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Turnaround Letter
Out-of-Favor Stocks with Real Value

December 29, 2021

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the January 2022 issue.

This issue includes our Top Five Stocks for 2022, our annual market review and outlook for 2022, as well as our update on the bankruptcy and high-yield bond markets.

Our featured recommendation this month is Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners Ltd (BAMR). This recent spin-off has received little market attention yet offers considerable long term potential.

We note our recent ratings change that moved shares of GCP Applied Technologies (GCP) to a Sell with a +77% total return.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.

I’m best reachable at Bruce@CabotWealth.com. I’ll do my best to respond as quickly as possible.

Attractive Turnaround Stocks

Top Five Stocks for 2022
At the end of each year, the Cabot Turnaround Letter looks through its portfolio of recommended stocks to identify the “Top Five” for the coming year. We are reluctant to select only five, as we like all of our 35 current recommendations (otherwise they wouldn’t be on the roster). However, these five stocks have what we believe are the most favorable combinations of risk/reward and timeliness. As always, we encourage investors to hold a diversified portfolio of turnaround stocks, as individual names can carry high risk.

In previous years, our picks have often produced strong returns. This past year’s crop was bountiful, generating an average return of 115%, compared to the S&P500’s return of 27%1. Leading the list was Signet Jewelers (SIG), whose impressive turnaround drove the shares up 289% until we moved the shares to a Sell in early November at just over $104. Meredith Corporation’s (MDP) acquisition in October at an attractive premium led to a 208% gain. Beleaguered bank Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) rebounded with a 67% return. All of these strong gains helped offset positive but lackluster returns from Conduent (CNDT) and Newell Corporation (NWL), at +7% and +4%, respectively.

This year’s Top Five list includes a range of industries and situations, including two deep value turnarounds (CS and DRQ), a mid-stage turnaround afflicted by a new but temporary problem (LW), an activist-driven turnaround (THS) and a mid-stage tech turnaround with considerable remaining upside potential (NOK). We anticipate that our list will receive media coverage in the near future, as it usually does. However, as a loyal subscriber, it is only fair that you see the list first.

Credit Suisse (CS) – One of the major Swiss banks, Credit Suisse never fully recovered from the global financial crisis of over a decade ago. Weak management and efforts to compete against stronger and better-managed competitors have produced only sub-par profits, marred by a loose risk-control culture that led to embarrassing losses like the Archegos trading debacle and the Greensill Capital collapse. Its spying scandal further tainted its reputation. These problems explain much of why its shares trade at a low 53% of tangible book value. Yet past is not necessarily prologue, and major changes are underway at Credit Suisse. New chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who recently joined the bank following his turnaround of similarly-plagued Lloyds Bank, is implementing a retrench-and-rebuild strategy. This includes redirecting the bank toward its more valuable and stable Swiss banking and global investment management operations, exiting non-core businesses and markets, simplifying its business model, removing weak management, tightening its risk-control processes, writing off losses and cutting expenses. The bank is producing profits and is backed by robust capital, providing it with the time to implement the necessary changes. While there is still considerable risk, there is also considerable potential return.

Dril-Quip (DRQ) – This company is a major supplier of subsea equipment for the offshore oil and natural gas industry. Weak conditions followed the fall-off in commodity prices since mid-2014, and currently volatile prices, investors’ push for free cash production rather than energy production, and heightened focus on climate concerns have driven the industry into a deep depression. Dril-Quip shares are down 90% from their all-time high and trade at 13-year lows.

However, even in these weak conditions Dril-Quip still generates positive EBITDA and free cash flow. New orders have troughed and look poised to turn upward. A major appeal is the company’s debt-free balance sheet that holds $375 million in cash – equal to more than half its market capitalization. The management has resumed its share repurchase program, including buying back 1% of shares outstanding in October. We think the company is capable of being much more aggressive, perhaps using $200 million of its cash to buy back nearly a third of its shares without impairing its balance sheet. With the company valued at 8.2x estimated 2022 EBITDA, there is real value for investors.

