The Scale of the Problem
How big is the energy transition the world needs to undergo? The decline of carbon dioxide emissions last year (a drop of 6.3%) was the sharpest decline since WWII. The world needs 30 more years of that magnitude in a row to constrain global warming to “just” 2 degrees Celsius.
The European Union wants to do its part. It announced a stricter carbon program, aiming to slash emissions by 55% by the end of the decade and to more than double E.U. renewable use, with the expectation it may do away with carbon altogether after 2030. It also plans a carbon-adjusted border tax for goods, based on home country emissions. Domestically, we’re still waiting for an infrastructure bill, but are heartened by the creation of a federal platform for instant solar permits. The Solar Automated Permit Processing program integrates local and federal databases to streamline approvals of rooftop solar projects, which can eliminate a large pain point of time and money. Can these programs keep the growth going? Renewable energy use globally rose 14% in 2020. It needs much more of the same.
The more immediate problem for us is the market, which is suffering from delta variant worries. Yet a choppy market (we’re not in a bear market, yet) sows the seeds of the next rally. This issue we look at three stocks – Ameresco (AMRC), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and General Motors (GM). They each have a combination that makes future leaders – real sales, profits and a clear growth trajectory.
You’ll see for this issue of SX Greentech Advisor that we’ve tweaked our format to make information more accessible – shorter stock write-ups with bite-sized sections and more charts. It’s part of our aim to be nimbler. Please let me know if you have any feedback on the format, or any other questions or comments, at brendan@cabot.net. There is still time too to join me and my fellow Cabot Wealth analysts for our 9th Annual Smarter Investing, Greater Profits Online Conference, August 17-19, where we will present our look ahead and some of our best picks for the next year.
Feature Story: Ameresco
Overview
Most of the renewable installations we see in our daily lives – solar on top of school buildings, a wind turbine or two adjacent to office parks, LEDs, and a biogas collection from a town’s landfill – are pretty small scale. They are often too small for conglomerates to install, in the range of kilowatts and small megawatts – not gigawatts companies like Honeywell (HON) and General Electric (GE) aim to handle. But they’re in the niche of Ameresco (AMRC).
Business Model
Ameresco is a Massachusetts-based engineering and construction firm that takes on renewable energy design and installation and provides ongoing operation for a spectrum of projects taking one month to 2.5 years to complete. The company is experienced in solar, wind turbines, biogas and energy efficiency improvement projects for facilities and municipalities. With about 1,100 employees across 70 offices, it focuses on the U.S., Canada and Europe.
The company’s customer base is governmental, educational and industrial customers. Ameresco has an awarded and contracted backlog of $1.5 billion, more than one year’s sales, plus $2.8 billion in contracted revenues for operating facilities that stretch out over 16 years.
Ameresco’s business is in three major segments.
- Energy solutions. This is the design and installation of renewable projects, mainly solar, biogas and energy efficiency. Indicative of the company’s work, recent projects include a 9.2-megawatt (MW) wind installation in Greece, a $19 million energy efficiency contract for Cannon Air Force Base in New Mexico, including ground solar, LED retrofits and smart HVAC.
- Renewable asset ownership. These originate when installation customers don’t want to hold ownership of the project for balance sheet or political reasons. Ameresco owns about 287 MW equivalent of assets in this manner, roughly half solar, with much of the rest in renewable biogas facilities, like the one it built for Phoenix, Arizona to harvest biogas from its wastewater. Owning assets come under contracts that guarantee Ameresco a long-term flow of revenue. There is another 400 MW of assets it will own under development.
- Facility operation and maintenance. Similar to renewable asset ownership, but in these instances clients own the asset and hire Ameresco to run it. One example of this work is the Department of Energy’s Savannah River, S.C., facility. Ameresco built a 20MW biomass generator, the government’s largest biomass generating project to date. It takes wood waste, mainly unusable logging scraps, to create steam and generate electricity.
- Miscellaneous. A fourth, minor, segment includes conducting research under contract, such as a Defense Department mandate to conduct research on supporting microgrids with next generation flow batteries. As a result of climate change, the U.S. military wants to give bases the ability to be self-sustaining in extreme weather events.
