April 10, 2025

Where to begin.

Let’s start here. I think the idea that the Trump administration had a perfectly executed strategy that included tanking the global equity markets and sending the bond market into utter chaos, to get to the point of announcing 10% tariffs across the board as a major “win,” excluding China, is a stretch.

I think it’s worth keeping this in mind as we move through the coming quarters, regardless of where one falls on the love/hate spectrum for this administration.

If we just put all the policy drama to the side, the bottom line is that both the equity and bond markets were (and maybe still are) telling us that the cogs of the financial system were starting to get loose.

That’s happened before, including during the pandemic meltdown and the financial crisis. But what’s so different about this time is that it was/is the result of deliberate policy actions.

To state the obvious, that’s a huge difference. And it’s likely to undermine negotiations between the U.S. and other nations for some time to come.

I’m not saying good deals won’t get done and things can’t return to some sense of “normal.” They certainly can. The bottom line is people have to come to the table and figure things out.

But people in power don’t just get over it when they don’t know if they’re negotiating in good faith or not.

I think that sense of unease is what’s pushed the market down today. Hopefully, it will wear off soon.

Big picture, we know that markets don’t like uncertainty. And they don’t like things to happen too quickly, unless it’s good news. We’ve had a lot of uncertainty and a lot of “bad” things happening quickly lately.

Let’s hope the Trump administration continues to listen to the real Boss, the bond market, as well as business leaders who seem to prioritize good messaging, regardless of the policies, to keep the markets from swinging around so wildly that people completely lose their minds.

Enough about that. On to our portfolio.

We let go of one position this week, Alkami Technology (ALKT). I think the risks of recession have gone up enough, and the company’s small banking clients are more likely to push out tech projects than they were even a few weeks ago, that it was best to step aside.

Elsewhere, our MedTech positions have been pretty darn resilient. And our gold stock has outperformed.

Our newest addition, Natural Grocers (NGVC), is up about 13% since I recommended it a week ago. That performance would make me feel pretty darn smart if it wasn’t for the performance of our two duds (that I still like by the way), Enovix (ENVX) and FTAI Infrastructure (FIP), which are doing a fantastic job of keeping me humble.

I’m curious to know what you think of everything that’s going on and how you think it’ll work out. If you feel like sharing a thought or two, shoot me an email at tyler@cabotwealth.com.

Recent Changes

Alkami Technology (ALKT) moved to SELL on 4/9/25

Updates

Alkami Technology (ALKT) was sold yesterday, and I detailed the rationale in the Special Bulletin. SOLD

Artivion (AORT) hasn’t been immune to the recent wild swings in the market. But with shares trading about where they were a month ago, the stock has fared far better than most. The company is a pure-play aortic disease MedTech company, selling medical devices, implantable human tissue and preservation services to cardiac and vascular surgeons treating patients with heart valve disease, aortic aneurysms and dissections. The next big product development milestone is to get the NEXUS aortic arch stent graft system approved in the U.S. It should happen later next year. BUY

AvePoint (AVPT) is about flat on the week and trading higher than it was a month ago. Suffice to say, this is remarkable performance in the face of an insane market. AVPT continues to trade right on its 200-day line. The software company offers a data management and governance platform that helps customers control and secure information within their digital systems. It’s increasingly recognized as a play on AI given that organizations can’t implement AI technologies if their data and security controls are a mess. AvePoint does the vast majority of its work within the Microsoft (MSFT) environment currently, but its solutions also work within Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and other cloud platform providers. HOLD

Axogen (AXGN) recently sent out a press release disclosing that it sees minimal impact from Trump’s tariffs, regardless of where they settle. The press release read, “Axogen anticipates minimal impact from these tariffs, as well as from any retaliatory actions taken by other countries, on its current financials and underlying business model. The vast majority of the company’s sales are domestic, as is the manufacturing of its products. The costs associated with imported materials needed for its operations is minimal.” Good deal. The stock hasn’t been immune to the selling, but it’s been resilient. AXGN is flat over the last week and down over the last two. The fundamental story remains intact. Axogen is a MedTech company specializing in surgical solutions for peripheral nerve injuries. Its current focus is trauma and upper-extremity-related nerve repair, and it is making progress growing into oral maxillofacial (OMF), pain and breast reconstruction (fastest growing market). BUY HALF

Delcath (DCTH) enjoyed a little rally in the middle part of March (shortly after earnings came out) but fell back to its 200-day line last week. Shares have been up and down in the 10-11.6 range this week. It’s been more volatile than our other MedTech stocks. The company’s targeted, whole-organ treatment system (focused on liver-dominant cancers) delivers a high dose of a chemotherapy agent directly to the liver, which is isolated from the rest of the patient’s vascular system. This morning, the company put out a press release discussing a comparative analysis from the randomized cohort of the company’s Phase 3 FOCUS study. The data showed the safety profile of patients treated with Melphalan/HDS was consistent with prior reports. Not stock-moving news (DCTH is down today because of what the broad market is doing). Considering filling the other half of our position, but not ready to pounce yet. BUY HALF

Enovix (ENVX) has taken a hit with the market and, given it has production facilities in Malaysia, there has likely been some tariff-related concern. That said, Enovix is not producing at quantity yet; that’s supposed to come later this year and into 2026 and beyond. But ENVX stock is clearly higher on the risk spectrum as a pre-production battery manufacturer than a lot of small caps, and this isn’t a great market for the stock’s profile. Case in point, the company’s news from April 2 that it will acquire a South Korean production facility from SolarEdge (SEDG) to help the company address the demand in the defense industry for its batteries did nothing to help the stock in the face of “Liberation Day” selling. The news from March 31 that Enovix has reached a milestone that triggered a payment for sample battery cells from a leading smartphone OEM also did little to help the stock. Holding and waiting. Buy a little if you have a longer time horizon and ample risk appetite. BUY

FTAI Infrastructure (FIP) has been a disaster for us so far, but it’s worth pointing out that it’s not the only infrastructure stock that’s really suffered. With the stock currently yielding over 3% and multiple businesses with expansion projects in the works, I believe it’s worth being patient here. HOLD

Natural Grocers (NGVC) was added last week and is doing fantastically, dramatically outperforming the market since last Thursday. Part of that is likely because it’s a conservative stock, a grocery store, that should be just fine even if there is a recession. The other part is that it’s a play on healthy eating, which is a very strong trend among consumers. We started with half a position and will stick with that for now. BUY HALF

Perpetua Resources (PPTA), like a lot of gold stocks, has been a beacon of light in this murky market (it’s our only position trading higher today). It’s not yet a producer, however, so it hasn’t benefited from higher gold prices that are padding revenue for gold producers. Part of the pitch for Perpetua, besides gold, is its antimony production potential. While that potential is still very much part of the story, it’s faded way into the backdrop as macro concerns have taken over. Big picture, the stock still looks quite good. BUY HALF

That’s it for this week. Please email me at tyler@cabotwealth.com with any questions or comments about any of our stocks, or anything else on your mind.

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