I’m going to keep it short today as we enter the last of our holiday-shortened weeks.
The focus, as always, continues to be adding a few positions to the mix. I’ll be adding a new position in WFC this week with the hope of adding at least one, if not two, more underlying stocks to the portfolio as we start out 2023.
But, as we enter the first week of the year, let us not forget how wonderful 2022 was for our Income Trader service. We ended the year with 24 out of 27 winning trades for a 40% cumulative return. As with my other options-based services, given the market environment this past year, I couldn’t be more pleased with the results in my first year here at Cabot. And here’s hoping 2023 offers us even more income opportunities.
Current Positions
| Open Date | Ticker | Stock Price (open) | Stock Price (current) | Strategy | Trade | Open Price | Current Price | Delta |
| Income Wheel Portfolio - Open Trades | ||||||||
| 12/19/2022 | BITO | $10.31 | $10.43 | Covered Call | January 20, 2023 11.5 Call | $0.30 | $0.12 | 0.2 |
| 11/17/2022 | WFC | $46.02 | $41.29 | Selling Puts | December 30, 2022 44 Put | $1.02 | $3.05 | 0.94 |
| 12/8/2022 | PFE | $51.60 | $51.24 | Selling Puts | January 13, 2023 49 Put | $0.62 | $0.28 | 0.19 |
| 11/29/2022 | GDX | $28.03 | $28.66 | Selling Puts | January 20, 2023 26 Put | $0.87 | $0.22 | 0.14 |
| 11/29/2022 | KO | $62.23 | $63.61 | Selling Puts | January 20, 2023 60 Put | $0.84 | $0.17 | 0.11 |
| Income Trades Portfolio - Open Trades | ||||||||
| Open Date | Close Date | Ticker | Strategy | Trade | Open Price | Closed Price | Profit | Return |
| Income Wheel Portfolio - Closed Trades | ||||||||
| 6/3/2022 | 7/8/2022 | PFE | Short Put | July 8, 2022 50 Put | $0.65 | $0.00 | $0.65 | 1.30% |
| 6/10/2022 | 7/15/2022 | GDX | Short Put | July 15, 2022 29 Put | $0.66 | Assigned at $29 | ($2.75) | -9.48% |
| 6/10/2022 | 7/15/2022 | BITO | Short Put | July 15, 2022 16 Put | $0.82 | Assigned at $16 | ($2.09) | -13.10% |
| 6/22/2022 | 7/21/2022 | WFC | Short Put | July 29, 2022 35 Put | $0.80 | $0.02 | $0.78 | 2.23% |
| 6/30/2022 | 8/10/2022 | KO | Short Put | August 19, 2022 57.5 Put | $0.70 | $0.03 | $0.67 | 1.20% |
| 7/21/2022 | 8/10/2022 | WFC | Short Put | August 19, 2022 39 Put | $0.46 | $0.04 | $0.42 | 1.08% |
| 7/18/2022 | 8/17/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | August 19, 2022 16 Call | $0.50 | $0.03 | $0.47 | 3.59% |
| 7/18/2022 | 8/17/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | August 19, 2022 28 Call | $0.63 | $0.05 | $0.57 | 2.22% |
| 7/11/2022 | 8/23/2022 | PFE | Short Put | August 19, 2022 50 Put | $1.00 | Assigned at $50 | $0.21 | 0.43% |
| 8/17/2022 | 9/7/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | September 23, 2022 16.5 Call | $0.55 | $0.03 | $0.52 | 4.00% |
| 8/17/2022 | 9/7/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | September 23, 2022 28 Call | $0.59 | $0.07 | $0.52 | 2.03% |
| 8/23/2022 | 9/23/2022 | PFE | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 50 Call | $1.50 | $0.09 | $1.41 | 2.82% |
| 8/10/2022 | 9/23/2022 | KO | Short Put | September 23, 2022 60 Put | $0.62 | Assigned at $60 | ($0.78) | -1.30% |
| 8/10/2022 | 9/23/2022 | WFC | Short Put | September 23, 2022 41 Put | $0.61 | Assigned at $41 | $0.02 | 0.05% |
| 9/7/2022 | 10/17/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 14 Call | $0.40 | $0.03 | $0.37 | 2.60% |
