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Cabot Growth Investor Issue: May 29, 2025

The market has handled itself well during the past couple of weeks, consolidating normally, with our intermediate-term indicators still positive, which is all to the good. Still, leadership remains somewhat lacking and, while coming close, our Cabot Trend Lines are still negative, so we’re content to take things step by step while waiting for more institutional-quality names to get going. Tonight, we are extending our line a bit more, but will hold onto a 36% cash position and want to see added upside confirmation before we put too much more money to work.

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So Far, So Good—but Still Some Proving to Do

Let’s say your football team is down by four points with a couple of minutes left—and they unexpectedly recover a forced fumble on their side of the field. And then, over the next few plays, they quickly march down to the opponent’s 20 yard line, within range of the winning touchdown. Is all of that good and exciting? Heck yeah! But has the team actually won the game? Obviously not—there’s still some work to do.

That’s pretty much how we’ve been viewing the market during the past couple of weeks. When looking at the evidence, things have pretty followed a bullish script, improving on a step-by-step basis during the past two months. First, the indexes held the lows, then we saw some blastoff indicators flash (including the Three Day Thrust), then came buy signals from our intermediate-term market timing idnicators and, while we’ve seen a bunch of eye-catching headlines of late (U.S. debt downgrade, more tariff shenanigans), the market has digested the recent upmove nicely while the aforementioned indicators remain clearly positive.

That said, there’s still some proving to do out there. From a top-down perspective, we’d note that our Cabot Trend Lines—which is our most reliable indicator, keeping us on the right side of major market trends—fell just short of a buy signal last week, which means it’ll need another two weeks (best case) to speak up. Meanwhile, the major indexes are still stuck below lots of resistance after big runs, and when it comes to individual stocks, there remain relatively few (not zero, but not a ton, either) institutional-quality growth names that are in new high ground. Sure, there’s some thinner stuff and speculative things moving, but the names that big investors traffic in generally look good (moving nicely off their lows) but haven’t decisively broken out yet, and we’ve seen that from stocks we own and have had on our watch list.

Again, that’s not predictive, but just a read of where things stand today. When we look at the big picture, we like the setup of the evidence we’ve written about of late (panic selling at the bottom, dour sentiment, unusual strength off the lows, etc.) and think leadership is likely to kick into gear. In fact, we have seen a handful of names get going during the past couple of weeks, and as they’ve done so, we’ve hopped onboard. We’re doing that again tonight, averaging up on one recent purchase and starting a half-sized stake in one liquid name that’s broken out.

What to Do Now

Even so, we’d like to see much more of that kind of action, with some of the many setups out there lifting off while the indexes do the same. In the meantime, we’ll continue our program of gradually extending our line if and as new names get going. In the Model Portfolio, we averaged up in ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO) and started a half-sized stake in Axon Enterprise (AXON) last week; tonight, we’ll fill out that position in AXON while buying a half-sized position in Snowflake (SNOW), which will still leave us with around 36% in cash. We’ll also place Uber (UBER) on Hold given today’s news-driven dip. Details below.

CURRENT RECOMMENDATIONS

The market exhaled a bit last week after a spate of negative-ish news items hit the wires (U.S. debt downgrade, rise in long-term Treasury rates, threats to hike E.U. tariffs), but the nature of the dip has been relatively normal—we did see some elevated new low readings, but other than that, our indicators took the retreat in stride, and most leading and potential leading stocks did as well.

To be fair, the action this week has been a bit disjointed (some areas doing well, but a lot of the market is still consolidating), so the near-term market direction still looks like a coin flip, and while the picture has been improving, there’s still not a ton of institutional-quality leadership—there’s some, but to this point, a lot of the thinner and smaller names have been the ones moving.

But that’s not to downplay the improvement in the evidence we’ve seen in recent weeks, and the proper, normal action the market has displayed over the past two weeks. Tonight, then, we’ll extend our line a bit more, averging up in Axon (AXON) and starting a position in Snowflake (SNOW) after its earnings-induced liftoff. That said, we still have 36% in cash, and while we could do some more buying, we’d like to see more names we own and are watching really get moving to draw us into a heavily-invested stance.

