Cabot Stock of the Month Issue: May 8, 2025

Market Review

While the volatility continues, the markets made some upward progress since our last issue, with all the broad indexes rising—although both Growth and Value stocks are still negative, year to date.

Sector-wise, all sectors— except for Energy (-6.02%), Technology (-7.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (-11.17%)—are in the black, led by Utilities (+5.10%), Consumer Staples (+3.66%), and Real Estate (+2.98%).

The Federal Reserve meets this week, but most economists expect no change in interest rates (for now). We’ll see how inflation is faring next week, which should give us some insight as to future Fed action and whether or not we can anticipate any rate relief this summer.

Meanwhile, the economy continues plugging along. The unemployment rate for April was unchanged at 4.2%. Home prices are beginning to level out, with price growth falling to 4.5%, less than the 4.8% forecast. And pending home sales rose higher than expected.

Some real estate gurus think buyers are getting tired of the sidelines and waiting for rates to fall, so they may be tiptoeing back into the market. Locally, here in Tennessee, we aren’t really seeing that yet—although my lenders tell me that interest in adjustable-rate mortgages is gaining traction. We’ll have to see how that affects sales in the near term. But with rates still high (relative to the last few years) and prices still growing—albeit at a slower rate—I don’t see a stellar year for real estate.

Consumers are still spending, but we don’t yet know if that’s due to buying in anticipation of coming price increases due to tariffs.

Right now, caution remains key. If these latest positive signs in the market continue, investors will gain confidence that the market is becoming more stable, and we can feel more comfortable with less cash.

In the meantime, I’m searching for bargains—like the company I’m recommending this month.

Feature Recommendation

The recent market shakeup has sent many industries and stocks to what I consider discounted levels. And while I don’t expect the volatility to drop off anytime soon, I want to begin thinking about picking up some of these companies while they are still good bargains.

With that in mind, I asked our Value expert, Chris Preston, Chief Analyst of Cabot Value Investor and Cabot Stock of the Week, for a recommendation from his portfolio.

He chose a company that has made great strides in the rapidly expanding electric vehicle industry. Here’s why he likes it:

BYD Company Ltd ADR (BYDDY): Revving Up Sales Around the World

“I love BYD (BYDDY). It’s been my top stock pick two years running! And it works as either a growth or value play. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns a position in it. Essentially, it’s like buying Tesla 10 years ago, or more. BYD has been growing like a weed since it switched to exclusively selling all electric cars and hybrids in 2021. The company’s sales instantly tripled in 2022; it is still growing at a healthy clip (36% sales growth in Q1 this year, while net profits doubled), and, more importantly, it’s starting to finally expand globally, with plants being built in Brazil, Hungary, Indonesia, Cambodia, Pakistan and Turkey.

“BYD already has Elon Musk shaking in his designer boots while doing 90% of its business just in China. Now it’s aiming for a global takeover but not—and this is now a feature, not a bug—in America, meaning it won’t be subject to Trump’s sky-high tariffs. It trades at just a fraction of TSLA shares, despite a big run-up (+75%) in the last year. I think it’s going to be one of the most recognizable brands in the world in a couple years.

“This year already, BYD has introduced a new self-driving technology called God’s Eye, inked an AI deal with news-making upstart Deep Seek, and rolled out the fastest EV charger ever—capable of charging an electric vehicle as fast as you can fill a normal vehicle at the gas station. Those have helped bring in new investors in recent months, and that’s before seeing their impact on the business. BYD is clicking on all cylinders right now.

“BYD isn’t a household name, at least not in the U.S. But it’s no spring chicken. Founded in 2003 by Wang Chuanfu, BYD (which stands for “Build Your Dreams”) has long been one of China’s top automakers. What really sent its sales into hyperdrive, however, was when it made the switch to all battery electric and hybrid plug-in vehicles in 2022. Revenues instantly tripled, going from $22.7 billion in 2020 (a record, despite the pandemic) to $63 billion in 2022. In 2024, revenues ballooned to $107 billion, or 25% growth, with another 24% growth expected in 2025.

