Cabot Growth Investor Issue: June 26, 2025

Big-Picture Setup in Place

Two weeks ago on this page we wrote: “Near term, things have been a bit quiet lately with little reaction to good news (another U.S.-China trade truce), and the big-cap indexes (which are leading) are back into their December-February range (read: resistance), so we wouldn’t be surprised if something (possibly renewed Middle East tensions?) caused a wobble.” And as chance would have it, a few hours after we sent out the issue, Israel struck Iran, beginning two weeks of back-and-forth attacks, followed by U.S. involvement—and then a quick ceasefire that (at least for now) has been holding.

However, it’s not the news that counts, it’s the market’s reaction to the news—and what’s interesting is that, unlike the wild volatility seen earlier this year on the tariff/negotiation headlines, the market continued its quiet, calm action even as the Middle East and oil prices flared up. That fits into one of our main thoughts as we wrap up a volatile, news-driven first half of 2025: That the past six months (really going back to December) look like one big setup for the market.

After a couple of very good years (the major indexes did great in both 2023 and 2024, while growth stocks enjoyed a big 15-month run), the market usually needs some sort of reset to hike the fear level and reload the cannon of buying pressures. Sometimes that can come from months of listlessness, but this time, we think that’s what the past six months of topping, plunging, rallying back and, recently, tightening up, has been about. Indeed, we’d note that even though the big-cap indexes are back near all-time highs, big-picture sentiment measures—which move slowly and reflect longer-term trends of exposure and optimism/pessimism—are still stuck near multi-year lows, while even things like Investors Intelligence (the grandaddy of weekly surveys) are showing lots of hesitation. (See more on that later in this issue.)

Thus, the bullish overall setup is there, and we remain very optimistic that the market as a whole is on track for plenty of upside when looking out many months. But for growth stocks, the game has recently been about looking for some real strength to develop among individual stocks—last year, for instance, an average of 150 stocks on the NYSE and 40 stocks within the S&P 500 hit new highs each trading day, compared to 55 and 16 so far in 2025 (and similar levels in the past couple of months).

Still, there’s been very little abnormal action (bad breakdowns), so the question has been when the buyers will start to really flex their muscle—and while it hasn’t been overly decisive and there’s still some selling on strength out there, the good news is we saw some fresh strength this week, with more than a few names we watch or own coming under accumulation.

What to Do Now

Overall, then, we continue to lean bullish and see higher prices for the market down the road—but individual growth titles, while good on balance, are trickier. We’ve mostly stood pat for two weeks, though tonight we’re putting some more money to work: We’ll start a new half-sized position (5% stake) in GE Vernova (GEV) and add another 3% stake to Uber (UBER) given its dramatic strength this week. We’re also moving Toast (TOST) to Hold given some wobbles this week. Our cash position will now be around 19%.

CURRENT RECOMMENDATIONS

We’ve been waiting for weeks for the buyers to start flexing their muscles, as most stocks were marking time (often below their peaks from months past) for the past few weeks after great April/May rallies. And we might be seeing some of that starting to happen, with some names we own and are watching percolating a bit … though the sell-on-strength bugaboo is still out there, with most things that tested new highs often attracting some selling.

Even so, the vast majority of top-down evidence looks good, the leaders that have been acting well are still holding up, and a few more names are lifting. Thus, we’re putting a bit more money to work tonight, starting a half-sized stake in GE Vernova (GEV) and averaging up in UBER, leaving us with around 19% on the sideline.

Looking ahead, with 10 total positions in the Model Portfolio, we might have room for another stock or possibly two, but that’s it—we like to keep it relatively concentrated, so most new buying would either come from averaging up in current names or kicking a laggard out and replacing it. Tonight, though, we’ll make the above moves and see how things play out from here.

