Marijuana stocks remain under pressure, as year-end tax selling pressures continue, but the marijuana industry is booming, as evidenced not only by recent quarterly reports but also by the growth of MJBizCon, the industry’s leading conference.
I returned to the conference in Las Vegas last week and can report these highlights:
1. Attendance was roughly 35,000 people, up from 27,000 in 2018.
2. Exhibitors numbered roughly 1,300, up from over 1,000 last year.
3. International presence was notable, with Chinese vape companies in particular proliferating.
4. Technological advances continue in every aspect of the business, from growing to processing to retailing.
5. The horticultural industry was a big presence, offering lighting, greenhouses, irrigation systems, fertilizers, anti-mold systems and more—including this “soil conditioner” peddled by these guys from a Rhode Island tilapia farm.
6. Colorado has 572 marijuana stores, or one for every 10,000 people. Ontario, with more than twice the population, has just 24 stores, and that bottleneck is the biggest reason for the underperformance of the Canadian marijuana stocks in particular this year.
7. Hopes are high for U.S. multistate operators in 2020, with Illinois and Michigan legalizing adult use and New York and New Jersey looking more likely to legalize next year.
8. The vaping crisis, which has killed 52 people to date, is already fading as consumers become better educated and black market manufacturers cease using vitamin E acetate—but true success won’t come until the industry has clear federal regulations, and that can’t happen without federal legality.
9. Federally, prospects are low for any real progress in the coming year, whether it’s the SAFE Act, the MORE act or outright legalization of marijuana.
10. Last but not least, my favorite product: In 2017 it was the automated brownie-cutting machine; in 2018 it was the automated drone crop sprayer; and this year it was the BudRubber, a behemoth machine that separates hemp flowers from stalks and leaves. The BudRubber, physically the biggest single product at the show, is towed to a field and can process up to 5,000 pounds of hemp an hour.
The BudRubber
Other News
2019 Legal Cannabis Sales in the U.S. are estimated to be $13.6 billion—which might grow to $29.7 billion by 2025.
Major League Baseball (MLB) announced new changes to its drug policy last week that will see cannabis officially removed from its ‘Drugs of Abuse’ list. Players will no longer be subject to a $35,000 fine for testing positive for cannabis, and marijuana will now be treated the same as alcohol in regards to substance abuse.
The National Football League (NFL) is not quite as enlightened but it’s getting there, as both Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys, and New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady recently mentioned the possibility of the NFL’s marijuana rules being revised.
What To Do Now
If you still own any cannabis stocks hitting new lows (as opposed to building a base), consider selling them. Sure, they might bounce, but their prospects of being true leaders are not as good as the prospects of the stocks that are stronger. And if you’re underinvested, now is the time to get in, before the new year’s buying starts. In fact, I’ve upgraded several stocks to buy for that reason. Plus, because the portfolio’s cash position is now 43% and I believe that’s too high as we enter the new year, I’m adding two new stocks to the portfolio and averaging up in others. Specifically, I’ll initiate new 4% positions in GrowGeneration (GRWG) and Planet 13 (PLNHF); both stocks are rather lightly traded, so be careful and take your time. I’ll put an additional 4% in both Canopy Growth (CGC) and Cresco Labs (CRLBF). And I’ll put an additional 2% in Trulieve, which went through the wringer on Tuesday. Details below.
Note: The table reflects the state of the portfolio holdings before acting on any new recommendations.
Stock Updates
Aphria (APHA) Aphria remains the largest holding in the portfolio, and for good reason. It’s the biggest seller in Canada. It’s not as overvalued/overexposed as Canopy. And its chart is looking constructive, having bottomed below 4 in mid-November. BUY.
Aurora (ACB) Aurora should be a major force in Canada, but the portfolio holds a minimal position in the stock, partially because it’s overvalued relative to its peers and partially because the stock has been weak. And just this week, an analyst opined that Aurora would run out of cash this year, which brought more sellers to the table. As I write, the stock is just above its low of mid-November (by a hair) but if it falls through there, I urge you to reduce exposure. HOLD.
Canopy Growth (CGC) Still the most high-profile Canadian cannabis company, Canopy has good prospects, thanks to the presence of major investor Constellation Brands (STZ). It’s hit the ground running for Cannabis 2.0, with a full menu of vapes, edibles and beverages for the Canadian market. And looking at the chart, I see a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which implies that the next move is up. However, the stock is still expensive, so I’m torn between waiting for true momentum to return and putting some money back in now, and my choice is the latter, given that the portfolio holds only a minimal position and there’s good potential for this leading name to appreciate from this low point. I’m increasing the position by 4% of the portfolio. BUY.
Cresco Labs (CRLBF) Chicago-based Cresco Labs has rallied strongly over the past two weeks, so has the potential to begin a new uptrend. And fundamentally, all is well. With revenues of $36.2 million in the third quarter, Cresco ranks fourth among U.S. multistate operators (MSOs). And operationally, it’s a star, as the company just won the U.S. Cannabis Company Game Changer Award at the inaugural MJBizDaily Awards in Las Vegas. The award recognizes Canopy as a company that has “demonstrated true innovation, pushed boundaries, expanded its business, influenced public policy and rulemaking at all levels, all while showing strong business performance.” I’m increasing the position by 4% of the portfolio. BUY.
Cronos Group (CRON) Canadian Cronos remains above its November low, but there’s no real buying power here and the stock still looks expensive to me, so the portfolio remains underweight. HOLD.
Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) Curaleaf was the biggest legal seller of marijuana in the U.S. in the third quarter, and the stock is the portfolio’s second largest position, in part because the valuation looks good relative to its peers. If you don’t own any, you could buy on this pullback. HOLD.
Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) This Chicago-based MSO’s stock has been basing since late August, and it looks like it won’t get going until 2020. But the valuation looks reasonable and the fundamentals are good. Today the company announced that it will open Rise Paterson, its first store in New Jersey, on Saturday, December 21. This will be Green Thumb’s 37th store in the country and the fourth store the company has opened within the last month. Green Thumb also operates a cultivation and processing facility in Paterson, which this month received its permit to begin growing cannabis, and is the first cannabis company to become operational in New Jersey among the 2018 license award winners. BUY.
GrowGeneration (GRWG) Being added to the portfolio now, GrowGeneration operates the largest and fastest growing chain of hydroponic garden centers in North America. Today the company has 26 locations in eight states, generating over 7,000 weekly transactions, and its online store, located at HeavyGardens.com, now receives over 50,000 unique visitors per month. It has 5 locations in Colorado, 5 locations in California, 2 locations in Nevada, 1 location in Washington, 4 locations in Michigan, 1 location in Rhode Island, 4 locations in Oklahoma, 1 location in Oregon and 3 locations in Maine. Growth comes from both acquisitions and organic growth. And this week the company announced that it had purchased the assets of GrowWorld, which has been the biggest hydroponics retail store with the highest sales volume in Portland, Oregon since 2015. This is the company’s eighth acquisition in 2019. Third-quarter revenue was up 159% from the year before to $21.8 million and adjusted EPS was $0.06 per share, marking the company’s third consecutive profitable quarter. During the conference call, management commented, “The newly acquired stores and new store openings are all performing better than expected and have been successfully integrated into the operations of the overall company.” Interestingly, while the company is clearly targeting the cannabis industry in their expansion efforts, I couldn’t find a single use of the words “cannabis” and “marijuana” on their website. Apparently, they thought that was wise, legally. Additionally, Bob Nardelli, the former CEO of Home Depot, was appointed Senior Strategic Advisor at the company this year, and that’s a real plus. The stock started 2019 at 2.6, hit a high of 5.7 in September, and then pulled back to 3.5, and since then it’s been trading mainly between 4 and 5, technically ready to head higher. I think this lower-risk stock will provide some balance for the portfolio, and ideally, succeed in a manner similar to Home Depot. We’ll start with a 4% position. BUY.
Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) IIPR is the REIT that currently owns 42 properties located in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania, totaling approximately 2.9 million rentable square feet—all of which it leases to cannabis companies. The portfolio took profits in the stock four times this year, and started buying back in recently, with the stock about 48% off its high. Also, Tom Hutchinson, chief analyst of Cabot Dividend Investor, just added it to his portfolio. If you want relatively low-risk exposure to the cannabis industry, consider this. BUY.
MediPharm Labs (MEDIF) MediPharm is a major Canadian extractor and the stock has been building a base between 2.5 and 2.7. Ideally, this is the prelude to a move higher, but there’s no sign of buying power yet. HOLD.
Organigram (OGI) New Brunswick-based OrganiGram remains above its low of November—which is good—but below its downtrending 25-day moving average—which is bad. I could lighten up here, but I don’t want raise any more cash so I’ll sit tight and see what the new year brings. HOLD.
Planet 13 (PLNHF) Being added to the portfolio now, Planet 13 operates the world’s biggest cannabis store, located in Las Vegas, Nevada, which currently serves an average of roughly 2,000 paying customers per day. But it’s not just a retailer; the company is vertically integrated, growing its product in Nevada and also developing and producing products like Dreamland Chocolates. And the cannabis store is actually more of an entertainment complex, including a bistro and pizzeria and coffee shop. Third-quarter revenues were $16.7 million, up 241% from the year before, while adjusted EBITDA was $3.4 million compared to $376,611 the year before. The company has six licenses in Nevada, and also plans to expand into California. Additionally, Planet 13 received the top award in the retail category at the MJBizDaily Awards. The stock peaked at 2.7 in April, bottomed at 1.3 in October, and is now working its way higher. We’ll start with a 4% position. BUY.
Trulieve (TCNNF) Trulieve was the strongest stock in the entire cannabis universe until Tuesday, when the stock was hit by a short-sellers’ attack. You can read more about that in my update from that day, available on the website. In the short term, the attack succeeded, but in the long run, Trulieve still looks like a good investment, as it’s the largest seller of medical marijuana in Florida, it’s profitable, and it has plans to move into other states. Since the attack, Trulieve management has not only rebutted the allegations but “extended the lock-up restrictions in respect of 11,205,960 subordinate voting shares of the Company (on an as-converted basis), representing 15% of the subordinate voting shares of the Company that were due to be released January 25, 2020,” basically affirming that they’re committed to holding, and announced two new advisors to its Board of Directors. These are Susan Thronson, previously Senior Vice President of Global Marketing for Marriott International, a director of Angie’s List, and SONIC Drive-In; and Thomas Millner, previously CEO of Cabela’s, president and CEO of Remington Arms Company, and currently a director of Best Buy. Hopefully, you didn’t panic Tuesday morning and let these guys profit. If you’re not invested yet, this is a good time to start. I’m going to increase our position by 2% of the portfolio. BUY.
Turning Point Brands (TPB) Turning Point Brands is a well-managed company with a long history of selling other tobacco products, like snuff and chewing tobacco. It pays a small dividend too, currently 0.7%. And its 25- and 50-day moving averages are both trending up! Granted, it won’t be a rocket-shot, but it does provide nice diversification. BUY.