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) – Lamb Weston is the largest producer of frozen potato products in North America and the second largest in the world. Selling french fries to fast-food restaurants (McDonald’s is a 10% customer) is a major part of its business. About 80% of its revenues are produced in the United States. Lamb-Weston’s revenues fell sharply when restaurants and other food service venues closed during the pandemic. While sales have essentially recovered, profits have been sharply crimped recently due to rising potato and other commodity costs, transportation costs, labor shortages and other pressures, which are likely to weigh on results for a few more quarters. Also, Lamb will have elevated capital spending for the next two years as it builds new processing plants. However, the company is well-managed, has a strong market position, generates healthy profits and cash flow, is conservatively financed, and should eventually resolve its cost problems. Over time, Lamb should be able to recover its higher costs, and also reap higher profits from its new facilities. The shares have slipped 25% from their recent high on the weak near-term outlook, and trade at a discounted 10.5x post-recovery EBITDA. Management announced a 4% dividend increase and boosted their buyback program by $250 million to take advantage of the low share price.

Nokia (NOK) – Initially recommended by the Cabot Turnaround Letter in 2015, Nokia struggled for years to remain competitive in its core market of selling equipment to telecom network operators. Its early choice of using field programmable chips, as opposed to factory programmed chips, set back its 5G efforts by years. The result: weak revenues, thin margins, a bloated and misdirected expense base, and a leveraged balance sheet.

However, the arrival of new CEO Pekka Lundmark (March 2020) has brought the company back into the game. His strategy to invest heavily in research and development has restored Nokia’s technology competitiveness, which has helped the company return to positive revenue growth. Better products and better spending control have boosted profit margins to 11%, attaining Lundmark’s targeted range of 10-13%. Nokia is generating sizeable free cash flow and now has €4.3 billion more cash than debt. Lundmark is eliminating bad business practices like its selling of its receivables – a low-quality and expensive way to generate cash flow. We anticipate that Nokia will restore its dividend and announce a share buyback program in 2022. Despite its progress and the likely continued ramp-up of 5G spending, investors continue to give Nokia little credit.

“Top Five” Stocks for 2022
CompanySymbolRecent
Price
% Chg Vs 52-Wk HighMarket
Cap $Bil.
EV/ EBITDA*Dividend
Yield (%)
Credit SuisseCS9.69-3525.80.52.3
Dril-QuipDRQ19.4-520.78.20
Lamb Weston HoldingsLW61.75-299.110.51.6
Nokia CorporationNOK6.19-3735.37.90
TreeHouse FoodsTHS39.53-292.29.60

Closing prices on December 23, 2021.
* Enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Based on consensus estimates for calendar years ending in 2022. Credit Suisse multiple is price/tangible book value.
Sources: Company releases, Sentieo, S&P Capital IQ and Cabot Turnaround Letter analysis.
Disclosure: The chief analyst personally owns shares of all Cabot Turnaround Letter recommended stocks, including the stocks mentioned in this article.

TreeHouse Foods (THS) – As a major contract producer of private label foods, TreeHouse has struggled with poor execution and elevated debt resulting from its acquisition-driven strategy. While the private label food industry has continued to grow, TreeHouse’s results have continued to sag. Efforts starting in 2016 to improve its inefficient operations, including divestitures and the replacement of the original CEO in March 2018, have proven only modestly effective. The shares are 60% below the 2016 peak, and now trade only modestly above the 2005 spin-off price. Nevertheless, the company remains profitable and generates reasonable free cash flow. While third quarter results were dreary, as expected, demand for TreeHouse’s products is ahead of its production ability, and consumers appear to be incrementally shifting back to the lower-priced store brands that TreeHouse produces. Also, the margin squeeze from higher costs will increasingly be offset by better pricing. Critical to our thesis, respected activist investor JANA Partners has steadily built a stake, now at 9.2%, and holds two board seats. Their standstill agreement expired on December 15, so it is likely that JANA will step-up its pressure to either sell the company or change its strategy and leadership. Trading at only 9.6x estimated 2022 EBITDA, the shares offer considerable upside.