Axon Enterprise (AXON)—AXON looks like a lot of names out there—strong overall, holding very close to its highs and never falling below even shorter-term moving averages (25-day line is just south of 770) … but it also hasn’t done much since early in the month, with round-number resistance near 800 causing some hesitation. Even so, demand for its core cloud products and newer AI offerings (which are likely leading to larger orders and, of course, a bump in recurring revenue) should remain strong, with the recent wave of unrest possibly boosting the firm’s exposure and causing a pick up in orders. While a near-term shakeout in AXON is always a possibility, the path of least resistance is up. We’ll stay on Buy. BUY

GE Aerospace (GE)— GE had a tedious pullback over a couple of weeks, lowlighted by the uncertainty surrounding the Air India crash, but it’s good to see the stock rebound strongly in recent days, recouping the vast majority of its prior dip. While the investigation into the crash is still ongoing, it doesn’t appear that the industry is thinking there’s any big red flags: At the Paris Air Show (the biggest industry event of the year), GE and its joint ventures secured a whopping $55 billion worth of orders (including associated, long-term service agreements), which certainly keeps the underlying growth story intact. Of course, if the Air India investigation turns up some bad engine-related issues, GE could wobble, but at this point, we’re very pleased with how the stock has acted given the news, with a normal-ish pullback and some good volume on the rally. We’re not saying it will be straight up from here, but with the trend up and business in great shape, we’ll stick with our Buy rating. BUY

GE Vernova (GEV)—Never in a million years would we have thought we’d ever have two companies in the portfolio that were spun off from the former General Electric, but here we are—GE Aerospace is obviously leading in the jet engine production (and servicing!) boom, and Vernova looks like the institutional way to play the power and electrification boom; the CEO of Vernova says “the scale of (electrical) load growth is the largest since the industrial build out post-WWII, but unlike then, the growth is global.” The power business here is led by gas turbines and related service contracts—Vernova is essentially sold out through 2027, with about 20 GW worth of orders the rest of the year, double what the company will be able to produce! The electrification business is growing at an even faster rate, where firms are gobbling up its transformers and switch gear, and both of the above play into a humongous backlog ($123 billion!) which actually grew $2 billion in Q1 despite a pickup in revenue growth. To be fair, this isn’t a rapid top-line growth story, but earnings and free cash flow should glide significantly higher for many years to come as Vernova’s products are gobbled up by power-hungry clients. The stock turned very strong after the market bottom and hesitated a bit this month, but now looks to be resuming its advance—there will be ups and downs, but we’ll start a half-sized stake (5% of the portfolio) here. NEW BUY A HALF

Palantir (PLTR)—PLTR has remained in character, making gradual progress on low volume, with selling and pullbacks usually popping up after a day or two move into new high ground. Nothing has changed with the fundamental story, either—the firm remains the hands-down leader in AI inferencing (inferencing = using an already-trained AI model to actually come up with useful forecasts and advice), with overwhelming demand from U.S. firms and government agencies (where fears of a big brother-type issue, and any political repercussions, seem to have faded). If we do see a high-odds setup (say, a scary pullback of a few days followed by a huge-volume rebound, etc.), we could go back to Buy and even average up—but given nothing here has changed, we’re going to stick with what we’ve been saying for the past few weeks: Officially, we’ll stay on Hold, but if you don’t own any and want to start a small-ish position here or on dips of a few points, we wouldn’t argue with you. HOLD

ProShares S&P 500 Fund (SSO)—The S&P 500 remains in good shape, poking to new recovery highs this week, which of course drove SSO higher as well. As we’ve written elsewhere, we wouldn’t be shocked to see some near-term selling just to shake the tree a bit, but the intermediate-term evidence remains in great shape. The big idea here is owning a leveraged long fund (SSO moves twice the S&P 500 daily, percentage-wise) early in what potentially could be a fresh, multi-month (or longer) bull phase. Indeed, the biggest thing that struck us about the 20% study we mentioned last week (the S&P 500 rallied 20% in two months’ worth of trading, which is very rare) isn’t just the historical returns (up 30% or so a year later) but the times when such a move was seen—basically all at occurred at major bottoms that launched longer-term runs. Thus, if 2025’s tariff-induced panic fits into that category, having an outsized position in something like SSO can pay off nicely over time. Of course, we’re not complacent (a dip into the low 80s would be iffy, at least on an intermediate-term basis), but we advise holding what you own, and we’re OK starting a position here or (preferably) on weakness if you’re not yet in. BUY