“But there’s even greater upside. Right now, BYD does roughly 90% of its business in China, accounting for one-third of the country’s total sales of EVs and hybrids this year. The company is trying to change that, recently opening its full-assembly plant outside of China, with a new plant in Thailand starting deliveries. A plant in Uzbekistan puts together partially assembled vehicles. Mexico and Vietnam are possible targets as well. So that covers Europe, Southeast Asia and South America.

“You’ll notice there are no plans to expand into the U.S. While BYD does have a minor presence here—it makes electric buses in California—it’s mostly staying out of America to avoid high tariffs and political conflict, two factors that will only ratchet up under a second Trump term. Despite that, BYD is on the verge of becoming a global brand. The company is targeting 800,000 cars exported this year.

“So, while many Chinese stocks are saddled with the baggage of ongoing U.S.-China turmoil, BYD isn’t. Even without the U.S. market, it’s already the biggest EV and hybrid manufacturer in the world. And that’s from selling nine out of every 10 cars in China alone.

“The company long ago caught Warren Buffett’s attention. Berkshire Hathaway invested $230 million in BYD in 2008, when it was just a Chinese automaker with no real EV presence. Today, that investment has ballooned to $1.84 billion. Granted, Berkshire did trim its stake in BYD, from over 7% to just under 5%. But Buffett and company have been paring back positions across the board, so Berkshire’s reduced stake in BYD shouldn’t be a concern.

“And while BYDDY stock has fared well, it hasn’t grown as fast as the company. At 20x earnings estimates, BYDDY currently trades at less than a quarter of its five-year average forward P/E ratio (89.6). And its price-to-sales (1.24) ratio is about half the normal five-year ratio. As BYD continues to expand globally, look for its valuation to catch up with its industry-leading performance.

“BYDDY shares were off 6% this week despite another impressive earnings report last Friday. Profits for the Chinese EV maker exactly doubled in the first quarter, its best bottom-line performance in nearly two years, while sales improved 36.4% to 170.4 billion yuan. Market share in its home market of China increased to 13.6%, up from 12.1% in Q1 a year ago.

“After a huge recovery rally in the two weeks prior to the report, it’s possible the good news was already priced in, and some profit-takers pounced once the stock reached 104. I expect it will bounce back in the coming weeks. Coming on the heels of introducing a new God’s Eye self-driving car technology and rolling out a charger capable of charging up to 300 miles in just five minutes, Friday’s earnings report only adds to our bullishness on BYD. We maintain our 115 price target, which still seems conservative even after this week’s pullback. Take advantage of the dip if you don’t already own shares. BUY”

Chris mentioned that BYD is now a rival to Tesla, but what you may not realize is that its stock has outperformed Tesla’s for the past five years.

It also posted higher revenues than Tesla in 2024 to make the company the number one EV maker in the world, as you can see from the following chart, which was recently published in Investor’s Business Daily.

Additionally, the company is a leading global battery manufacturer and is rapidly expanding its operations around the world, as Chris noted. Its Blade batteries are a specialized form of lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) or lithium iron phosphate batteries. The company sells them to third-party EV makers, including Xiaomi, XPeng’s Mona subbrand, Nio’s Orvo brand and Toyota, in addition to Tesla.

In March, BYD introduced its 1,000-kilowatt superfast charging technology, with twice the charging power of Tesla’s V4 Supercharger.

In addition to manufacturing its batteries, the company also produces its own chips, which helps keep its costs competitive.

I think the upside for BYD is very attractive. Buy

About the Analyst: Chris Preston, Chief Analyst, Cabot Value Investor and Cabot Stock of the Week

Chris Preston is Cabot Wealth Network’s Editor-in-Chief and Chief Analyst of Cabot Stock of the Week and Cabot Value Investor.

Chris joined Cabot in 2015, where he previously served as staff analyst, web editor, and Chief Analyst of Cabot Wealth Daily, our free investment advisory, which in 2019 was named “Best Financial/Investing Newsletter or Ezine” at the SIPA (Specialized Information Publishers Association) Awards, with Chris at the helm.