  1. Returns are price-only returns from December 18, 2020 to December 23, 2021.

2022 Market Outlook
There is no doubting the immense power of the current bull market in stocks. This year, the S&P500 has generated a total return of 28%, followed closely by the 22% total return of the Nasdaq Composite. Over the past five years, the gains have been nothing short of awe-inspiring: 18% annualized returns for the S&P 500 and 25% for the Nasdaq. Few five-year periods in history can match this performance.

Similarly, there can be no doubting the immense power of fiscal and monetary stimulus to invigorate the economy and driving asset prices higher. The federal government has disbursed copious amounts of cash into the economy, indicated by the $2.8 trillion budget deficit, equal to just over 12% of GDP, during its fiscal year ending on September 30. Compared to a typical 4% or so deficit, the extraordinary largess turbocharged consumers’ spending, which boosted company revenues and profits. No slouch in the stimulus department, the Fed maintained its zero-interest rate policy and continued its $120 billion/month bond buying program, which served to backstop downside risk while encouraging confident stock-buying that at times crept well into speculative territory.

Within the S&P500, the largest 50 largest stocks (by market cap) gained an average of 28%, while the 50 smallest produced an average return of only 11%. However, broad strength in the middle of the market allowed the equal-weighted S&P500 return to match the cap-weighted S&P500 return. For the most part, the average stock fully participated in the market’s gains for the year. However, since the end of August, the gains have been concentrated at the top: the 50 largest stocks gained 6% while the 50 smallest fell 5%. The ten largest gained 11%. As this latter group comprises nearly a third of the S&P 500 index by weight, it had a disproportionate effect on the overall index’s return, helping the index reach a new record high.

Growth stocks edged value stocks (27% vs 23%), but this was essentially a tie compared to growth’s 37% to 2% performance dominance last year. Returns among the major sectors ranged from 34% for Tech and Financial stocks to 16% for Consumer Staples stocks. The minor sectors showed the strongest gains, with Energy stocks surging to return 53% and Real Estate stocks rising to produce a 41% return. Utilities generated a very respectable 15% return. Small cap stocks returned 15%, but beneath the surface, the value/growth divergence was enormous, in favor of value at 27% vs growth at 3%. Deep losses in biotech and other speculative stocks weighed on small cap growth’s performance. One nugget we uncovered in our research was that Apple’s market value is greater than that of the entire Russell 2000 Index.

Outside of the United States, returns were healthy but trailed the S&P 500. The MSCI EAFE index of developed country markets produced a 15% gain (local returns), as strength in France (26%) and smaller markets was weighed down by Germany and Japan (both gained 11%). Due to the strength of the dollar (up 7%), the EAFE return in dollar terms was a modest 8%. Emerging market returns were dismal, with the MSCI EM index falling 3% (local), led by a sharp decline in China (-23%).

Fixed income returns were generally negative as rising interest rates nudged down bond prices. Investment grade corporate bonds produced a loss (-1.9%). High yield bonds, which trade more like stocks, produced a positive 5.1% total return. Commodity prices were generally strong, with oil rising 52% to $74/barrel and copper increasing 25%, while gold slipped 5% to $1,810/ounce.

Keeping in mind our favorite quote about forecasts, spoken by the linguistically creative baseball legend Yogi Berra, “predictions are difficult, especially about the future,” let’s review our 2021 outlook, then turn to outlook.

The robust stock market in 2021 sharply surpassed our 7% total return forecast. Earnings growth of about 22% was priced into the market but actual earnings growth surged to 45%, propelling the market’s upward march. As we anticipated, value stocks performed much better than a year ago relative to growth stocks, but still lagged so we score this as a “near miss,” although the vast small cap value outperformance earned a “save.” We expected a modest uptick in inflation, which was shy of the 6.8% pace, earning a “miss”. Making accurate predictions is remarkably difficult, and we proved Yogi Berra right once again.

However, our view that markets would be increasingly influenced by the “Two Easts” including Washington (east coast) and China (far east) was spot-on. From the overwhelming power of federal stimulus to China’s heightened controls on its public companies both domestically and in the United States, the Two Easts cast their shadows over the markets. Our concerns about speculation in IPOs, SPACs, EV stocks, Bitcoin and other profit-free entities were also on the mark.