Rubrik (RBRK)—RBRK’s post-earnings and post-convertible share offering pullback wasn’t pleasant, but it also wasn’t abnormal, falling about 16% and holding support at the 10-week line. At heart, we’ve remained optimistic, as the story (bolstered by a buyout this week that will allow clients to securely deploy autonomous AI systems), numbers and sector all look great, and with the overall cybersecurity sector looking like one of the strongest growth areas out there. And while it’s not rampaging ahead, we’re encouraged by RBRK’s rebound, with shares seeing some solid volume on the upside. Further upside from here would probably tell us the correction is over ... and likely have us averaging up in our position. But given the entire picture, we’ll wait a bit longer—if you own a small position, sit tight, and if you don’t, we’re OK grabbing some shares here, though we do have a mental stop in the 80 area should things go awry. BUY A HALF

Snowflake (SNOW)—At last week’s Snowflake Summit (an industry conference), Snowflake talked about some interesting offerings and goals. One that caught our eye is the firm’s capabilities in unstructured data, with its system able to get receipt totals from images, grab legal terms and meanings from a PDF and analyze chat transcripts on Zoom or Slack all within the underlying data platform. The firm is also allowing clients to simply order queries and then Snowflake will automatically provide the compute resources necessary and charge them for it (instead of forcing them to sign up for a certain amount of computing power ahead of time). Whatever the exact reason, the stock popped nicely to new highs on good volume earlier this week and remains in fine shape. As with everything else, some near-term wobbles are possible, but it’s looking more and more likely that, after years of meandering, SNOW has changed character for the better. BUY

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)—TTWO has been acting better this month, lifting off a kiss of the 10-week line around Memorial Day to hit marginal new price highs—though, to be fair, there hasn’t been much power and the relative performance line (not shown in the chart below) is still well shy of its pre-GTA delay, early-May peak. The fundamental backdrop here is as good as ever—while GTA VI isn’t being released until next May, we think this could be a case (like a drug stock) where the market discounts lots of good news ahead of the release. And let’s not forget the firm is more than just GTA, with some solid results likely in the quarters to come thanks to other new releases. Similar to PLTR, if you wanted to nibble here, you could, but we’ll simply hang onto our half-sized stake here, waiting for more power to develop. HOLD

Toast (TOST)—TOST has been building a nice, tight launching pad for weeks—and early this week we saw shares ramp toward the old highs. But what happened Wednesday and this morning was a yellow flag, with shares not just backing off a bit (which is par for the course in this environment) but having their worst day since the market downturn yesterday on very big volume and then falling to the 50-day line this morning. Now, shares did find support there, which is a good sign, but we do have our antennae up. We would say that the payment sector as a whole has seen weakness of late due to fears that stablecoins (a type of crypto tied to a stable asset like the U.S. dollar) could take share from the payment networks down the road, so it’s possible this dip could prove to be the final shakeout. Even so, after weeks of no progress, the rejection at the recent highs has us moving to Hold tonight and keeping our half-sized stake on a tight leash. HOLD

Uber (UBER)—UBER’s been tedious since mid-May, and last week’s Robotaxi-induced test of the 50-day line and the early-June lows looked iffy—but shares came to life on Tuesday, rallying right back to the May high on a huge pickup in volume, and today they actually briefly tapped new highs! Waymo (owned by Google) began autonomous trials in Atlanta in partnership with Uber, which was supposedly a reason for the initial ramp, while a rumored deal where Uber could provide funding for an autonomous player caused a brief buying rush. The action is very encouraging, though we would point out that the wild moves on autonomous driving news and rumors aren’t ideal, as a “bad” Robotaxi (or whatever) headline could bring the sellers back. Even so, after 15 months of no net progress and with a very bullish bookings and free cash flow outlook, we continue to think UBER can begin a new, fresh, sustained run as big investors focus on results and the firm’s autonomous partnerships. Given the big turnaround this week, we’re going to average up, though we’ll do so in a slightly smaller way given the news-driven action: We’ll add another 3% position to our stake here, while keeping a mental stop a bit below 80 for the combined position, which makes for a good risk-reward situation. BUY ANOTHER 3% POSITION