Prior to joining Cabot, Chris was an analyst and assistant managing editor with Wyatt Investment Research. He has been an investment analyst for the last 14 years and a professional writer/editor for more than 20 years, picking up multiple writing awards along the way. His bylines have appeared in Forbes, The Money Show, Time Magazine, U.S. News and World Report and ESPN.com.

Chris lives in Vermont with his wife, two young kids and their golden retriever, Scout.

Chris has built an impressive portfolio in his newsletters and has a real knack for finding value and growth. Here is our interview:

Nancy: So far, the 2025 markets have been chaotic, with tariffs, DOGE cuts, talk of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, etc. Both Growth and Value stocks have taken hits.

It appears that once the markets settle down, we will have a lot of discounted stocks to choose from. With that possibility, in which sectors will you be looking to add?

Chris: I just added a travel-related stock in Cabot Value Investor, as tariffs have yet to slow down the U.S. travel industry, which set records last year and is on pace for new highs this year. And yet, most travel stocks are trading well below their pre-pandemic highs. Another couple quarters of negative GDP growth (i.e., recession) could certainly slow the travel boom, but for now, I’m going with the evidence in front of me.

That’s also why I’ve been heavier on overseas stocks in both advisories, adding exposure to Europe and China, whose markets have vastly outperformed U.S. stocks this year. So, on the growth side, I’m looking overseas. On the value side, there’s plenty of value in U.S. stocks, and travel and energy (oil prices are the lowest they’ve been in four years, which probably won’t last) are areas that I think could have the most upside.

Nancy: I saw that you recently recommended a European ETF to your subscribers in Cabot Stock of the Week. Would you please talk about why 1) you decided on Europe, and 2) why this ETF?

Chris: As I mentioned, Europe is appealing right now. European stocks are up 3.3% YTD vs. a 4% decline in U.S. stocks as institutional investors flock to the other side of the pond. Why? Tariff uncertainty weighing on U.S. stocks is a big part of it. But it’s also because interest rates are lower in Europe and the European Central Bank and Bank of England are projected to cut at faster rates this year than the Fed. That can change, of course, but in a market in which stock prices are more undervalued (the Stoxx Europe 600 trades at less than 14x forward earnings, vs. a forward P/E of more than 20 for the S&P), European stocks carry less risk right now.

With that in mind, as you mentioned, I just added an ETF with European exposure to Stock of the Week: the Stoxx Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense (EUAD). It’s a recent recommendation from Cabot Explorer Chief Analyst Carl Delfeld, and one that is a play on Europe’s expanding aerospace and defense sectors—the European Commission has proposed raising its defense spending by $840 billion. The fund has plenty of momentum and is up more than 48% YTD already.

Nancy: The only sectors that are showing YTD gains are Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Healthcare. Are you planning on adding any stocks from those areas in the near future?

Chris: I already recommend a few healthcare stocks that have performed well. People need healthcare regardless of what’s going on in the world, and as our colleague Tom Hutchinson is fond of saying, the aging of the population—with Baby Boomers reaching an age where they will require more healthcare—is an irreversible trend.

Consumer staples are also intriguing to me since they are typically pretty recession-and inflation-resistant, so those businesses shouldn’t crater in the event that either—or both—happen as a byproduct of tariffs. I will likely add a consumer staples stock to my Cabot Value Investor portfolio soon, as there’s plenty of value there.

I have been a bit gun-shy about delving into real estate due to the mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high. I added Toll Brothers (TOL) to Cabot Value Investor about nine months ago as the Fed seemed primed to start trimming rates at breakneck speeds. But then they slowed the pace, haven’t cut for months, and my timing on TOL wasn’t great. I could see getting back into that, or another homebuilder, later this year, but I’m waiting to see what the Fed will do in the next couple months.

Nancy: Which sectors do you believe are undervalued today?