StockNo. of SharesPortfolio WeightingsPrice BoughtDate BoughtPrice on 5/29/25ProfitRating
Axon Enterprise (AXON)2035%7255/23/257351%Buy Another Half
GE Aerospace (GE)1,36211%2165/8/2524413%Buy
Palantir (PLTR)1,9048%328/16/24123283%Hold
ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO)3,36210%885/13/25891%Buy
Rubrik (RBRK)1,7285%855/15/259512%Buy a Half
Snowflake (SNOW)------New Buy a Half
Take Two Interactive (TTWO)6585%2244/25/252251%Hold
Toast (TOST)3,3045%445/13/2542-5%Buy a Half
Uber (UBER)1,6725%885/13/2584-4%Hold
CASH$1,367,08846%

Axon Enterprise (AXON)—A big part of market analysis is identifying unusual action, which can often hint to big demand (or supply) that results in the stock making a big move. Applying that to AXON, this stock has every right to correct deeply and take many months to consolidate its big gains from the past couple of years—and especially from last August into November, when shares more than doubled. But while they did get hit with everything else during the correction, shares held long-term support and have stormed back to new highs, which is very encouraging. We think a big reason why is the steady slate of new products being announced—while Tasers, body and dash cameras and Axon Evidence (managing and sharing all the video online) remain key, newer offerings like cloud dispatch services, video and automatic license plate reading technology and its AI items (DraftOne is off to a very strong start, while Assistant sounds enticing, with automatic translation and policy answers in the field) should help drive growth. We started a half-sized stake last Friday, and the stock is up since then despite today’s wobble. It’s a bit extended and could shake out some more, but we like the action and, if the market continues higher, believe AXON can continue to perform. We’ll fill out our position, adding another half-sized stake (5% of the account) with a mental stop in the 630 area. BUY ANOTHER HALF

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GE Aerospace (GE)—GE Aerospace is off to a nice start for us, showing very solid power as institutions start and build positions. Of course, the catalyst here is a steady, strong growth outlook that should carry on for many years, led by the overall cycle for jet building, though the firm itself has been busy on the news front of late, inking a deal with Qatar Airways for a whopping 400-plus engines in the years ahead as part of that company’s big deal signing a couple of weeks ago, while Ethiopian Airlines signed up for 11 engines to power new Boeing 787s; both deals come with service contracts, which will lead to years of recurring revenue. Moreover, the CEO said this week that supply chain improvements should allow GE to deliver 15% to 20% more engines this year—combined with a pick-up in production from Boeing (which itself looks like a solid turnaround situation), there are plenty of reasons for the stock’s strength. Of course, we don’t expect the straight-up move to continue forever—this isn’t really a go-go name, with the attraction being a very long runway of reliable service revenue that should see free cash flow (and dividends and share buybacks) glide higher over time. We’ll stay on Buy—if you own some, hang on, and if not, we advise starting small and/or looking for dips of a few points. BUY

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Palantir (PLTR)—After a huge comeback from its lows that actually saw the stock tag virgin turf, PLTR has pulled back a bit as its 25-day line (now near 120) catches up—normal action thus far. There’s been increased grumblings out there about the valuation, and we’re not going to argue the point that Palantir’s valuation is in nosebleed territory—but great growth stocks often have big P/E ratios and the like because the prospects are so bright. As we wrote when we originally recommended the stock last year, the big idea here is that Palantir could effectively become the Microsoft of the AI age, meaning its platform becomes the system that most big (and many mid-sized) firms standardize on to deliver real, meaningful efficiency and productivity gains, especially as AI and language models become more and more powerful. Granted, business overseas is growing just modestly, but there’s no question many leading U.S firms and government agencies are stampeding to Palantir’s door and signing huge deals thanks to the results they’re seeing. Back to the stock, it’s obviously not in the first inning of its overall advance, but its relative resilience in March and April and big comeback bode well. If you don’t own any and want to nibble, we won’t argue with you, but officially we’re going to again stay on Hold, but a strong-volume upmove from here could kick off the next leg up—and have us restoring our Buy rating. HOLD

