AxoGen (AXGN), AppFolio (APPF) and Apptio (APTI) report
Our portfolio’s earnings season kicked off with a bang last night with three companies opening their books from Q3. As I expected the reactions were significant and unpredictable. We took partial profits on all positions ahead of earnings and have kept them rated hold into the events. Here’s what we’ve learned today:
Apptio (APTI) beat on both the top and bottom line with revenue growth of 26% (to $59 million) beating by $1.1 million and EPS of $0.05 beating by $0.02. Including the acquired Digital Fuel business, it appears that subscription billings were just over 20%. Trailing twelve-month net retention rate is around 102%. Management raised 2018 full-year revenue guidance to $233.8 million (at the midpoint), implying 24% growth (consensus was at 23.3%). The Digital Fuel acquisition appears to be bearing fruit with cross-selling success with a Fortune 5 company. The pipeline with the US Federal government also appears to be stacked, though it’s early and we shouldn’t count on lots of deals too soon. This opportunity represents upside potential.
The company continues to move down-market to smaller companies, including those with under $1 billion in revenue, and it has started to build an inside sales force to go after this specific market. The one negative from the call was that management mentioned some customers have asked for delayed payment terms, and while that is a normal part of the business it was more pronounced in Q3, so it drove a wider gap between billings and bookings. Management said billings typically swing 2% to 4% in a given quarter, and they were within that range this quarter. But as Apptio moves down-market that swing could widen given that it’s normal to extend more flexible payment terms to new, smaller customers. Management closed the call by saying it feels good about raised guidance and that Q4 is a seasonally strong one and the early evidence is things are going well.
Bottom line here is Apptio is a pioneer in software for IT spend management and has around 40% of the Fortune 100 as customers. It’s moving down-market to expand its market potential, and that means new sales teams and tweaked products (much of which it has done), as well as what sounds like more flexible billing terms. Its pricing model is based on spend under management, so that implies revenue will ebb and flow depending on the IT budgets of big businesses. If there’s a weakness in the eyes of the market, that’s probably it.
We’re looking at a business here that should grow by around 25% this year, then in the mid-teens range in 2019 and 2010. EPS should move from about $0.07 this year to $0.25 in 2020. That growth profile in a specialty software market is attractive to me. That said, shares gapped down today at the open so clearly the market isn’t overly excited about the result. On the other hand, this is a neurotic market. Shares have been clawing back throughout the day so there isn’t a lot of incentive to sell today. However, I’m considering selling another quarter position and holding just a small position until the trend improves. I’ll update you as the week progresses. For now, Hold. HOLD 1/2.
AxoGen (AXGN) jumped at the open today and is trading around 10% higher. Revenue was up $41.2% and beat by a small margin while EPS of -$0.05 beat by $0.06. Revenue from the direct sales team (which drives 80% of sales) was up 50% and sales from the independent sales agencies (which drive the other 20%) reportedly stabilized. The downside is that sales and marketing expense growth of 64.7% outpaced revenue growth. The number of active accounts was up 21% to 679. Guidance for 2018 was reiterated for at least 40% growth with 35% growth the target for 2019. That second number was a little lower than expected; consensus was at almost 40%. However, expectations were low going into earnings, as was the stock price.
Management discussed their belief that AxoGen remains early in its growth trajectory given that it’s still not penetrating the middle adopter surgeons other than in a few core markets and that with new products and procedures being targeted the market potential is growing. It also highlighted that the FDA granted the Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation for Avance Nerve Graft, which aims to help speed development of therapies for serious diseases and life-threatening conditions. Management also talked about how they’ve been competing with Stryker, Integra and Synovis for years and that there is no new competitive dynamic to speak of.
All in all, it sounded like a perfectly fine quarter but budding concerns about slowing growth, whether that be from surgeon adoption, sales team execution issues or competitive dynamic, etc., are somewhat valid. That’s why the stock is up some, but not a ton—the growth trajectory is still a question. The trick now is to try and figure out what a slightly slower growing AxoGen is worth. The market is suggesting more than was priced in going into the day. The stock is trading almost exactly where we took partial profits so let’s sit pat and see how it behaves over the next couple of days. We can still sell a quarter position if the trend deteriorates. There will be an analyst day on November 19, which is something to look forward to. HOLD 1/2.
AppFolio (APPF) sold off today despite reporting revenue growth of 32.3% (to $50.1 million) that came in roughly 5% ahead of expectations. Part of the issue is that EPS of $0.16 missed by $0.05, though it was up by 50%. Property manager units under management jumped 20% on a 12% increase in Property Manager customers (now at 12,640) illustrating the move up to larger customers. Customer count in the legal vertical was up by 11%. Most of the revenue growth was driven by Value+ services (up 42%), which include things like electronic payment services, insurance services and screening services in the property management vertical.
AppFolio bought WegoWise in the quarter, which will help it build out products around utility analytics for building owners. We have new guidance for 2018 for revenue of $187 to $188 million, which is modestly above consensus of $185.6 million. In typical AppFolio fashion management didn’t take questions on the conference call so there’s not a lot of detail to add. Shares opened lower, recovered a bit, and traded flat at 54 for the remainder of the day, which seemed a little odd to me. I have wondered if (or when) RealPage (RP) and AppFolio would join forces, and as shares prices have come down the potential for M&A in the broader software industry makes sense to me—especially if stronger companies use their stock to buy smaller ones that have sold off, a la Twilio (TWLO) and SendGrid (SEND). I don’t know anything, and I’m not saying we should buy or hold stocks because of that potential; I’m just throwing it out there. Given that we’ve already taken partial profits here I’m inclined to hold for a few days and sell a quarter, or the rest, if the trend doesn’t improve. HOLD 1/2.
A Few Final Comments
As I wrote last week there is a lot of uncertainty out there surrounding interest rates, trade, mid-term elections, GDP growth, the length of this recovery, etc. The market doesn’t like uncertainty and it gets a little crazy because of it. We’ve seen almost all stocks retreat, but we’re starting to see signs of at least a bottoming process, if not the potential for a modest recovery.
It’s too early to know for sure. So we’ll continue to make incremental moves and be relatively conservative. That said, we are investing in small-cap stocks here which tend to move more to the upside, and the downside. That double-edged sword can be tough to handle at times.
But we own good companies and we’ll continue to do just fine over the long-term by making incremental moves. That means averaging in and out. Don’t try to time things perfectly.
We have Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF) reporting later this week. And Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) was up 10% today. Management has given us an earnings date of next Monday. Volume in that stock continues to climb after the IPO lockup expiration, and it looks good. But average in!
Finally, the next issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential comes out this Friday and the stock I’m likely to go with continues to look good, even in the face of a neurotic market.