Chris: I mentioned the travel sector. I think banks are undervalued right now, though the caution these days is understandable given the looming possibility of a recession. But if we can avoid one, banks in the U.S. remain underappreciated, having not fully recovered from the SVB/Signature Bank implosion a couple springs ago. Last quarter, all of the largest U.S. banks handily beat earnings estimates and demonstrated robust top- and bottom-line growth. Again, a deep recession could derail things, but I like the risk-reward. I also currently recommend a European bank in Stock of the Week, Banco Santander (SAN); it’s been one of my best performers.

Nancy: Continuing high mortgage rates and home prices are holding the housing market back right now, but there’s a possibility that both may decline later this year. If so, would you be interested in the REIT stocks?

Chris: Maybe, but I definitely think I’ve reached the “see it before I believe it” stage with housing stocks and REITs, given just how long mortgage rates have been sky-high. Now, if the Fed pivots in the back half of the year and floors the accelerator on rate cuts—with 3-4 cuts, say—and mortgage rates start to come down to at least the low 6% range like they did last September, then I could see myself trying to strike while the iron is hot. But I’ve been too early a couple times on REITs and homebuilders over the last couple years, and I’d rather be late this time, even if it means missing out on some of the early gains.

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Portfolio Updates

Tom Hutchinson, Chief Analyst of Cabot Dividend Investor, changed his rating on Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), saying, “Technology has not been a good place to be. QCOM had been holding up okay, better than some, because it wasn’t riding high before the market rolled over. But this month took no prisoners, and QCOM got whacked. It made a new 52-week low early this month and then had a very strong recovery over the rest of the month. I like the prospects for the mobile device chipmaker for the rest of this year and beyond. It is well-positioned ahead of the next phase of AI in mobile devices, and there could be a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones in the near future. Qualcomm reports earnings this week that should give a good sense of the current smartphone market. HOLD”

The company reported second-quarter earnings per share of $2.85, beating analysts’ estimates of $2.82. Revenues were $10.84 billion, also higher than the $10.66 billion predicted, due to a 12% year-over-year increase in handset chip sales.

The company issued future guidance of earnings per share around $2.70 and revenue of $10.3 billion at the midpoint. And management also said it would be boosting its dividend to $0.89 next month.

Qualcomm is now in the portfolio of 79 hedge funds, and analysts are forecasting an almost 40% upside for the stock. Continue to Hold for now.

Tom also updated his views on Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), noting, “Brookfield is up and off the bottom. Just like the rest of the market. BIP should have been set up for strong relative performance in the recent market volatility. The problem is that interest rates spiked higher at the same time, which is bad for an MLP because it increases borrowing costs and narrows profits. BIP is having a crummy year after two before this. But the business is sound. And yet, the stock isn’t delivering. It’s off the lows, but it’s still miles below the early 2022 high. BIP will continue to be held for now as the price is near the 52-week low and should have a bounce in a decent market. HOLD”

Brookfield reported earnings at the end of April. The REIT’s Funds from Operations (FFO) came in at $646 million or $0.82 per unit, up 12% normalized for foreign exchange impacts, with overall results increasing 5%, helped by the 50% rise in Data Segment FFO and the 13% increase in the Utilities Segment. Continue to Hold BIP.

As for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH), Tom had this to say, “The sorry performance continues. The company reported earnings earlier this month that missed estimates and lowered earnings guidance for 2025. The market wasn’t happy about it, and UNH crashed more than 22% in one day, the worst day for the stock since 1998. The vague management statements that followed didn’t help as the company cited higher medical costs from rising usage by older clients and “unanticipated changes” in its Optum subsidiary, the growth engine of the company.

“The stock has not bounced back from the carnage, even though the market has been booming over the past week. It could be that investors focused on stocks that may have a faster upside and neglected UNH. Because of the company’s high return on capital and the stellar longer-term track record of the stock, I’ll stick with it for a little longer. But the leash is short. HOLD”

UNH posted earnings of $7.20 per share, nine cents less than Wall Street had expected. It was the company’s first earnings miss since 2008, and investors did not like it. However, revenues did improve by 9.8%, to $109.6 billion.

