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Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor Special Bulletin

Crista comments on Goldman Sachs’ and Bank of America’s strong second quarter earnings beats this morning, plus provides an earnings report calendar for our stocks through July.

Today’s news:

  • Goldman Sachs and Bank of America each reported strong second quarter earnings beats this morning.
  • Earnings Report Comments
  • Earnings report calendar

Bank of America Tops All Analysts’ Quarterly Earnings Estimates

Bank of America (BAC – yield 2.0%) reported second-quarter earnings per share of $0.46 this morning when the market was expecting $0.43. Analysts’ estimates ranged between 41 and 45 cents. All business segments, except for bond trading, reported strong results. Results were boosted by recent Fed rate hikes, which contributed to BAC’s net interest income, a key source of profit. Here’s the earnings press release.

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BAC is an undervalued large-cap bank with strong earnings growth. I intend on holding BAC for many months. The stock has short-term upside price resistance at 25.5, which it could easily surpass this year, possibly even this month. Strong Buy.

Goldman Sachs Tops All Analysts’ Quarterly Earnings Estimates

Goldman Sachs Group (GS – yield 1.3%) reported second-quarter diluted earnings per share of $3.95 this morning. The consensus estimate was $3.39, and the full range of analysts’ estimates was $3.10 to $3.76. Quarterly revenue was $7.89 billion vs. the $7.52 billion consensus estimate. Here’s the earnings press release.

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Most revenue areas performed extremely well, including M&A, underwriting, equity and investment management. Fixed income revenue has been way down this year, and that should come as no surprise to investment professionals, although you can expect news headlines to harp on that fact, making the quarter sound unsuccessful.

As I’ve mentioned in recent months, the Federal Reserve’s brand new, never-before-implemented plan to pare back its balance sheet will likely cause volatility in the Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities markets. Companies like Goldman Sachs tend to do a lot of fixed income trading during volatile markets. I therefore expect Goldman’s 2017 revenue downturn in the fixed income area to have been temporary.

Goldman spent $1.47 billion on share repurchases during the second quarter. The next quarterly dividend will be $0.75 per share, which was last increased from $0.65 upon the April 18 dividend declaration.

As of last night, I was planning to sell GS when it retraces its March 2017 high above 250, where it would still be slightly undervalued. Based on this morning’s strong earnings results, I expect analysts to increase their full-year 2017 earnings estimates for Goldman. I’m more interested in the 2018 number, though, as I assess the EPS growth, PE and price chart in determining whether to replace GS with a stock that has stronger EPS growth prospects, such as KeyCorp (KEY). For now, hold onto GS, and I’ll provide updates as it approaches 250. I’m still inclined to sell & replace. Hold.

Crista’s Earnings Report Comments

I don’t find quarterly comparisons to year-ago numbers to be relevant, which is why I rarely mention them. I find comparisons between current quarter business results and analysts’ estimates to be far more indicative of quarterly successes or failures.

And again, I know that I harp on this, but always keep in mind that it is the news media’s job to find a negative number in an earnings report and pounce on it in their headlines. That’s because they need to scare you into coming back to their news source for guidance on how to handle the crisis-du-jour. Remember that investment professionals make decisions based on ALL of the balance sheet numbers, and not just the one number that the media was able to portray as a catastrophe. Investment professionals do not get their financial information from the news media.

Additional Quarterly Earnings Reports due through the end of July

July 20 am: Blackstone Group (B X)

July 25 am: PulteGroup (PHM)
July 25 pm: Ameriprise Financial (AMP) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

July 26 pm: ExxonMobil (XOM), Legg Mason (LM), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and XL Group (XL)

July 27 am: Invesco (IVZ)

July 27 pm: Mattel (MAT)