| 9/7/2022 | 10/17/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 26 Call | $0.70 | $0.04 | $0.66 | 2.50% |
| 9/26/2022 | 10/21/2022 | WFC | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 41 Call | $1.30 | Called away at $41 | $1.89 | 4.67% |
| 9/26/2022 | 10/21/2022 | KO | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 60 Call | $0.70 | $0.00 | $0.70 | 1.20% |
| 9/23/2022 | 1028/2022 | PFE | Covered Call | October 28, 2022 47 Call | $0.56 | Called away at $47 | $3.49 | 7.43% |
| 10/17/2022 | 11/17/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | November 25, 2022 13.5 Call | $0.38 | $0.03 | $0.35 | 2.60% |
| 10/25/2022 | 11/17/2022 | WFC | Short Put | November 25, 2022 43 Put | $0.96 | $0.07 | $0.89 | 2.00% |
| 10/17/2022 | 11/25/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | November 25, 2022 26 Call | $0.58 | Called away at $26 | $1.09 | 3.87% |
| 10/25/2022 | 11/25/2022 | KO | Covered Call | November 25, 2022 60 Call | $0.80 | Called away at $60 | $2.20 | 3.75% |
| 11/3/2022 | 12/8/2022 | PFE | Selling Puts | December 16, 2022 45 Put | $1.08 | $0.02 | $1.06 | 2.36% |
| 11/17/2022 | 12/19/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | December 30, 2022 12 Call | $0.45 | $0.04 | $0.41 | 3.42% |
| Income Trades Portfolio - Closed Trades | ||||||||
| 7/26/2022 | 8/17/2022 | JPM | Short Put | September 16, 2022 100 Put | $1.22 | $0.16 | $1.06 | 1.10% |
Weekly High-Probability Mean Reversion Indicator
Here are the various levels I use to determine if an ETF is in an oversold or overbought state.
| Very Overbought | greater than or equal to 80.1 |
| Overbought | 60.1 to 80.0 |
| Neutral | 40.1 to 60 |
| Oversold | 20.1 to 40.0 |
| Very Oversold | less than or equal to 20.0 |
Each week I also include the current implied volatility (IV) and IV Rank. I look for an IV rank above 40, preferably higher.
ETF Watchlist – Weekly Trade Ideas
| Ticker Symbol | IV | IV Rank | HPMR Oversold - Overbought | |
| ARK Innovation ETF | ARKK | 57.1 | 27 | 40.6 |
| Proshares Bitcoin ETF | BITO | 59.4 | 2.6 | 45.8 |
| iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | EEM | 22.5 | 18.4 | 44.9 |
| iShares MSCI EAFE | EFA | 20.4 | 34.9 | 45.2 |
| iShares MSCI Mexico ETF | EWW | 24.9 | 21.1 | 31.2 |
| iShares MSCI Brazil | EWZ | 39.3 | 36.9 | 46.5 |
| iShares China Large-Cap | FXI | 38.6 | 31.3 | 50.9 |
| Vaneck Gold Miners | GDX | 39.2 | 36.7 | 47 |
| SPDR Gold | GLD | 15.9 | 8.8 | 63.6 |
| iShares High-Yield | HYG | 12.8 | 28.1 | 42.7 |
| SPDR Regional Bank | KRE | 26.5 | 16.8 | 51.5 |
| iShares Silver Trust | SLV | 33.0 | 31.9 | 58.6 |
| iShares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | 22.8 | 45.1 | 27 |
| United States Oil Fund | USO | 40.5 | 15.3 | 67.6 |
| Proshares Ultra VIX Short | UVXY | 96.9 | 8.5 | 37.2 |
| Barclays S&P 500 VIX ETN | VXX | 68.6 | 9.9 | 38.1 |
| SPDR Biotech | XLB | 24.9 | 43.1 | 38.2 |
| SPDR Energy Select | XLE | 33.7 | 29.2 | 56.6 |
| SPDR Financials | XLF | 23.8 | 10.4 | 51.5 |
| SPDR Utilities | XLU | 21.3 | 25.7 | 46.1 |
| SPDR Retail | XRT | 35.0 | 16.1 | 45.4 |
Stock Watchlist – Weekly Trade Ideas
| Ticker Symbol | IV | IV Rank | HPMR Oversold - Overbought | |
| Bank of America | BAC | 34.9 | 24.7 | 57.7 |
| Bristol-Myers | BMY | 25.2 | 52.4 | 20.6 |
| Citigroup | C | 37.3 | 30.1 | 56.2 |
| Costco | COST | 27.8 | 16.2 | 32.3 |