The company reported that the miss was a result of “higher-than-anticipated medical costs, driven by a sharp increase in demand for physician and outpatient services, particularly among patients enrolled in government-backed Medicare plans.”

Medicare Advantage is responsible for many of the increased costs, but there are, perhaps, some positives ahead for that plan as the Trump administration just gave the insurers a $25 billion payout, with a promise to increase payment rates for Medicare Advantage next year.

Wall Street is still bullish on the stock, with 29 Buy and just 1 Sell rating(s).

During the fourth quarter, 150 hedge funds maintained their positions in UNH stock and reportedly expect it to rise by more than 40%. Continue to Hold for now.

McKesson Corporation (MCK) was also reviewed by Tom, who commented, “What tariff trouble? What treacherous market? MCK has just continued trending higher all year. It’s even up for the month of April and has returned 25% YTD in a treacherous market. It is also one of the very few portfolio stocks still trading near the high. The stock had been knocked down last summer and fall after the company reported supply chain issues with weight-loss drugs. But those problems are behind the company. MCK has resumed its old habit of slowly going higher and higher as it deals in a market that grows all by itself because of the aging population. It should continue to be a great holding in any market. BUY”

Institutions are big believers in McKesson, holding 88% of the company’s shares, with The Vanguard Group holding the largest portion (9.5%). The top 23 shareholders own about 50%, keeping ownership fairly diversified.

I agree with Tom and the institutions. Continue to Buy.

Tom changed his rating on Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) to Hold, saying, “This online banker has been bouncing around since late last summer. It had been near the high point of the recent range, but the market took it down earlier this month. Now, it’s moving higher again. If the economy deteriorates toward a recession or close to it, the stock will have more trouble. It deals primarily with auto loans, which are highly cyclical. However, a recession is still unlikely at this point. We’ll see how the economy looks over the rest of this year. But ALLY should have strong upside when the environment permits. HOLD”

The company posted first quarter 2025 earnings of 58 cents per share, significantly higher than analysts’ estimates of 43 cents, and rising 41.5% from the year-ago quarter.

However, net revenues were down 22.9%, to $1.54 billion, missing Wall Street’s estimates of $1.94 billion. Ally’s CFO Russ Hutchinson said, “The company took a $495 million hit on low-yielding securities to reinvest that money at better market rates, aimed at boosting net interest margin and reducing rate risk over time.” He also said the company took $58 million in weather-related losses, the “highest first-quarter total in Ally’s history.” Yet, Hutchinson said, “Ally is still on track to reach its mid-teens return on equity goal.”

As for guidance, revenue is estimated to rise by 11% per year for the next 3 years.

I agree with Tom’s assessment. Continue to Hold for now.

Michael Brush, Chief Analyst of Cabot Cannabis Investor, reviewed Curaleaf (CURLF), noting, “Curaleaf in April opened a medical cannabis store in Winter Park, Florida, and a hemp-derived product store in West Palm Beach, Florida, called Hemp Company by Curaleaf West Palm Beach. BUY”

The 10 pharmaceutical analysts from Canada believe CURLF is close to breakeven and think the company will become profitable, to the tune of some $70 million in 2027.

The company will report its first-quarter results on May 8. Analysts are forecasting a loss of $0.07 on revenues of $312.54 in revenues. Continue to Hold.

Michael also updated his views on Green Thumb (GTBIF), noting, “Green Thumb opened a RISE Dispensary in Ocala, Florida, in late April. BUY”

The company is expanding its dispensaries in Ohio and Nevada, and will announce its earnings on May 7. Wall Street is expecting EPS of $0.04 on revenues of $283.72 million. Continue to Hold.

Carl Delfeld, Chief Analyst of Cabot Explorer, reviewed International Business Machines (IBM), commenting, “IBM is a blue-chip artificial intelligence (AI) and India play with a nice dividend yield. Known as “Big Blue,” IBM now primarily helps businesses and governments manage their information technology in the cloud era. The stock sells at a discount to the S&P 500 multiple and the information technology sector’s forward earnings multiple. IBM has paid a dividend every quarter since 1916 and has had 29 consecutive years of dividend increases.