Business Performance and Outlook
The company has been profitable every year since it went public in 2010. Sales last year didn’t show the effects of the pandemic, breaking over $1 billion for the first time last year. Revenue should hit $1.1 billion this year, and $1.2 billion the next, with earnings per share seen solidly over $1 each year.
Issues to Consider
Founder and chairman, George Sakallaris is the controlling shareholder by virtue of sole ownership of 18 million class B supervoting shares.
Technical Analysis
Shares are positive, holding the 40-day moving average this week and well above the 200-day. The 52 area looks like very good support and continued weakness would make an approach to that area a potential buy point (provided AMRC continues to outperform, on a relative basis). AMRC weathered a bearish March well, as the monthly chart here shows. March, indicated by the blue arrow, had huge volume, and was a down month, yet bulls managed to close out the period in the top half of the price range and hold the line since.
What to Do Now
Long term, Ameresco is a quality name that should bring profits. However, that isn’t guaranteed anytime soon with shares right now. Shares probably have another attempt at the all-time high of 69.41 in them, but the risk-reward for that isn’t great at the moment – we’d have to reasonably risk about 7 points to harvest those 6. The strategy here is to wait either for improved strength heading higher, ideally a new high, or to buy lower on weakness and improve our risk-reward. WATCH
Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
Revenue (trailing 12 months): $1.07 billion
Earnings per share (TTM): $1.19
All-time high (intraday): 70.25
Market cap: $3.24 billion
Recommendation: WATCH
Feature Story: Chipotle Mexican Grill
Overview
Sustainable food sales in the U.S. have been growing at about a 5% clip the past few years, compared to 1.3% growth in food sales overall in the U.S., according to Nielsen and USDA data. In fast food, one company effectively dominates the sustainable and organic niche – Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Despite more than decade of competitors trying to enter in on sustainable fast-casual food, they haven’t made much of a dent, with the exception of Panera Bread. In fact, Chipotle seems to have come through the pandemic stronger than before.
Business Model
Chipotle has been around long enough (it went public in 2006) and is large enough (2,800 locations in North America and the U.K.) that a deep dive into its business model probably isn’t needed: it serves a limited menu of chicken, beef, pork and bean dishes in wraps and bowls in a fast-casual environment. The company focuses on using ethically farmed livestock, including chickens with outdoor access, pasture raised beef and organic and transitional vegetables, sourcing them locally as needed. The company does use conventionally farmed meat and vegetables as needed to maintain adequate supplies, but generally does a good job of sourcing food from humanely treated animals.
The big innovations in the past year have been the introduction of a quesadilla – long the most-requested menu addition wanted by customers – and a successful expansion of digital ordering jump started by the pandemic. Digitally originated orders are now more than half the business, compared to less than 20% in 2019, with customers mainly ordering on a phone app and picking up completed orders in the store. A sizeable amount (around 25%) of digital are deliveries, which are probably the least profitable part of the business, given commissions it pays to delivery services. With the economy reopened, indications are that Chipotle is retaining the better part of customer digital habits – ordering remotely, then picking up – while successfully raising delivery prices to regain the margin it loses in those sales. The company also rolled out a loyalty program in 2019 that should help customer retention and boost sales, including through data mining. It is also putting drive-through lanes in new locations, something it largely hadn’t done before now – for a business that set its business model many years ago, it remains pleasingly flexible. The rise in digital orders has locations shifting to twin food assembly lines, doubling capacity without raising the wait for physical customers or requiring much capital spending. Management is also moving into fertile territory such as ghost kitchens – locations where the food sold is prepared elsewhere – and digital-only stores (no walk-in ordering) which should allow it to expand into smaller, profitable niche markets like college campuses.
Business Performance and Outlook
Chipotle is a non-tech rarity – a large cap company that promises double-digit growth for the foreseeable future. The company will open more than 200 new locations this year, a rate it expects to extend. The strength of loyalty programs, digital orders and other innovations has analysts expecting the chain can hit $3 million average annual sales per location in the next few years – it was at $2.1 million in 2020. Chipotle had $5.9 billion in sales in 2020, a number expected to near $7.5 billion this year and grow to perhaps $9.5 billion by the end of 2023. EPS was $10.73 in 2020, and, thanks to menu innovations and cost efficiencies, that may quadruple by the end of 2023 (it’s projected to be $25.44 this year).