Watch List

• Amer Sports (AS 38): AS is now nearly five weeks into a very tight post-earnings consolidation, which looks like a normal rest period following the stunning comeback from the depths of early April. It’s not the biggest growth story out there, but this newer issue (public February 2024) has a couple of outdoor apparel brands that could get much larger (especially in Asia).
• CoreWeave (CRWV 158): CRWV remains in a steep uptrend, though it’s taking on some water of late. We’ll see if the 25-day line (near 143) can catch up and offer support. We’ll continue to keep an eye on it.
• Dutch Bros. (BROS 67): Nobody is talking about it (a good thing), but BROS continues to build a normal-looking launching pad, with some support of late near the 50-day line. We think the stock will eventually get going, but we’re waiting to see a change in character first.
• Guardant Health (GH 50): GH returned to its old highs a couple of weeks ago, and since then it’s ... just sat there, continually battling with round-number resistance near 50 but also refusing to give up any ground. Medical stocks still aren’t thriving, but a decisive breakout here would be tempting.
• Life360 (LIF 61): There’s definitely risk with LIF given its still-developing sponsorship and lower liquidity, but we think the story is outstanding, with even its huge base of free users now being monetized by an ever-growing advertising business. Like many names, it’s been marking time for most of this month after massive pre- and post-earnings moves in April-May.

Other Stocks of Interest

Cameco (CCJ 74)—The AI-induced electricity boom is not a secret anymore, but it’s also not something that looks like a short-term trend—odds favor that we’re at the front end of a multi-year cycle of higher electricity needs (also bolstered by green energy as well as a recent executive order that has the U.S. government looking to build nuclear reactors), which has everyone scrambling for equipment (like that from GE Vernova, which we’re starting a position) and any methods available to meet the demand. Long dormant as a growth industry, nuclear power is seeing a new dawn, and while there are many smaller, speculative players (often with little to no revenue) that are popping, Cameco looks like the institutional play (more than 1,400 funds own shares) in a group that should do well as more big investors truly embrace the sector. The Canadian outfit had revenues of around $3 billion in the past year thanks to its integrated nuclear business that includes majority stakes in three big-producing mines (including the largest high-grade uranium mine, as well as the world’s highest-grade uranium mine—Cameco has 17% market share of global uranium production), plenty of tier 2 mines it’s keeping idle (for now), the world’s largest commercial uranium refinery, Canada’s only uranium conversion facility and even a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric, which provides specialized products to the nuclear power sector, including small modular reactors. Global trends remain in great shape even before AI hits the mainstream (61 reactors under construction, with both spot and long-term uranium pricing having more than doubled over the past four years), though Cameco puts a lot of emphasis on long-term deals, with both market-based and automatic pricing adjustments over time (it has an average of 28 million pounds per year of deals inked for 2025 through 2029, which would account for most of this year’s expected sales output of 32 million or so)—and as prices rise, its deals will continue to reflect that (realized prices were up 9% in U.S. dollars in Q1). The numbers here can be lumpy, and exchange rates can mess with things, but the trends in the business are clearly up, and the stock is very strong—CCJ has been soaring since the market low, hitting new highs in recent days. It’s extended to the upside, but odds favor the next pullback or rest period will be buyable.

Chewy (CHWY 43)—Chewy has become something like the Amazon of pet food and supplies, with over 20 million active customers who represent more than one-fifth of all U.S. pet households. It’s a simple idea, and it’s been successful, with the big customer base very loyal, often ordering via AutoShip, which is sort of like Subscribe & Save from Amazon; in fact, AutoShip revenue makes up 82% of Chewy’s total and is growing nearly twice as fast (up 15% in the quarter ending in May, vs. total revenue up 8%) as the non-recurring parts of the business. Obviously, the sector the firm operates in offers some defensive growth characteristics (pet food is basically a staple, especially for mid- to higher-end households that use Chewy), but the stock has been strong for two other reasons. The first being that the top brass is now running a much tighter ship: After years of higher sales but lots of red ink and cash outflows, the company’s productivity has lifted in recent years, allowing EBITDA and free cash flow to push nicely higher—EBITDA and free cash flow should both grow a bit more than 20% this year, even as the top line inches ahead in the low single digits. And that sort of thing should keep up for a while, with the top brass targeting 10% EBITDA margins (up from just 5.6% this year) down the road, which will keep the bottom-line metrics growing. However, the second factor here is just as interesting: Chewy has recently started to move into the veterinary services (Chewy VetCare), which is a massive $40 billion market and represents a quarter of the pet market; to be fair, this venture is just getting off the ground (11 clinics in four states), but there should be 8 to 10 new openings this year, and management said early results are much better than expected. (The firm’s dominant brand in the marketplace certainly should help attract clients.) One analyst sees about $500k of EBITDA per location as they mature (payback from initial costs in three to four years; could be conservative), with Chewy likely opening at least 15 to 20 and possibly (through M&A) many more than that annually, helping growth to accelerate for the overall company. There’s also a growing ad business and a new higher-end membership they’re testing out. The overall view here is that Chewy’s bottom-line metrics should grow at 20%-plus rates this year and next, and there should be huge upside down the road (discounted ahead of time by the market, of course) if the Vet business starts to become a meaningful contributor. CHWY handled itself well during the market’s meltdown this spring and was one of the first names to ramp to new recovery highs—before it got slapped around on earnings two weeks ago. Still, shares have held support and are sneaking higher—a bit more upside would tell you the rally is likely resuming.