Our outlook for 2022 is for a modest 5% return for the S&P500. The previous fiscal tailwind looks to be greatly diminished, while the Fed’s easy monetary policy appears poised to reverse as inflation will likely remain well-above its 2% target rate. We see perhaps 10% earnings growth being partly offset by multiple compression. Excessive growth stock valuations will likely be pulled down by rising interest rates, allowing value stocks to shine. Bonds could have a difficult year.

The Two Easts will likely exert an even greater influence on markets in 2022. In addition to reductions in economic stimulus coming out of Washington, we see increased regulations weighing on business activity. We expect China to continue to press its broad initiatives. We don’t anticipate any armed conflicts, but geopolitical tensions will almost certainly move higher. Outside of the Two Easts, we see Covid having a seasonal, but diminished, effect on the economy.

Stock markets won’t produce 28% returns every year, and a bear market is inevitable at some point. As patient and selective value investors, we are market-agnostic, looking for the best contrarian ideas on offer. The relentless pace of innovation and change means better lives for people around the world. But some management teams won’t be able to keep up. Investors will give up on these companies, providing an evergreen source of attractive turnaround opportunities. For contrarian investors, the future looks bright.

Bankruptcies and High Yield Bonds: Highly Unappealing
While bankruptcies surged in 2020 to levels not seen since the financial crisis, they almost vanished in 2021. Only 22 public companies have filed for bankruptcy (a record low) with pre-filing assets totaling only $25 billion (also a record low).

The dearth of failures has been driven by three powerful forces. First, the booming economy, with nominal GDP growth running at a 10+% pace, has lifted the profits of previously struggling companies. Notably, higher oil and natural gas prices have sharply pared the number of bankruptcies, even though about half of this year’s bankruptcies (by assets) occurred in the energy industry – a follow-on effect of last year’s weak commodity prices.

Second, exceptionally low interest rates have eased the burden of elevated debt. Current high yield interest rates are averaging about 4.49%, well-below the 6% to 8% rates of recent years.

And, institutional and retail investors’ voracious appetite for income-producing assets has spurred lending to marginally profitable companies that previously would have filed for bankruptcy as their financing dried up. Much of this year’s new issuances have been used to refinance existing debts. The emergence of private credit funds (the debt-oriented siblings of private equity) has amplified the demand for below-investment grade credits. These lenders have higher risk tolerances than the commercial banks which increasingly are absent from the high yield lending market.

For investors concentrating in bankrupt securities, the paucity of bankruptcies has been exacerbated by another trend. Traditionally, when companies emerged from bankruptcy, their bonds and notes would generally be available for trading. But, post-bankruptcy debt is increasingly being converted to equity, while the remaining debt is being retained by long-term holders with little interest in trading. This trend has contributed to the recent closure of several notable distressed debt-focused hedge funds, including Anchorage Capital with $7.4 billion in assets under management.

Largest Bankruptcies of 20211
CompanyAssets2
($Million)
Filing
Date
Seadrill Ltd7,29110-Feb
Washington Prime Group4,02913-Jun
GTT Communications2,80031-Oct
Ferrellgas Partners LP1,66811-Jan
Luckin Coffee1,2425-Feb
JustEnergy Group1,0929-Mar
Riverbed Technology1,00016-Nov
Carlson Travel1,00011-Nov
Grupo Posadas94626-Oct
HighPoint Resources83714-Mar

1. Through 12/16/21.
2. Assets at period-end prior to filing. Excludes financial companies.
Source: BankruptcyData.com

In this environment, we see limited prospects for generating profits from high yield securities. Interest rates need to remain low, which would require a rapid fall-off in the currently elevated inflation rate. This year’s 0.5% high yield default rate needs to remain at this rock-bottom level rather than revert to the 3-4% rate seen in a typical slowdown or as high as 12% in recessions. And the stock market probably needs to remain buoyant to support the equity component of high yield bonds. Checking all of these boxes consistently over the next few years seems like a tall order – with little margin for error.