Issues to Consider:
- Management reported second quarter sales last night. Consensus expectations were for $6.53 a share earnings on sales of $1.88 billion. Results were $7.46 EPS and $1.89 billion sales. That’s very good, however, investor reaction is what matters. The current market has been disappointing for quality names that report strong results. Watch for the market’s reaction through end of day today.
- Food safety issues that plagued the business in the middle of last decade are behind it operationally, but still linger in some consumer minds. Chipotle is actually below per average location revenue of $2.5 million reached last decade as a result.
Technical Analysis
Shares have been on a strong run since the end of May. On third-party estimates, store visits are as strong or better than 2019 levels. Shares quickly backed off the 1,619 all-time high two weeks ago on renewed pandemic fears and it’s possible the drop has put CMG back into its old trading range of 1,350-1,550 where it spent the first portion of the year. For now, resistance is mild; a move down toward support at the 40-day moving average, at 1,450, is possible.
What to Do Now
With the poor start to the week market-wide, it’s important to see how investors trade CMG today, given the release of earnings last night. A move over 1,627 is bullish, a move below 1,402 is bearish, as it would be a break of multiple support lines. WATCH
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Revenue (trailing twelve months): $6.32 billion
Earnings per share (TTM): $14.24
All-time high (intraday): 1626.57
Market cap: $44.04 billion
Recommendation: WATCH
Feature Story: General Motors
Overview
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are a huge growth market, with sales of EVs expected to quadruple from 2020 levels by 2025. That year, 16% of global car sales should be EVs. The surge comes with a wave of EV start-ups: we follow 13 EV makers on the U.S. stock markets, as well as the traditional manufacturers which are shifting toward EVs. It promises huge growth, but also brings a conundrum: overall vehicle sales worldwide aren’t expected to grow over prior peak levels anytime soon. If EVs, then, are essentially a zero-sum game where they replace demand in an internal combustion engine (ICE) car market that isn’t growing (other than the recovery from the pandemic), not every company can be a winner. To gain market share another company has to lose it. Legacy automakers have some weaknesses: an institutional fixation on ICE vehicles where size, power and speed take precedence over value and the environment, mainly. But they also have some advantages: established seller networks, lots of expertise in coordinating huge supply chains, brand recognition and brand loyalty. That brings us to an old-line company that is setting up to compete well in EVs: General Motors (GM).
Business Model
For a company that almost died in the financial crisis of 2008, GM is doing pretty good. The crisis then allowed GM to rationalize its stable of too many brands. Today, it has four main nameplates – Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC and Buick – plus regional marques Holden (Australia) and Baojun, Jiefang and Wiuling (China) as well as its satellite car safety and communication service OnStar and a financial arm. It still makes a tremendous amount of money each year: sales were $122.5 billion in 2020, a pandemic-induced slump of more than 10%. It still earned $4.50 a share. GM is the largest automaker in the U.S. and one of the largest in the world, moving 6.8 million vehicles last year. Still, Wall Street treated the stock like an industrial icon on its way out. That started changing when the company announced last year that it will invest $35 billion into EVs. That has shifted GM to a growth story and maybe even a tech story and with it, redefined the stock in many investors’ eyes. Unlike the dozen or so EV upstarts that have appeared in the market in recent years, GM has an advantage they don’t: The financial strength of the rebound in this business this year and years to come will fund the new EV business plan of the future.
The core to U.S. automakers’ business is large vehicles – SUVs and pickup trucks. GM boasts the best customer loyalty (a 69% retention rate) in large part from preferences for its line of pickups. Like Ford (F) with its Mustang EV, GM bets the EV version of its best-selling Silverado pickup will jumpstart the business. That model has yet to be introduced, but management has indicated its headline EV will be the Silverado to leverage the strength of GM’s truck business to establish EVs in its business (although GM does have the Chevy Bolt, an EV, already). GM says it will have 30 EV models on the market by 2026, and high-volume EVs in the market by 2023.