Nvidia (NVDA 155)—Nvidia needs no introduction, as it’s been the flag-bearer of the growth area of the market for many years, especially since the 2022 low, as the firm’s AI chips caused a step-function-type rise in sales and earnings the past two years (33 cents per share in 2022 to $2.99 last year). However, even the best stocks don’t go up in a straight line forever; names like Cisco in the 1990s (one of the biggest winners of all time) regularly took many months or over a year grinding sideways-to-down before resuming their upmove. And that’s really the reason we’re writing up Nvidia today: Fundamentally, all remains in great shape with the company, as demand for the firm’s newer Blackwell chips (far faster AI training and performance, with better energy consumption, than the previous iteration, dubbed Hopper) has been super-strong, and the firm is already working on the next-generation AI platform (Rubin), too; all told, analysts see earnings up 45% this fiscal year (ending in January 2026) and another 32% next, both of which are likely conservative. To be fair, there has been some deceleration of growth, which is probably the reason the stock, for all the headlines it gets, hasn’t done anything for a full year! Indeed, shares essentially peaked at 141 in June of last year (it made marginal new highs in the fall, but only by a few points), and after two big corrections (including a drop to what was then 11-month lows in April), shares were at the same level earlier this month as that prior top. But in this case, we’re seeing that as a good thing—it’s likely the year of nothingness and the two sharp corrections reset the overall advance—and now NVDA looks like it’s changing character, with a strong off-the-bottom move, some tight action during the past three weeks and, now, nosing out to new all-time price highs. (It’s also on pace for 9 of 10 weeks up, which is a sign of persistent institutional buying.) Yes, some selling after the recent pop is possible given that many stocks are finding selling near the old highs—but following a big rest period, it’s possible NVDA is finally resuming its overall advance.

Big-Picture Sentiment Remains Enticingly Bullish

The most bullish thing when looking at the overall market evidence is the setup that’s in place—as we wrote on page 1, it seems like the first half of this year (really, going back to December) has been one, big setup, with a topping phase; the tariff-induced crash that brought panic selling; the big rally back that featured unusual strength (including the Three Day Thrust and the more recent 20% gain in two months, written about last issue); and now a month of relatively quiet, tight trading just shy of new highs (for the big-cap indexes, anyway).

Playing into that is sentiment, which, because of the headline-grabbing nature of the market decline, tanked in the spring. But what’s interesting—and very encouraging—is that despite the solid action since the lows, many of the big-picture sentiment measures we look at remain subdued at best, telling us both individual and big investors are still playing it safe … which in turn means there should be plenty of money on the sideline to drive the market higher over time.

(These big-picture indicators don’t change overnight, with gradual moves over many months—we find them to be more reliable background indicators than the daily put-call ratios and whatnot that swing around based on the news of the day.)

For institutional investors, one of our favorite indicators we look at is the Bank of America monthly survey of fund managers, many of whom are macro global investors. There are lots of interesting charts each month, but the one we track closest is the composite sentiment model, which combines everyone’s cash level, equity allocation and growth expectations, and then plots it on a scale of 0 (most bearish) to 10 (most bullish) throughout history. You can see that, even after the May bounce, the reading is sitting in the 2 to 3 range and not far from 25-year lows!

For individuals, one less-talked-about measure we look at each month is the Schwab Trading Activity Index (its roots go back to TD Ameritrade before it was gobbled up by Schwab), which is a proprietary reading of holdings, trading activity and other information to determine how aggressively (or not) its clients are positioned. The chart here isn’t as long-term as the one above (only back to 2019), but you can see Schwab’s clientele are nearly as cautious as they were back in late 2022 (after that year’s bear market) and the 2020 pandemic crash.