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ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO)—We can’t say the market is completely out of the woods, as most major indexes are still stuck below resistance from the December-February period, and while they came close, our long-term Cabot Trend Lines were unable to generate a fresh buy signal last week. Even so, just about all the other evidence out there is encouraging, from our intermediate-term market timing indicators (Tides, Aggression Index, Two-Second Indicator) to secondary factors (Three Day Thrust, sentiment is just now picking up from low levels), and the recent consolidation has looked very much under control so far despite a bunch of potentially scary headlines. Don’t get us wrong, we’re flexible, and a fresh Cabot Tides sell signal (a move into the upper 70s or so on the SSO) could have us selling some or all the position. But while there’s risk down to there, we think the potential reward is many times that if the market is at the start of a fresh, sustained advance that could carry on for months. We filled out our position last Friday—hold on if you’re in, and if not, we’re OK taking a swing at SSO around here. BUY

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Rubrik (RBRK)—Cybersecurity is probably the top (and, frankly, one of the only for now) leading growth areas of the market today, and while a few names look good, Rubrik is our favorite given its leading position in a “new” area of the sector—resilience, which focuses not just on prevention but also recovery, aiming to cut the cost/headaches of cyber breaches by allowing a firm to reclaim its data and information far more quickly (sometimes within hours). (The firm recently announced a new Identity Resilience offering, stepping into that big market.) The stock is off to a great start for us, and normally we’d have quickly averaged up given the persistent strength—but RBRK and many peers are all reporting earnings this week and next; so far, one name (Okta (OKTA), which was acting well, got hit hard after its results, though it didn’t affect others in the group. Zscaler (ZS) is otu tonight and CrowdStrike (CRWD) early next week, but Rubrik itself will release results next Thursday (June 7). Given the recent run, some sort of post-earnings wobble of a few points could be completely normal and set up a chance to add shares, but as always, we’ll simply take it as it comes. If you bought a half-sized stake with us, sit tight and let’s see what earnings brings. If you want to buy ahead of the report, keep it small and, ideally, aim for dips. BUY A HALF

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Snowflake (SNOW)—For years, Snowflake has had the appeal of a blue chip “big data” outfit, a company with a unique data sharing (and protection) platform that can make it far easier for clients to access and make something of their enormous, ever-growing mounds of data. Indeed, Snowflake is able to house everything online (no need for on-premise servers, etc.), can handle any type of data (structured, unstructured or semi-structured, the latter of which is increasingly big for AI workloads) or format, and then automatically ramp up or down computing power based on a client’s needs (to keep performance up even if, say, two or three different groups are running queries from the same firm at the same time—Snowflake charges mostly based on consumption, not necessarily subscriptions). It’s always been a great idea, and growth has been solid for years, but the stock has never really had much of a sustained run since its IPO in late 2020, first due to a crazy valuation (shares were up at 400 during the 2021 boonm) and red ink, and more recently due to fears of slowing growth. However, now we think investor perception could be changing for the better as big enterprises standardize on Snowflake’s solution in the cloud and AI age (754 of the Global 2000 are customers, including 606 that pay at least $1 million per year to Snowflake), and as growth continues to top expectations. In fiscal Q1 (ending in April), product revenue lifted 26%, earnings were up 71% while free cash flow came in around 60 cents per share, well ahead of reported earnings. Meanwhile, remaining performance obligations (money that’s coming to it in the future based on deals already inked) totaled $6.7 billion, up 34% from a year ago, which has Wall Street thinking mid-20% top-line growth and at least a couple of years of big earnings and cash flow growth are coming. As mentioned above, SNOW is anything but overplayed—it’s actually hit a new post-IPO low last fall!—but the stock showed a massive-volume clue last November and, after getting hit with the market, shares have changed character, running straight up and, last week, gapping to 14-month highs after earnings. There is some old overhead to deal with from early last year, but we think the path of least resistance is up. We’ll start a half-sized (5% of the portfolio) stake here with an initial mental stop in the 170 to 175 are. BUY A HALF