Another key part to GM’s plan is its Ultium platform, a Lego-like modular platform of EV batteries and drive unit sets which should allow the company to reduce chassis and battery costs globally. The company also has a large stake in Cruise, an autonomous vehicle (AV) program meant to compete with the still-developing AV from Tesla (TSLA), plus OnStar, the satellite-based service sold to individuals as an emergency services type system for crashes or thefts, and to fleets as a logistics system. GM Financial provides financing to dealers to finance operations and encourage vehicle sales. The non-automaking businesses have led to a rising perception that GM’s market cap of $78.6 billion is less than the sum of the company’s parts.
Business Performance and Outlook
GM is in a nice spot – it spent heavily on modernizing and updating its ICE line the past decade, and therefore actually has little capital demand to refresh it going forward. The investment savings on that side helps rationalize EV investment – this year, the company will spend more on EV development than ICE development for the first time ever. The best thing for a stock is to have a plan and excite investors about it. Sales should rise 13.5% this year to $139.1 billion in the pandemic rebound, accelerating to $147 billion next year. Look for EPS over $7 this year.
Issues to Consider:
- GM depends on sales in China, directly and from joint ventures, for more than 40% of revenue. An economic cold war between the U.S. and China could harm that.
- The company has underfunded pension obligations of $11.1 billion and has a history of labor unrest.
- GM suspended its dividend in 2020 as a defensive measure in the pandemic.
- Culturally, is GM still the company that killed the electric car, as a well-known 2006 documentary claimed? Will the same bureaucracy that led to an uninspiring design for the hybrid Chevrolet Volt fumble its opening with EVs this time?
Technical Analysis
GM’s announcement it would invest heavily in EVs last November busted shares through of their then-all time high of 40. The current all-time high of 64 was made in June – remember, GM went bankrupt and its stock history is now just 10 years long. Very good support should be found at 50, where the 200-day moving average and prior chart resistance/support levels converge.
What to Do Now
We’re going to make sure GM holds support in the current market environment and be ready to buy. WATCH
General Motors Corp. (GM)
Revenue (trailing twelve months): $122.25 billion
Earnings per share (TTM): $6.18
All-time high (intraday): 64.30
Market cap: $80.31 billion
Recommendation: WATCH
The ESG Three
The ESG Three are three technically strong stocks selected from the 200 most-held stocks in environmental, social and governance focused mutual funds and ETFs. We screen further to eliminate widely held companies we believe have clear ESG problems. ESG fund holdings tend to be weighted toward blue-chip companies drawn from every industry which are rated highly in social and governance aspects. These aren’t formal stock picks but suggestions for those looking to explore additional stocks beyond the Greentech portfolio.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
What is it?
An active lifestyle apparel company.
Why is it ESG?
It complies with voluntary agreements to restrict certain harmful substances in textiles, and dictates chemical safety and prohibitions for use in clothing. Its pay practices are evaluated as good and on par with peers. ESG funds own $101.1 million of its shares.
Why now?
The business beat expectations in the first quarter, Wall Street is bullish and shares appear ready to test resistance at 400, a push over that level is a sign to buy.
Waters Corp (WAT)
What is it?
A specialty measurement company, for industrial uses, such as spectrometry and chromatography.
Why is it ESG?
Waters adheres to high manufacturing standards and has had no quality problems. It has a high exposure to China and its tendency toward executive corruption, but appears to have mechanisms to combat that in place.
Why now?
Ten straight months of stock gains are quite bullish, though suggest shares may take a pause or step back. Pharmaceutical, academic and industrials are its main customers, all are doing well and management has raised guidance for the year.
LKQ Corp (LKQ)
What is it?
A distributor of auto parts to the repair and owner market.
Why is it ESG?
LKQ’s independent-majority board and share voting structure is considered good for common shareholders.
Why now?
Good share performance and a price-to-earnings for the current year (estimated) of under 16 suggest more upside. Support is in the high 45 area, a move over 52 is bullish.
