Thermon Group Holdings (THR) moves to Hold; reiterate Buy on Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)
Thermon Group Reports Earnings Miss and Revenue Beat
Thermon Group Holdings (THR), a producer of engineered thermal solutions, reported fourth quarter results yesterday morning (March year-end). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.10 when analysts expected $0.13. Revenue was $67.6 million vs. the consensus estimate of $66.2 million. The company expects fiscal 2018 revenue to be flat to slightly down from 2017 levels. The quarterly backlog increased 32% to $107 million.
The CEO cited higher labor costs and an unfavorable product mix as contributing to lower gross margins vs. the previous quarter.
The company’s 2017 fiscal year was expected to achieve lower net income than in 2016. I recommended THR based upon the big earnings rebound that is expected in fiscal 2018 and 2019. Full-year 2017 EPS came in at $0.43. EPS are expected to rise to $0.62 and $0.87 in the next two years, reflecting EPS growth rates of 44% and 40%. With the share price at $18.29, that gives THR P/E’s of 29.5 and 21.0 in fiscal 2018 and 2019. The stock is distinctly undervalued.
THR fell 9% yesterday on news of the quarterly earnings miss, toward the bottom of its 13-month trading range, between 18 and 21. At this point, it’s a good sign that despite the share price drop, the stock stayed within its trading range. If earnings estimates remain relatively unchanged, I would expect the stock to rebound towards 21, rest again, and then to break past 21 at some point in the coming months.
I need to see a couple more days of price action, and to give analysts a couple more days to change their earnings estimates (if needed), before I can give a strong opinion on how to proceed with the stock. For now, I’m moving THR from Strong Buy to Hold. It’s conceivable that I could move it back to Strong Buy as early as next week, but I want to assess those aforementioned factors first. Hold.
U.S. Government Investigation Gives Boost to Steel Stocks
Share prices of steel stocks had big run-ups in the fall of 2016, then declined this year. Share prices then stabilized, and tentatively began rebounding in recent weeks. It’s fairly normal to see big pull-backs after big price run-ups, although it’s certainly not pleasant to experience them.
This week, the U.S. government announced that it began a Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of steel imports. In English, that means that the new heads of trade and commerce are following through on President Trump’s campaign promise to get tough on trade abuses.
The steel industry has been especially hard hit by illegal dumping (artificially low pricing) by foreign producers. For example, because the Chinese government subsidizes steel companies, those companies do not have to earn a profit in order to stay in business. They can sell their steel at whatever price they want, purposely undercutting U.S. steel prices in order to gain market share. U.S. steel companies cannot effectively fight back, because they are required to aim for profitability in order to stay in business. Steel production in the U.S. fell 27% in 2015, largely due to currency manipulation and trade cheating on the part of Asian countries. (For more information, see my September 2016 article “TPP Portends Death to U.S Steel Industry”.)
The essential question for the Section 232 investigation is whether low prices on steel imports are harming the steel industry enough that the U.S. government needs to attempt to put a stop to the unfair trade practices.
When the President and economists talk about unfair trade practices, it is not a discussion about tariffs, as the news media so often mentions in brief sound bites. It’s a discussion about seriously imbalanced product pricing that’s manipulated by currency devaluations, skirting agreed-upon rules of origin, BAT taxes, VAT taxes, slave labor, government subsidies and more. (FYI—Proposing remedies to unfair trade practices was a significant part of my work as a trade advocate in Washington D.C., in 2015 and 2016.)
The fledgling rebound in steel stock prices just got a boost by news of the Section 232 investigation. I’d like to reiterate my Buy recommendation on Schnitzer Steel (SCHN). If you are contemplating other steel stocks, send me a brief email and I’ll be happy to answer questions about them.