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Take Two Interactive (TTWO)—TTWO has been hit by three waves of selling this month, the most severe coming after the delay of Grand Theft Auto VI (shares dipped to the 50-day line before finding support), followed by a big reversal after earnings and, last week, a good-sized share offering whacked the stock—and because of all that, we placed the stock on Hold. That said, while down, the stock isn’t yet out: While it’s been underperforming since the GTA announcement, shares have essentially meandered sideways in a tight range, probably because even with the delay, business here is supposed to perk up solidly in the quarters ahead (the top brass expects record bookings this year) and then boom next year. Our patience isn’t limitless, and a drop into the 210 area or an inability to get going for a while longer would probably have us moving on, but we’re comfortable hanging on to our half-sized stake … though we’re focusing new buying on stronger situations. HOLD

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Toast (TOST)—After a big earnings gap and upside follow through, TOST has pulled back three and a half points on low volume, which is normal to see—though, like many titles, now we’d like to see the post-earnings strength resume. The company has been quiet on the news front since the early-May earnings report, which revealed not just steady expansion among its core small- and mid-sized restaurant cohort, but increasing traction in other areas like enterprises (it inked its largest ever deal by hooking up with Applebee’s in Q1; it also signed up Topgolf), food/beverage retailers and international locations—all of which is keeping recurring revenue growth brisk and producing big gains in EBITDA and free cash flow. A drop into the upper 30s would be iffy and call into question whether TOST has really changed character after years of mostly choppy action. But right now, we’re holding what we have, and ideally shares can hold in here near-term and then thrust higher; such action would likely kick off a fresh upmove and have us filling out our position. Sit tight if you’re already in with a half-sized stake, and if not, we’re OK grabbing a few shares around here. BUY A HALF

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Uber (UBER)—UBER’s business remains in fine shape and the thought was (and the stock’s action in recent weeks suggested) big investors were turning their attention back to the company’s rapid, reliable sales and free cash flow growth story that includes ride sharing, delivery and newer, ancillary businesses—Uber announced recently that it’s expanding its in-ride advertising business to New York City; its ad business both in-ride and on the app reached a $1.5 billion run rate in Q1 and is growing quickly. However, today’s action is a definite downer: Last night, Tesla said it would launch its Robotaxi service (on a very limited basis) in Austin on June 12, raising the old fears that autonomous driving will take a big chunk of Uber’s business and hitting the stock very hard today. As with most of our recent purchases, we started with a small (5%) position here and if the stock continues lower, we’ll keep the loss reasonable—but while sharp, the recent pullback isn’t abnormal given the April/early-May strength, so if buyers can step up soon we still think the stock can have a sustained run. That said, we do think it prudent to switch to Hold and see how this plays out, with a mental stop down toward 80. HOLD

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Watch List

  • Amer Sports (AS 37): AS is an interesting outfit, as it’s actually a conglomerate of 11 different sports and apparel brands, including things like Louisville Slugger and EVO Shield in the U.S. But the big sellers are in Asia, which is leading to very nice top-line and exploding bottom-line growth—and the stock just gapped to new highs on its heaviest-ever volume.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV 107): CRWV has gone vertical over the past couple of weeks and it could easily go higher near-term. We’re not chasing it here, but our thinking is that the stock’s next rest period (not just a day or two but a couple of weeks or more) should set up a solid entry.
  • GE Vernova (GEV 474): GEV has been super-strong even as the market gyrated during the past couple of weeks. There are obviously more speculative power plays (like some nuclear stocks of late), but this looks like the institutional way to play the ever-growing demand for power and electrification. Today saw a bit of weakness, and a couple more days of that could reveal a lower-risk entry.
  • Insulet (PODD 324): We’re wary of the medical field given the group’s action (which went from very resilient to dour right quick), but PODD certainly looks the part of a winner, with a rapid and reliable growth story thanks to its Omnipod 5 pump. See more below.
  • Life 360 (LIF 63): It’s thinly traded for now, but Life 360 has a great story of keeping and tracking family members (for safety sake), big sales and earnings growth and the stock could be growing up here. See more below.
  • Mosaic (MOS 36): Mosaic remains in a steep uptrend, coming off a bottoming formation after years in the doghouse. A shakeout of two or three points would be tempting.