Our Greentech Timer
Our Timer is flashing a big caution sign, with the sector under all of the three moving averages we watch. In the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index, which is more broadly configured than other cleantech indexes, the 20- 40- and 200-day moving averages are all starting to turn southward too, a sign there is a hard work ahead to get bullish. Still, the move lower this week may just be a test of support and a potential test of resistance isn’t far above us here either. Greentech has been a frustrating market, with no real leaders to focus on (similar to the broad market) and businesses that seem primed to buck the trend are not gaining traction in the stock market. Just about every sector – solar, wind, energy storage, EVs, remediation and recycling, and utilities – are slumping. Are there winners we could have bought into and missed? Not really. In a review of the performance of the Greentech universe – the 244 companies we follow – the best performers in the past month have been too risky for a choppy market – China solar panel maker JinkoSolar (JKS) and the microcap Superconductor Technologies (SCON) – or buyout offers for companies that hadn’t signaled buy beforehand – Raven Industries (RAVN) and Lydall Inc (LDL). In short, we’re seeing the difficulties applying momentum strategies in a non-trending market. Should this continue, we may shift next issue to a strategy we employ in range-bound markets, buying quality names in the low part of their cycle and selling in the high part of the range.
Our Greentech Timer is fully bullish when the index is above the 20-day and 40-day moving average and those averages are upward trending (ideally, the index is also above an upward trending 200-day moving average too, but not essential). Right now, the Timer says be very cautious. We could be at the bottom of a period of weakness or we could continue lower from here. Keeping mostly in cash as we have been with the Greentech portfolio is the prudent stance.
Current Portfolio
Our primary portfolio is the Greentech Real Money Portfolio – we invest alongside subscribers in the picks we make. That portfolio is designed to be fully invested at 12 stocks of equally sized initial investments. This gets us enough opportunities to capitalize on Greentech’s advances without risking too much money in any one position. Always remember sell-stops are essential to long-term success in our approach.
The special opportunities portfolio is Excelsior, which is managed without consideration of the Real Money Portfolio. The current Excelsior portfolio is an evenly divided basket of SPAC warrants. We have no firm sell-stops; use your discretion.
| SX Greentech Advisor Real Money Portfolio | ||||||
| Stock | Buy Date | Buy Price | Price on 7/20/21 | Sell-Stop | Gain/Loss | Rating |
| Aptiv plc (APTV) | — | — | 153.15 | — | — | Watch |
| Steel Dynamics (STLD) | 5/19/21 | 61.13 | 59.11 | near 56.97 | -3.30% | Hold |
| Stem Inc (STEM) | — | — | 26.47 | — | — | Watch |
| Trex (TREX) | 5/5/21 | 107.44 | 97.88 | near 93 | -8.90% | Hold |
| SX Greentech Advisor Excelsior Portfolio | ||||||
| Security | Buy Date | Buy Price | Price on 7/20/21 | Gain/Loss | Rating | Note |
| Live Oak Acquisition Corp. II (LOKB) Warrant | 6/16/21 | 2.565 | 2.05 | -20.08% | Buy | Navitas Semi |
| Origin Materials (ORGN) Warrant | 6/16/21 | 2.425 | 1.66 | -31.55% | Buy | was Artius Acquistion (AACQ) ticker change 6/25/21 |
| Peridot Acquisition (PDAC) Warrant | 6/16/21 | 2.42 | 2.23 | -7.85% | Buy | Li-Cycle |
| RMG Acquisition II (RMGB) Warrant | 6/16/21 | 1.81 | 1.49 | -17.68% | Buy | ReNew Power |
| Tortoise Acquisition II Corp. (SNPR) Warrant | 6/16/21 | 2.21 | 1.88 | -14.93% | Buy | Volta |
| 10X Venture Capital (VCVC) Warrant | 6/16/21 | 1.1 | 1.75 | 59.09% | Buy | Ree |
Portfolio notes: STLD is paying a 26-cents a share dividend to holders of record as of June 30. Add .425 of a percentage point to the Gain/Loss to get our total return on the position.
