NGVC, FIP & AVPT Earnings Review
Natural Grocers (NGVC) should have a decent day (+20% in early hours trading) after Q2 earnings beat expectations. Revenue grew 9.0% to $335.8 million (a $6.1 million beat) while GAAP EPS of $0.56 grew by 60%. Daily average comparable store sales grew by 8.9%. This was a very strong quarter.
Management raised full-year EPS guidance from a range of $1.57 - $1.65 up to a range of $1.78 - $1.86 and upped daily average comparable store sales growth to a range of 6.5% - 7.5% from prior guidance of 5% - 7%. Looking good. Keeping at buy. BUY HALF
FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) reported after the close yesterday and held its conference call at 8 AM ET this morning. The company delivered revenue of $96.2 million (+16.5% from last year’s Q1) and diluted EPS of $0.89. It also declared a $0.03 dividend, payable on May 27 to shareholders of record as of May 19.
On the business development front, the three big items from the quarter were the (1) refinancing and increase in ownership completed at Long Ridge, as well as approval to fast track a 20MW upgrade (adds $8 million in annual EBITDA w/no capital since it’s a software upgrade), (2) new contracts executed at Repauno and (3) first of three contracts at Jefferson terminal, beginning on April 1.
Management said the net impact of these activities is expected to add around $190 million in total annual EBITDA, bringing the total for 2025 to around $330 million, with a line of sight to $400 million if a few things fall into place.
Talking about tariff and trade impacts, management said it could benefit from the Trump administration’s push to export more energy to Europe, which would benefit NLG volumes at Rapauno (three new contracts signed recently, each at a higher rate than the one before). Jefferson terminal exports waxy crude, primarily from Utah, and could also benefit, though not much was said about it on the call. Transtar (rail business) is a beneficiary of the news from yesterday regarding steel imports into the U.K. from the U.S. Long Ridge (powerplant) is more of a domestic-focused asset, so not a lot of impact.
The stock is trading lower soon after the open, likely due to all the moving parts in this business making it somewhat difficult to analyze and a significant lack of analyst coverage. Keeping at hold and watching. FIP’s action has improved a lot since it bottomed out in April. HOLD
AvePoint (AVPT) is trading higher this morning on a very strong Q1 result. Revenue grew 24.9% to $93.1 million (beating by $4.3 million) while adjusted EPS of $0.06 doubled from last year’s Q1 and beat by $0.02. Annualized recurring revenue (ARR), one of the most closely watched software company metrics, was $345.5 million, well above consensus expectations of $339.7 million. On the conference call, management said that, while there is clearly some disruption in macro trends, the demand environment in AI and security in B2B software is very strong and that businesses continue to prioritize data integrity to prepare for and support AI deployments. Considering moving back to buy but will wait to see how the stock acts in the coming days. HOLD
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