Other Stocks of Interest

Sea Ltd (SE 161)—Singapore-based Sea Ltd. will probably never be a household name to U.S. investors or consumers, but it’s a huge player in online commerce and games overseas and, increasingly, a big online financial player as well. The company’s Shopee platform has been growing rapidly for years and the leading player in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, and is making inroads in South America (especially Brazil), too. While there were some post-pandemic speedbumps, Shopee’s growth is back on track, albeit at a slower pace, with gross merchandise volume likely rising 20% or so this year, and that’s while costs per order is fading across the board and the firm builds up a nice advertising business (up 50% in Q1), too. Then there’s Monee, which is Sea’s financial services arm, where it provides all sorts of online banking and payment solutions, both on and off the Shoppee platform. In the first quarter, the firm had $5.8 billion of loans outstanding, up a big 76% from the year before, while delinquencies are low (1.1% of loans) and falling even as the platform added more than four million new borrowers. Then there’s Gerena, the online game platform, which is a big driver—its Free Fire game is one world’s most popular game by downloads and daily active users, and after some hiccups years ago, this segment should see at least double-digit bookings growth this year. Probably the most important part here is that, after years of expansion at any cost (red ink), Sea is now gushing money: EBITDA in Q1 leapt 135%, with all three segments showing surging numbers on this metric, while Wall Street sees the bottom line totaling $3.50 per share this year and north of $5 next. SE did have a prolonged recovery during the past couple of years from the bear market depths of 2022, which raises risk, but shares held the 200-day line during the market meltdown this year and have been straight up since, including a big-volume rush to new highs after earnings. Dips of a few points would be tempting.

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Life 360 (LIF 63)—Many may yearn for the old days when parents told their kids to go out and play all day and be back for dinner at 6 pm—but, at least in many parts of the country, that isn’t the case now, with kids having fewer freedoms. Life 360 has a great story that plays into that trend: Its location sharing and item tracking app allows families to know where everyone is (even pets!), be alerted when someone arrives or leaves a destination (like soccer practice), message everyone via the app and even get notifications if there’s been an accident (certain subscriptions offer emergency dispatch services built in). It’s a simple idea, but Life 360 is the hands-down leader in the field, and demand has been overwhelming—it’s the 13th most popular app overall, and partly thanks to its freemium model it has a whopping 84 million users worldwide (just over half of that in the U.S.), with engagement very impressive (one in seven smartphone users in the U.S. has Life 360, and they average opening the app five times per day!). Paid users, who sign up for one of three levels of service (from $8 to $25 per month) get more features, of course, though a single subscription allows an entire family to join (called a circle; the average circle has 3.3 members), which has been a big driver of growth. In Q1, sales rose 32% while annualized recurring revenue was up 38% as paying circles rose 26% and revenue per circle was up 8% (prices ticked higher and users are signing up for more comprehensive plans). Encouragingly, the bottom line has been in the black for three quarters and should boom from here (70 cents per share in 2025, $1.16 in 2026 are the current estimates; EBITDA margins are already 15%). Even more enticing is that Life 360 has many other avenues to profit from, both product-wise (senior tracking could be big) and revenue streams (it’s quickly building an advertising and data-sharing stream for its large free user base; sales from those businesses doubled from a year ago in Q1). All in all, the potential is big, and while the stock is still thinly traded, it could be growing up here—after IPO-ing last June, shares rallied nicely before getting hit hard during the market’s correction this year, but LIF has stormed back to new highs, with a massive earnings gap two weeks ago. We’re keeping an eye on it and think this straightforward idea could go far.