Real Money Portfolio
Aptiv plc (APTV)
Shares broke support in Monday’s market sell off, suggesting there may be more downside, possibly into the 130 area – we want to see 135 hold as an area of multiple supports. The 160 area remains resistance we’ll want to see broken for a longer run higher. So, for now we are in a range and, depending on the character of a move lower, may be buyers as shares get cheaper. WATCH
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
The company reported its second-quarter results Monday night, and the Wall Street analyst consensus was: better than expected, as expected. Sales were $4.47 billion, up from $2.01 billion a year ago, and earnings per share were $3.22, up from 36 cents last year. Management provided a strong outlook, also in line with expectations. More importantly for us, the company instituted a $1 billion share buyback program, available immediately, which would take off about 8% of the float. STLD has been weaker of late, breaching our sell-stop mark intraday a couple of times (remember, we act on closing prices), so we need to keep an eye on how investors take earnings and outlook. We’re going to keep our sell-stop around 56.97. HOLD
Stem Inc (STEM)
Shares of the energy storage company have surrendered 7 points since we put it on our watchlist last issue. Partly it’s in reaction to a filing to sell 4.6 million shares, to be sold by Star Peak, the sponsor of the SPAC that took the company public. A legitimate criticism of SPACs is that sponsors have no lock-up or commitment period to the company after the merger – the sponsors want to collect the spoils of their efforts quickly. In addition to the sale and broad market conditions, Stem is also likely being hurt by the lack of a federal infrastructure spending. Since it’s on Watch, we can play the long game and be ready to buy if conditions turn our way. For now though, the near term trend looks negative, with a downside test of support at 19 possible. WATCH
Trex Inc. (TREX)
Trex has turned mixed, with some indications the longer-term uptrend is in trouble. The temptation is to loosen the sell-stop from its current “near 93” because little has changed with fundamentals (there has been no news), but it remains the prudent area, technically, since it’s the neckline that undoes the move higher that started in early April and also in a stage of a descending triangle formation where a break down (or higher) would be expected to occur. HOLD
Excelsior Portfolio
Li-Cycle / Peridot SPAC (PDAC warrant)
Peridot shareholders will vote on the Li-Cycle merger on August 4 with results coming on August 5. The close of the transaction is expected sometime before the end of September. Li-Cycle has announced recycling deals with GM and its Ultium battery plant and Univar Solutions, a North American distributor of chemicals and other components for manufacturing, including lithium. Shares and warrants have weakened, probably on a sell-the-news of SPAC mergers closing but remain fine.
Navitas Semiconductor / Live Oak II SPAC (LOKB warrant)
The companies hold an investor day next week, July 26, which will be livestreamed starting at 11:30 am Eastern. Shares and warrants are down slightly, but it’s normal drifting. Navitas announced its third GaN USB charger with Hong Kong-listed Xiaomi.
Origin Materials (ORGN warrant)
Little news this week as the carbon-negative plastics maker settles into publicly traded life. Warrant prices imply shares should be more than double where they are now, but SPAC share/warrant behavior tends to be illogical for stretches.
Ree / 10X Capital SPAC (VCVC warrant)
We’re starting to see Wall Street take notice of our EV chassis maker, with a small brokerage, DA Davidson, starting the SPAC at a buy with a $15 target. That implies our warrants should more than double.
ReNew Power / RMG II SPAC (RMGB warrant)
India seems likely to change regulations to remove expiration dates from renewable energy certificates, credits that producers like ReNew can resell, guaranteeing revenue for the clean energy it generates. ReNew is a large owner and operator of renewable energy facilities throughout India.
Volta Charging / Tortoise 2 SPAC (SNPR warrant)
No news this week on the EV charging station firm. Shares and warrants are weaker, but it’s on low volume and appears normal.
Thank you for being a subscriber. Contact me anytime with questions or comments at brendan@cabot.net. Our regular update is next week, on July 28, with any updates as needed before then.
The next Sector Xpress Greentech Advisor issue will be published on August 4, 2021.
Cabot Wealth Network
Publishing independent investment advice since 1970.
President & CEO: Ed Coburn
Chief Investment Strategist: Timothy Lutts
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