Public Bankruptcies: 2012-2021
YearNumber
of Companies
Assets1
($Million)
20128044,401
20136733,108
20145471,918
20157976,903
201699104,665
201771106,932
20185852,026
201964150,864
2020110275,334
202122225,303

1. Aggregate of total pre-filing assets of all publicly-traded companies filing for Chapter 11, 7, or 15 (excluding financial companies).
2. Through 12/16/21.
Source: BankruptcyData.com

On the contrary, we see rising interest rates combined with a tapering of economic growth, as both fiscal and monetary policies become less accommodative. These conditions would likely lead to restricted access to credit for leveraged companies and an increase in defaults. High yield bonds look poised to enter the unfavorable part of the credit cycle with very limited current appeal.

New Recommendations, Updates and Performance

RecommendationS

Purchase Recommendation: Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners Ltd (BAMR)

Brookfield Asset Management
Reinsurance Partners Ltd (BAMR)
3 Front Street, 5th Floor
Hamilton HM 12 Bermuda
(416) 956-5141
bamr.brookfield.com

Symbol: BAMR
Market Cap: $1.7 Billion
Category: Mid Cap
Business: Reinsurance
Revenues (2021e):$2.7 Billion
Earnings (2021e):$0.5 Million
11/26/21 Price:61.32
52-Week Range: 47.98-85.00
Dividend Yield: 0.9%
Price target: 93

bamr-since-2021.png

Background
Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners Ltd (BAM Re) provides reinsurance to private pension plans and life insurance companies. BAM Re is a new company, created within Toronto, Canada-based Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) in 2020, which was partly spun out to shareholders in June 2021. Public shareholders own approximately 90% of the Class A shares, while BAM retains a partial economic interest.

Private pension plans accumulate assets when sponsoring companies and their employees make contributions into the plan. These assets are then invested to allow the plans to meet future payout obligations. BAM Re’s strategy is to acquire the assets and future contributions of pension plans, then invest these funds in attractive public and private securities. At the same time, they assume the liabilities and obligations to make all future required payments to plan participants. BAM Re’s goal is to generate long-term returns on the plan assets that exceed the build-up of the long-term payout obligations. Over time, excess returns can build up considerable value for shareholders. This is the same basic mechanism that built Berkshire Hathaway. Life insurance and annuities work the same way – an accumulation of assets that need to be invested to meet future liabilities.

As a new company with a relatively small market capitalization, in an industry that is considered bland compared to cloud computing, electric vehicles and others, as well as IPOs, SPACs, NFTs and similar speculative securities, BAM Re has received little market attention. Few if any Wall Street firms provide research coverage. The share price is essentially unchanged from the spin-off date closing price of 62.10.

Analysis
BAM Re shares offer considerable appeal. The company has high-quality roots – Brookfield Asset Management is a major investment firm with $600 billion in assets under management and a history dating back over 100 years. It is often favorably compared to Berkshire Hathaway due to its highly-successful value oriented investment philosophy. In 2019, BAM acquired a controlling stake in Oaktree Capital Management – we have a very high regard for Oaktree and believe they would combine only with a firm that shared its strong ethics, long-term investment philosophy, value-oriented mindset and impressive investment track record. We believe BAM Re retains these same traits. Long-time Brookfield chairman Bruce Flatt owns nearly 4% of BAM Re, indicating that the company has the attention and support of its sponsor.

The company’s opportunities appear sizeable. The annuities and life insurance industry has over $13 trillion in assets and is growing at 4% annually. The targeted Canadian pension plan market holds nearly $1.4 trillion in assets. BAM Re may also make selective insurance company investments or acquisitions.

BAM Re is tapping into an emerging trend in the insurance industry. Traditional insurers, including corporations with large employee pension plans, are facing structural challenges from low interest rates, which provide little of the returns necessary to fund their future insurance obligations. Also, providing annuities and life insurance is capital-intensive – many companies are looking to better utilize their scarce capital by offloading these obligations. Specialists like BAM Re have access to higher-return investments and lower-cost capital, making it a natural buyer. With sellers potentially under capital pressure, BAM Re may be able to make acquisitions at a discount.