Of course, we look at other things that aren’t quite as slow-moving, but most of those point to uneasiness as well—the Investors Intelligence survey of advisors is the granddaddy of sentiment indicators, and after the percent of bullish advisors dipped to 17-year lows in April (back to 2008!), they still total less than 40%, far below 50%-plus seen in bull markets and 60% or so when things are truly giddy.

As always, sentiment is a secondary factor—what counts most is the action of the market and of leading growth stocks. But the fact that (a) the market itself has seen such a good-looking multi-month setup, (b) many longer-term signposts (like the blastoff indicators in May and June and our Cabot Trend Lines) are bullish and (b) big-picture sentiment is still scraping bottom all points to good things down the road.

Never Underestimate a Mega-Cap Name that Gaps Up Huge on Earnings

Oracle (ORCL)

We’re writing about two mega-cap names in this issue (Nvidia appeared earlier), which is unusual for us; we prefer looking for emerging blue chips that are earlier in their growth phase. But we can occasionally dabble in that area if something dramatic is going on, such as a massive gap up on earnings on unusual volume. When you see this from a huge, liquid stock, it’s an obvious sign that tons of gigantic funds are piling in—and usually that buying persists for months if not longer.

That may be what’s going on with Oracle (ORCL), the usually slow-growing software and database firm (earnings up in the single digits each of the past four years) whose new cloud and AI hosting business is changing the face of the company. Indeed, in the recent quarter (ended May), overall sales lifted 11% (though it was the fastest growth rate in at least a couple of years) and earnings were up 4% (higher spending crimped margins), which weren’t anything to write home about.

But its cloud infrastructure platform (its public cloud platform where clients can build and run applications and even AI systems) is booming—in the past year, revenue growth in this segment was 50%, and better yet, the firm sees growth accelerating to 70% in the next 12 months. For the firm as a whole, the money due to Oracle down the road that’s under contract (remaining performance obligations) grew 41% in the recent quarter—and should double in the next 12 months even with the big revenue growth! There’s obviously competition from big players, but Oracle’s offerings obviously work better with its database systems, and it’s apparently able to offer services for less than others.

To be fair, CapEx here is going to be big as the firm builds out data centers and the like, which could keep earnings growth under wraps, but big investors clearly are putting more weight on the accelerating outlook: ORCL boomed to new highs, with two straight giant-volume buying days (they were the 3^rd and 4^th highest volume days of the past three-plus years). ORCL isn’t going to be the fastest horse, but we do think it could surprise on the upside in the months ahead, possibly joining the “Mag 7” ranks as big investors pile in.

Cabot Market Timing Indicators

The top-down evidence has been very bullish for many weeks at this point, with the relatively recent Cabot Trend Lines buy signal joining the bullish Tides, Two-Second Indicator and Aggression Index. And now we’re seeing a few more leaders perk up, which is obviously a good sign, prompting us to put more money to work tonight.

Cabot Trend Lines – Bullish
Our Cabot Trend Lines remain on their new buy signal, with the S&P 500 (by nearly 5%) and Nasdaq (by 7%) holding clearly above their respective 35-week moving averages. The next test will be the prior highs, which both indexes are testing now—we can’t rule out some near-term shaking and baking (possibly a move to new highs followed by a quick dip?), but with the major trend up and some blastoff indicators (from May and early June) in effect, the odds favor higher prices in the months ahead.

Cabot Tides – Bullish
Our Cabot Tides also remain in good shape, with all five indexes (including the S&P 400 Midcap, shown here) holding north of their lower (50-day) moving averages. To be fair, the broader measures (like the 400 Midcap) are lagging their bigger-cap peers, but all indexes have a few percent of daylight above their 50-day line. With both the long- and intermediate-term trends pointed up, you should remain bullish.

Two-Second Indicator – Positive
Our Two-Second Indicator did flare up a bit during the Middle East tensions of late, but the readings never really took off (the peak was “only” 60), the indexes and leaders hung in there, and now we see the number of new lows easing. If the figures start to rise again in concert with the indexes moving to new highs, that could be cause for concern—but at this point, the broad market remains in good health.

The next Cabot Growth Investor issue will be published on July 10, 2025.

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