| Cisco Systems | CSCO | 25.9 | 16.1 | 47.8 |
| CVS Health | CVS | 25.0 | 24.8 | 27 |
| Dow Inc. | DOW | 35.0 | 35.5 | 48.9 |
| Duke Energy | DUK | 21.6 | 18.5 | 57.8 |
| Ford | F | 47.7 | 28.8 | 42.7 |
| Gilead Sciences | GILD | 27.6 | 25.9 | 51.3 |
| General Motors | GM | 44.2 | 29.5 | 34.1 |
| Intel | INTC | 48.7 | 55.2 | 43.8 |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 21.1 | 48.8 | 46.2 |
| Coca-Cola | KO | 18.9 | 15.6 | 51.2 |
| Altria Group | MO | 23.1 | 17.5 | 38.6 |
| Merck | MRK | 22.4 | 26.2 | 54.9 |
| Marvell Tech. | MRVL | 55.6 | 36.7 | 40.2 |
| Morgan Stanley | MS | 35.8 | 35 | 36.9 |
| Micron | MU | 46 | 20.1 | 37.9 |
| Oracle | ORCL | 26.7 | 16.9 | 59.8 |
| Pfizer | PFE | 27.1 | 20.9 | 46.9 |
| Paypal | PYPL | 52.4 | 28.1 | 56 |
| Starbucks | SBUX | 32.2 | 26.3 | 48.3 |
| AT&T | T | 30.2 | 43.5 | 48 |
| Verizon | VZ | 29.3 | 50.9 | 71.1 |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance | WBA | 37.3 | 46.2 | 19.3 |
| Wells Fargo | WFC | 35.7 | 24.4 | 39.4 |
| Walmart | WMT | 21.7 | 19.3 | 32.7 |
| Exxon-Mobil | XOM | 31.8 | 18.8 | 62.9 |
Weekly Trade Discussion: Open Positions
Income Wheel Portfolio: Open Positions
Covered Call: BITO January 20, 2023, 11.5 Calls
Original trade published on 12-19-2022 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We’ve managed to sell and lock in a total of $3.04 worth of premium, or more than 15%, over five trades since introducing this position to the Income Wheel Portfolio. We were assigned the stock for $16 back on July 15, 2022, so most of our premium has come during the covered call phase of our strategy. Our current break-even stands at 12.99.
Lastly, with BITO trading for 10.43, our January 20, 2023, 11.5 calls that we sold for $0.30 on December 19 are currently worth $0.12. I plan on holding until expiration or until we can buy back our 11.5 calls for $0.05 or less.
Selling Puts: PFE January 13, 2023, 49 Puts
Original trade published on 12-8-2022 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We’ve managed to lock in $4.68, or 8.60% worth of premium, since introducing PFE to the portfolio. Our break-even currently stands at 46.38.
Two weeks ago, with PFE trading for 51.60, we sold the 49 puts for $0.62. At the time, the probability of the 49 puts closing out of the money was 72.94%.
Now, with PFE trading at 51.24, the probability of success stands at 80.55%, and the price of our 49 puts is $0.28. As it stands, our PFE position is in good shape.
Selling Puts: GDX January 20, 2022, 26 Puts
Original trade published on 11-29-2022 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: A few weeks ago, we sold the January 20, 2023, 26 puts for $0.87.
Now, with GDX trading for 28.66, the probability of success stands at 88.40%, and the price of the 26 puts sits at $0.14. So far, so good!
Selling Puts: KO January 20, 2022, 60 Puts
Original trade published on 11-29-2022 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: A few weeks ago we sold the January 20, 2023, 60 puts for $0.84.
Now, with KO trading for 63.61, the probability of success stands at 90.99%, and the price of the 60 puts sits at $0.11. Like our GDX puts, we are early in the expiration cycle, so there isn’t much to do at the moment other than to allow time decay to work its magic.
The next Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader issue will be published on
January 9, 2023.