Since its spin-off, BAM Re has completed two major transactions. The company acquired American National Insurance in August for $5.1 billion, and entered into a transaction to reinsure up to $10 billion of annuities and related products of the American Equity Investment Life Insurance Company. It has also closed 11 pension risk transfer transactions totaling $600 million of premiums. We anticipate a reasonably high level of transaction activity over the coming years.

BAM Re has numerous capable competitors to its strategy, but we believe it has considerable advantages. It has a management team with extensive experience and skill, brings a solid capital base, and will tap into BAM’s impressive investment capabilities. Also, it can access as much as $2 billion of capital from BAM to fund future growth. BAM’s strong position in Canada provides it with considerable advantages in the Canadian pension market.

Placing a value on BAM Re shares is less straightforward than a typical investment, given the company’s early stage of development. The 1.3x price/tangible book value suggests that investors are placing little value on its future development. The company currently pays a $0.13/share quarterly dividend, providing a modest 0.85% yield, but we anticipate that this dividend will grow over time.

An investment in BAM Re carries risks, notably the uncertainty from its limited operating history and from its exposure to potentially volatile capital markets. The company has complex operations and financials, reducing the clarity that we typically prefer. Also, BAMR shares have relatively limited trading volume. However, we believe the overall attractiveness of the company and its equity more than outweigh these risks. Relatively unknown BAM Re offers considerable upside potential for long-term investors.

We recommend the purchase of Brookfield Asset Management Reinsurance Partners shares (BAMR) with a 93 price target.

Sell Recommendation
On December 16, we moved shares of GCP Applied Technologies (GCP) to a SELL. Earlier in the month, the company announced a deal to be acquired by French construction materials company St. Gobain for $32/share in cash. This price was 14% above our $28 price target. Activist investor Starboard Value’s sizeable ownership stake and oversight of GCP drove the auction process and successful sale.

As the deal is a definitive agreement with unanimous approval from both company boards of directors, is all-cash, and readily financed by St. Gobain, there was little risk in the share price. Waiting for a possible over-bid by other buyers was essentially a free option. However, after a reasonable waiting period, it appears that there will be no other bids.

The GCP investment produced a total return of +77% since our July 2020 initial Buy recommendation.

You can find more details by visiting our website at cabotwealth.com.

Disclosure: The chief analyst of the Cabot Turnaround Letter personally holds shares of every company on the Current Recommendations List. The chief analyst may purchase securities discussed in the “Purchase Recommendation” section or sell securities discussed in the “Sell Recommendation” section but not before the fourth day after the recommendation has been emailed to subscribers. However, the chief analyst may purchase or sell securities mentioned in other parts of the Cabot Turnaround Letter at any time.

Performance

The following tables show the performance of all our currently active recommendations, plus recently closed out recommendations. For additional details, please visit cabotwealth.com.

Large Cap1 (over $10 billion) Current Recommendations

RecommendationSymbolRec.
Issue
Price at
Rec.
12/23/21Total
Return (3)
Current
Yield
Current
Status (2)
General ElectricGEJul 2007304.9694.00-450.3%Buy (160)
Royal Dutch Shell plcRDS/BJan 201569.9543.81-54.4%Buy (53)
Nokia CorporationNOKMar 20158.026.19-110%Buy (12)
Macy’sMJul 201633.6125.14-72.4%HOLD
Credit Suisse Group AGCSJun 201714.489.69-272.3%Buy (24)
Toshiba CorporationTOSYYNov 201714.4920.20+483.2%Buy (28)
Holcim Ltd.HCMLYApr 201810.929.96+64.4%Buy (16)
Newell BrandsNWLJun 201824.7821.41-14.3%Buy (39)
Vodafone Group plcVODDec 201821.2415.22-147.2%Buy (32)
Kraft HeinzKHCJun 201928.6835.25+384.5%Buy (45)
Molson CoorsTAPJul 201954.9645.59-123.0%Buy (69)
Berkshire HathawayBRK/BApr 2020183.18294.49+610%HOLD
Wells Fargo & CompanyWFCJun 202027.2248.36+811.7%Buy (55)
Baker Hughes CompanyBKRSep 202014.5324.22+743.0%Buy (26)
Western Digital CorporationWDCOct 202038.4761.20+590%Buy (78)
Altria GroupMOMar 202143.8046.70+157.4%Buy (66)
Elanco Animal HealthELANApr 202127.8528.88+40%Buy (44)
Walgreens Boots AllianceWBAAug 202146.5350.48+113.8%Buy (70)