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Insulet (PODD 324)—Medical stocks have been a minefield, and with a lot of iffy charts and macro uncertainty (regulations and tariffs), we’re not in a hurry to dive back into the group—but if we do, it’ll likely be with Insulet, which has a long track record of growth and a newer product that’s rapidly grabbing share in a massive market. The firm’s claim to fame is its Omnipod 5 insulin pump (or, as the company calls it, an automated insulin delivery device), which is the first and only tubeless pump in the U.S., offers users a choice of sensor integration (Dexcom or Abbott), can be controlled with a smartphone and, of course, produces great results for patients, with far more time in the normal glucose range. Most important for the business is that Omnipod 5 is approved for both Type 1 (patients two years and up) and Type 2 (18 years old and up) diabetics, making it the only pump in the U.S. approved for the latter. Stepping back, the reason this industry has been in a constant growth mode is just a small fraction of all diabetics use a pump—even in the U.S., only 40% of Type 1s and something like 5% now of Type 2s use a pump, with far smaller percentages seen overseas, so there’s clearly a big untapped market. Insulet has grown revenues at least 20% in nine straight years, and with Omnipod 5, growth has picked up both here and overseas (where it’s launched in six new countries this year alone). In Q1, currency-neutral revenues leapt 30% and EBITDA boomed 50%, while over 30% of new customer starts in the U.S. were Type 2, which tells you the demand that’s out there. From here on out, it’s mostly about management pulling the right levers, especially in terms of international expansion and marketing (the number of prescribing health care professionals was up 20% in Q1). As for the stock, it broke free from a long launching pad in the fall and had a decent run before stalling out and getting pulled down by the market in February and March. But as opposed to most other medical stocks, PODD gapped up beautifully on earnings and has tacked on gains since, with the action very much under control. It’s a lone ranger in its group, but PODD has all of the characteristics of a winner.

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Playing “Off-the-Bottom” Names

The market is an odds game, which is why we like to have as many pieces of the puzzle in our favor when diving into a stock—things like rapid and reliable growth, a unique product or service and a stock that’s trending higher are all qualities that up the chances the stock you picked can morph into a bigger winner.

That said, when it comes to the chart factor, some of it does come down to the market environment—and this environment looks different than the normal correction/recovery process. Usually, names that take overly large hits (generally 40% or more) will bounce at first, but eventually run into a lot of resistance (people who bought higher that want to get out near breakeven), which leads to a very long base-building effort of months or longer. However, sometimes when you see a sharp market break on a general, market-wide fear, the recovery phase will see some former leaders ratchet back up in short order.

That seems to be the case this time around, as we’re seeing more than a few “off-the-bottom” names show enticing action as the market has turned higher. Of course, we still have parameters that, when met, up the chances the stock won’t turn tail—shares should be above longer-term moving averages (40-week line, etc.) and have shown some definitive buying volume (preferably after earnings). Just as important, the story and numbers must remain top-notch, too.

Right now, there are many names that fit this description. One is old friend Wingstop (WING), a name we rode to solid gains in 2023 and it reached higher last year before a very tough seven-month plunge that took the stock down more than 50%. Growth has slowed some here but remains solid for this kind of outfit (sales up 17% in Q1, EBITDA up 18%), with the underlying cookie-cutter story (store count up 18% in Q1) and store economics (domestic average sales per store up 11%) looking great. After a brief bottoming area, WING has come alive, with the Q1 report bringing in buyers and shares continuing to rally since. Interestingly, the stock has had two prior wipeouts (August 2019 to March 2020, and then September 2021 to May 2022) before resuming its longer-term advance—and this could be No. 3. Like most things, a pullback of a few percent would likely set up a higher-odds entry.

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Another off-the-bottom situation that can be fruitful is with a recent new issue that has a run during the good times but then is clobbered during the market downturn. Because it’s relatively new and because the prior upturn didn’t last for too long, big investors continue to accumulate stakes after the market bottoms.

