Every so often, I get a question from a subscriber about a price move in one of my micro-cap recommendations.
The first thing that I do is check the trading volume. If the trading volume is low (think under 1,000 shares), you can ignore the price move. In this scenario, someone probably came into the market and entered a buy or sell “market” order. This means that they wanted to buy shares at the “market” price. The problem (or opportunity!) with micro caps is that there is such low volume that a “market” buy or sell order can move the market significantly.
There may not be enough open orders in the market to fulfill the order near the current price so the stock will spike or drop precipitously to fulfill the order.
This is why I always recommend using limit orders when buying or selling micro caps.
As I’ve talked about before, I love Twitter. You can get such good information about stocks and market there.
This week, I want to include a chart that I got from Mark Minervini on Twitter:
If the market rallies into the election, it would suggest that Trump will get re-elected. The polls are obviously indicating a Biden win, but the polls were not correct in 2016 so it will be interesting to watch what the market tells us.
This week was relatively quiet in terms of news for our recommendations, and we have no changes to the portfolio. I did want to highlight MamaMancini’s Holdings (MMMB). The stock has been weak since the company reported earnings on September 14. While the quarter didn’t exceed to the upside, revenue did grow 28% and EPS grew 104%. Not too shabby. Trading at 13.9x earnings, MamaMancini’s looks compelling.
We recently recorded our September webinar and the replay is available here. The next issue of Cabot Micro-Cap Insider will be published on Wednesday, October 14. If you have any questions that you want me to address, feel free to send me an email at rich@cabotwealth.com.
Changes This Week
No changes.
Updates
Greystone Logistics (GLGI) has pulled back with the market and looks attractive, especially with the recent insider buying. Recently, CEO and President Warren Kruger disclosed that he purchased an additional 1,000 shares of GLGI in the open market at a price of $1.02. In total, Kruger owns over 30% of the company. As such, we are well aligned as we both will benefit from continued strong operational performance and stock price increases. Greystone reported earnings recently for its fiscal year ended May 31. Quarterly revenue was $18.3 million, down 13% from a year ago. In its press release, the company noted that demand from customers continues to grow. Its biggest challenge is maintaining an adequate workforce as many employees have opted to stay at home for protection from COVID-19. The company reported $0.06 of GAAP EPS that was helped by an unusual tax benefit. On a normalized basis, the company generated $0.03 in EPS, consistent with my expectations. Thus, in the last fiscal year, the company generated $0.12 of EPS and is trading at 7.7x earnings. This is too cheap for a company that has historically grown revenue at a 20%+ CAGR and just grew EPS 140%. Buy under 1.10.
HopTo Inc (HPTO) was flat on the week. In the company’s most recent quarter, revenue grew 49%. Quarterly revenue growth is very lumpy so I’m not going to get too excited, but it’s good to see that year-to-date revenue is up 7%. Here’s my current thinking on hopTo’s valuation. In the first six months of 2019, hopTo generated $389.9k of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), or $779.8k annualized. I think a 12x multiple is fair, which works out to a $9.4MM enterprise value for these cash flows. This arguably is a cheap multiple for a software company, but the company is tiny and I’m not convinced it really has a sustainable competitive advantage. Next, we can add the value of hopTo’s 39 patents, which I value at $2.8MM based on where hopTo has sold other patents. Finally, we can add hopTo’s cash balance of $4.5MM (pro forma for the rights offering). Add it all up and you get a fair market cap of $16.65MM, or $0.89 per share. HopTo is currently trading at an EV/EBIT multiple of 6.4x. This is too cheap. To put it in perspective, the software and internet industry trades at an average EV/EBIT multiple of 55.8x. Buy under 0.55.
Liberated Syndication (LSYN) was flat on the week. Recently, there have been several insider purchases. New CFO Richard Heyse has purchased 40,000 shares through several different transactions, while Eric Shahinian (the activist investor) bought an additional ~15,000 shares. In total, Shahinian owns almost 7% of the company. Libsyn recently reported an excellent quarter and hosted a helpful and transparent conference call. In the second quarter, revenue grew by 11.4%. Podcast hosting grew 11.1% while website hosting grew 14.3%. I was a little surprised that podcast revenue didn’t grow more strongly, but management commented that podcast listening has been down due to less commuting time. Nonetheless, I expect podcast listening and Libsyn podcast revenue to reaccelerate over time. Buy under 3.75.