Mid Cap1 ($1 billion - $10 billion) Current Recommendations

RecommendationSymbolRec.
Issue
Price at
Rec.
12/23/21Total
Return (3)
Current
Yield
Current
Status (2)
MattelMATMay 201528.4320.69-150%Buy (38)
ConduentCNDTFeb 201714.965.36-640%Buy (9)
Adient plcADNTOct 201839.7746.87+190%Buy (55)
Lamb Weston HoldingsLWMay 202061.3661.75+31.5%Buy (85)
GCP Applied TechnologiesGCPJul 202017.9631.82*+77*0%SELL*
Xerox HoldingsXRXDec 202021.9122.45+74.5%Buy (33)
Ironwood PharmaceuticalsIRWDJan 202112.0211.87-10%Buy (19)
ViatrisVTRSFeb 202117.4313.63-203.2%Buy (26)
Vistra CorporationVSTJun 202116.6822.03+352.7%Buy (25)
Organon & Co.OGNJul 202130.1930.22+23.7%Buy (46)
Marathon OilMROSep 202112.0116.00+341.5%Buy (18)
TreeHouse FoodsTHSOct 202139.4339.53+00%Buy (60)
Kaman CorporationKAMNNov 202137.4142.63+141.9%Buy (57)
The Western Union Co.WUDec 202116.4017.80+105.3%Buy (25)
BAM Reinsurance PartnersBAMRJan 202261.3261.32na0.9%Buy (93)

Small Cap1 (under $1 billion) Current Recommendations

RecommendationSymbolRec.
Issue
Price at
Rec.
12/23/21Total
Return (3)
Current
Yield
Current
Status (2)
Gannett CompanyGCIAug 201716.995.61+180%Buy (9)
Duluth HoldingsDLTHFeb 20208.6815.14+740%Buy (20)
Dril-QuipDRQMay 202128.2819.4-310%Buy (44)

Most Recent Closed-Out Recommendations

RecommendationSymbolCategoryBuy
Issue
Price
At Buy
Sell
Issue
Price
At Sell
Total
Return(3)
Trinity IndustriesTRNLargeSep 201917.47*Mar 202132.35+92
Valero EnergyVLOLargeNov 202041.97*Apr 202179.03+93
Volkswagen AGVWAGYLargeMay 201715.91*Apr 202142.33+182
Mohawk IndustriesMHKLargeMar 2019138.60*June 2021209.49+51
Jeld-Wen HoldingsJELDMidNov 201816.20*Jul 202127.45+69
BiogenBIIBLargeAug 2019241.51*Jul 2021395.85+64
BorgWarnerBWAMidAug 201633.18*Jul 202153.11+70
The Mosaic CompanyMOSLargeSep 201540.55*Jul 202135.92-4
Oaktree Specialty LendingOCSLSmallOct 20154.91*Sept 20217.09+69
AlbertsonsACIMidAug 202014.95*Sept 202128.56+94
Meredith CorporationMDPMidJan 202033.01*Nov 202158.30+78
Signet Jewelers LimitedSIGSmallOct 201917.47*Dec 2021104.62+505
General MotorsGMLargeMay 201132.09*Dec 202162.19+122

Notes to ratings:
1. Based on market capitalization on the Recommendation date.
2. Price target in parentheses.
3. Total return includes price changes and dividends, with adjustments as necessary for stock splits and mergers.
4. SP - Given the higher risk, we consider these shares to be speculative.
5. * - Indicates mid-month change in Recommendation rating. For Sells, price and returns are as-of the Sell date.


The next Cabot Turnaround Letter will be published on January 26, 2021.