched on August 11, 2009. Its expense ratio is 0.76%.
“The ETF’s top 10 holdings are Vietin Commercial Bank, 8.2%; Vincom Corp. (real estate), 7.9%; JSC Bank, 7.5%; Baoviet Holdings (Finance and insurance), 6.7%; PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemical, 5.4%; Premier Oil plc (a U.K. producer with a 53.1% stake in the huge Chim Sao oil project offshore southern Vietnam), 4.2%; Charoen Pokphand Foods (a Thailand-based food conglomerate), 4.1%; Oil & Natural Gas Corp. (an India-based oil and gas company), 4.0%; Gamuda Bhd (a Malaysia-based construction group); and Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group (real estate development), 3.8%.
“Market Vectors Vietnam ETF’s industry break-down is as follows: Financials, 44.4%; Energy, 25.4%; Industrials, 11.6%; Materials, 7.7%; Consumer Staples, 4.7%; Consumer Discretionary, 4.1%; and Utilities, 2.2%.
“The Market Vectors Vietnam ETF cuts its risk by investing part of its assets indirectly in Vietnam by purchasing shares of companies that are based outside the country but still do business there. That’s a better approach than adding thinly traded or illiquid shares of smaller Vietnamese companies.
“There are, however, a lot of other risk factors involved in investing in Vietnamese stocks. That’s true even if you invest through a fund like the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF.
“One of the biggest risks is politics. Vietnam’s periodic leadership changes can bring positive or negative changes for foreign investors. Vietnam is still in the very early stages of establishing the rule of law, in which property rights are respected. Corporate governance is in its infancy, and control of corruption is sporadic. When changes occur, you can bet that foreign investors will suffer more than the locals. You can also bet that local insiders will profit more than foreigners.
“Still, the long-term outlook for the Vietnamese economy is positive, and the country is making steady progress on political and economic reforms.
“Market Vectors Vietnam ETF is a buy for aggressive investors.”
- Patrick McKeough, Canadian Wealth Advisor, Mid-April 2012