MamaMancini’s Holdings (MMMB) has pulled back since reporting earnings on September 14, but I think the share price weakness is a buying opportunity. In the most recent quarter, revenue growth of 28% was very impressive. Even more impressive, EPS grew 104% to $0.02 as the company continues to leverage its fixed costs. One area of weakness was in gross margins, which were lower than expected due to higher beef prices, but management commentary in the press release suggests that this pressure is started to dissipate. MamaMancini’s continues to execute well and the investment case remains on track. It has historically grown revenue at a 24% CAGR yet only trades at a P/E of 13.9x. Management owns over 50% of the stock, ensuring that incentives are aligned. Further, the company has a clean balance sheet. Buy under 2.00.
Medexus Pharma (MEDXF) was down slightly this week but continues to look attractive. In its most recent quarter, Medexus reported revenue growth of 71%. The company generated $4.1 million of free cash flow in the quarter, or $16.4 million annualized. As such, MEDXF is currently trading at a price to free cash flow multiple of 3.4x. On an EV/Revenue basis, MEDXF trades at 0.8x while slower growing peers trade at 3.7x. This is a good stock to average up in as the company continues to execute yet remains undervalued by the market. Buy under 3.50.
NamSys Inc. (NMYSF) has come back down a bit, rewarding patient investors despite no news on the week. NanSys is a Canadian micro-cap software-as-a-service company that caters to the cash processing and logistics niche. There was no news during the week. It has historically grown revenue and earnings at a compound annual growth rate of 20%+ yet only trades at 22x 2019 earnings. It has a pristine balance sheet with significant cash and no debt, and insiders own over 40% of the company, ensuring strong alignment. Buy under 0.80.
P10 Holdings (PIOE) was flat on the week. In August, the company announced a transformative acquisition, and the stock has rallied sharply. It will be acquiring TrueBridge Capital Partners, a venture capital firm with $3.3BN in assets under management. TrueBridge’s strategy is to invest in micro and venture funds. P10 holdings is paying $159MM for the acquisition. To pay for the deal, P10 is issuing convertible preferred debt that will yield 1% and has the right to convert into P10 stock at a conversion price of 3.30 (PIOE’s share price was 2.58 before the deal was announced). Pro forma for this deal, P10 expects to generate $55MM in EBITDA on a run rate basis by the end of 2020. As such, the stock is trading at 13.0x EBITDA. This isn’t a dirt-cheap valuation, but it remains reasonable. P10’s most comparable company is Hamilton Lane, which trades at 30x forward EBITDA. Nonetheless, given the stock’s sharp increase, I recently moved my rating to Hold. Hold.
Riviera Resources (RVRA) was flat on the week. In August, the company announced that it has reached an agreement to sell Blue Mountain, its midstream business, to Citizen Energy for a price of $111 million. The sale price is a premium to what was implied by RVRA’s share price ahead of the sale but is nonetheless disappointing. Over the past three years, Riviera has spent over $300 million building out the midstream asset and so the sale price is at a large discount to replacement value. After all sales close, Riviera should have ~$134 million, or ~2.31 per share, to distribute to shareholders. I expect almost all net proceeds to be distributed by year end. Given my estimate of liquidation value, I believe it makes sense to buy the stock below 1.85 as it would imply a 25% return to liquidation. Buy under 1.85.
U.S. Neurological Holdings (USNU) was flat on the week. The company recently reported a solid quarter. While revenue declined by 28% due to hospital procedures being delayed, the company continued to generate strong cash flow, and expects operations to return to normal soon. Currently, the company has $2.0 million ($0.26 per share) of cash and no debt on its balance sheet. U.S. Neurological Holdings operates as a holding company in the United States. It is engaged in providing medical treatment and diagnostic services that include stereotactic radiosurgery centers, utilizing gamma knife technology, and holds interests in radiological treatment facilities. Buy under 0.25.
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Buy means accumulate shares at or around the current price.
Hold means just that; hold what you have. Don’t buy, or sell, shares.
Sell means the original reasons for buying the stock no longer apply, and I recommend exiting the position.
Sell a Half means it’s time to take partial profits. Sell half (or whatever portion feels right to you) to lock in a gain, and hold on to the rest until another ratings change is issued.
Disclosure: Rich Howe owns shares in GLGI, HPTO, LSYN, MEDXF, PIOE, and RVRA. Rich will only buy shares after he has shared his recommendation with Cabot Micro-Cap Insider members and will follow his rating guidelines.