“International Business Machines shares were off 1% this week as the company announced plans to spend $150 billion over the next five years in the United States to accelerate its quantum computing initiative. This includes $30 billion for research and development and the balance for manufacturing capacity for mainframe and quantum computers. Buy a Half”

The company announced that it will invest $150 billion in America over the next five years, with more than $30 billion going to research and development in mainframe and quantum computers. Let’s continue to hold our shares.

Oberweis Micro-Cap Fund (OBMCX) continues to be a Hold in our portfolio.

Clif Droke, Chief Analyst of Cabot Turnaround Letter, updated our latest recommendation, Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI), saying, “Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) declared a quarterly dividend of 27 cents a share this week, which is in line with the previous dividend. The dividend, with a forward yield of 5.4%, is payable on May 28 to shareholders of record May 9. SIRI maintains a Buy rating in our portfolio.”

The company reported its first-quarter earnings, posting revenues of $2.07 billion with EPS of $0.60. Revenue met analyst estimates, but earnings per share (EPS) missed by 10%. The shares look undervalued at these levels. Continue to Buy.

Portfolio

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

ETF Strategies

Our ETF portfolio continues to outperform the general markets. And this month, to take advantage of the improving international arena, I would like to add the following ETF to our portfolio:

FTSE Developed Markets Vanguard (VEA):
3-Stars
Risk: Above Average, Aggressive
Returns: Average
Large Cap, Balanced

The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the FTSE Developed All Cap ex U.S. Index, a market-capitalization-weighted index that is made up of approximately 3,957 common stocks of large-, mid-, and small-cap companies located in Canada and the major markets of Europe and the Pacific region. The Advisor attempts to replicate the target index by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, holding each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index.

Trailing Returns

This ETF is considered aggressive.

Additionally, I’m changing our Watch List to include the following ETFs:

Davis Select Worldwide ETF (DWLD)

S&P 500 Low Vol Invesco ETF (SPLV)

ETF Spotlight

In this section of the newsletter, I highlight one of our portfolio ETFs, showcasing its largest holdings and past returns so that you can decide if the ETF fits into your investment strategy. Here is this month’s featured ETF:

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) is a 5-star-rated fund in which the index measures the performance of the large-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market, as determined by SPDJI. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its index and may invest up to 20% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents.

Top 10 Holdings

Returns

ETF Portfolio

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)
**Purchase price reflects a 3-for-1 stock split

“Electrifying” Growth for These Vehicles

In 2021, the global market for electric vehicles was $38.1 billion. That number is expected to grow 20.5% annually and reach $169.36 billion by 2030, according to Grand View Research.

Source: marketresearch.com

IEA reported that “almost 14 million new electric cars were registered globally in 2023, bringing their total number on the roads to 40 million.” And research firm Gartner is predicting that by the end of this year, there will be 85 million EVs on the road, including cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks. That’s stunning, isn’t it?

As you can see from the following graph from BloombergNEF, the Chinese EV passenger market is the largest (about 60%), with Europe (25%) in second place, due to the regional governments’ efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

EV’s are beginning to penetrate the globe. But the North American marketplace is forecast to grow the fastest as a result of increased research and development to produce new and more efficient technologies that will increase cruising ranges.

The leaders in the EV industry are:

• Continental AG (Germany)
• Hitachi Automotive Systems Ltd. (Japan)
• Tesla Inc. (US.)
• BYD Auto Co. Ltd. (China)
• Denso Corporation (Japan)
• Metric Mind Corporation (US.)
• Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (Japan)
• Allied Motion Technologies Inc. (US.)
• Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany)
• Siemens AG (Germany), among others

The future looks bright for BYDDY as it continues its global expansion while providing a lower-cost electric vehicle alternative to some of its competitors.

The shares of BYDDY are aggressive. Buy

The next Cabot Money Club Stock of the Month issue will be published on June 12, 2025.

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