We think Astera Labs (ALAB), which we’ve been watching for many months, could fit that bill: Shares broke out of a deep post-IPO base in November and ran higher for a couple of months, but sagged from there, with the DeepSeek news in January cracking the uptrend and, of course, shares imploding alongside the tech stocks after that. But ALAB has rallied some since, reclaiming its 200-day line thanks to a solid earnings reaction (three straight days of big-volume buying) as business remains very strong (sales up 144%, earnings up 267% in Q1). We would say that the macro AI demand environment affects perception here, and the century mark could offer near-term resistance, but it looks like the stock’s character has changed.

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There are other examples (like TransMedics (TMDX), another name we have a history with), but the overall point is that this seems to be one of those unusual situations where some stocks that were crushed are able to snap back. We still prefer names closer or out to new high ground, but things like WING or ALAB could provide opportunities if they exhale a bit.

Treasury Rates: More Mixed than the Headlines Say

We’re always going to follow the primary evidence first, but we continue to believe that, after a couple of decades of being a sideshow, the movements in Treasury rates (and, of course, the Federal Reserve’s actions) will be a big factor in the market going ahead. So we’ve obviously been paying attention to the bond market of late, especially as many headlines were declaring that rates hit a new multi-year high.

However, it turns out the picture is far more mixed. The headlines were correct that the very longest-term rate (30-year) did sneak out to a new high recently, and when looking at its rate of change over the past six months (our Power Index; see the bottom panel under the price chart), it’s been in bearish territory (higher than it was six months ago) for a while.

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However, pretty much any other Treasury bond tells a different story—the benchmark 10-year note yield, for instance, is essentially right where it was six months ago (up a smidge), while shorter-term notes (like the 5-year note yield, not shown here) are down from back then.

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The reason we’re writing about this is that, usually on a trend basis, Treasury rates will swim together—and if that happens on the upside, it could cause issues for the market’s rally. At this point, though, the trend in rates across the curve is mixed, which shouldn’t prove to be a big headwind for stocks.

Cabot Market Timing Indicators

The market’s long-term trend hasn’t yet been able to turn up, and growth stock leadership hasn’t completely filled out, so we’re still taking things step by step. But overall, most of the intermediate-term evidence is looking good, and the leaders that are out there are handling themselves well, so we’re continuing to put money to work.

Cabot Trend Lines – Bearish
Our Cabot Trend Lines came this close to a fresh green light last week, but the S&P 500 closed just below its 35-week line—which resets the count, meaning we now need to see two straight weeks of both indexes close their respective moving averages from here (starting with tomorrow’s close). Now, we’re not taking that as a huge rejection, but it does keep the longer-term trend down (or, if you prefer, not up), which remains a headwind for stocks.

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Cabot Tides – Bullish
Our Cabot Tides remains positive, with all five indexes we track (including the NYSE Composite, shown here) clearly above their lower moving averages (which is now the 50-day line). Of course, there’s still resistance to chew through above these levels, and a drop of a few percent could change the trend—but we go with what’s in front of us, and today the intermediate-term trend of the market is pointed up.

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Two-Second Indicator – Positive
Our Two-Second Indicator got a little funky last week during the pullback—the rise in Treasury rates hit the broad market, which caused new lows to flare up for three days, but they’ve returned to low levels this week, which is obviously a good sign. Granted, it’s not the strongest situation we’ve ever seen, but the broad market remains clearly positive.

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The next Cabot Growth Investor issue will be published on June 12, 2025.


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A growth stock and market timing expert, Michael Cintolo is Chief Investment Strategist of Cabot Wealth Network and Chief Analyst of Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader. Since joining Cabot in 1999, Mike has uncovered exceptional growth stocks and helped to create new tools and rules for buying and selling stocks. Perhaps most notable was his development of the proprietary trend-following market timing system, Cabot Tides, which has helped Cabot place among the top handful of market-timing newsletters numerous times.