VRNS, PINS, TXG, SPT, BILL, NET, ALTR, UPWK, FRPT, HUBS, FOUR, LYFT
Yesterday was a bloodbath for growth stocks as concerns of rising rates and high valuations continue to put pressure on these types of stocks. Earnings season has also been a disaster for many growth stocks as “sell the news” has been the trend. Part of me thinks there is programmatic trading going on here as a negative reaction has just become too consistent. But still, overall, the positive momentum from April has been wiped out here in May for many players.
That’s not to say there are no bright spots out there. There certainly are. In our portfolio Atricure (ATRC), Freshpet (FRPT), Altair (ALTR) and more look solid. It’s mainly that this was a big week for software stocks and, man, did these reports mostly land with a thud.
Today we’ll cover recent earnings reports. We’re also going to lighten up on a few positions as we must respect the broad market trends.
First up is Varonis (VRNS), which hasn’t done well since reporting (it’s not an outlier in terms of software on that score). I like the stock, the report was good and we’ll come back to it for sure. But with a 28% gain here and the stock now below previous support it seems time to move on for now. SELL
Next up is Pinterest (PINS), which continues to be weak and has dipped below support at 60. This could be a false breakdown as we’re talking a margin of a few dimes, not dollars. But with a current gain of roughly 20% we don’t have a ton of wiggle room here and with a full portfolio it makes sense to trim some positions. We’ll come back to Pinterest at some point. But let’s lock in the gain now and move on. SELL REMAINING HALF
On to earnings reports.
10x Genomics (TXG) reported that Q1 revenue grew 47% to $105.8 million, driven largely by consumables sales to supply a growing installed base of instruments. Management stuck with previous full-year revenue guidance of $480 to $500 million (up 61% to 67%). For those investors still not convinced that even “good” isn’t nearly good enough, TXG’s performance today should serve as a wake-up call (stock down double digits after reporting). The “issue” is that, while 10x’s results were modestly ahead of consensus, expectations were just too high. Management pointed to lingering Covid headwinds (recall Q1 ended March 31, not yesterday) with labs running at roughly 90% of normal levels. There were some regional issues as well, with Europe slower than the Americas and Canada slowed by delayed government funding. Stepping back, the stock reaction is a blow to confidence. But as Morgan Stanley said, stronger performance is a matter of “when, not if” for 10x. Today’s reaction seems overdone to me (said more strongly, the term “stupid” has popped into my head) given there really aren’t any red flags here. Still, we need to respect the stock’s action. Moving to hold. HOLD
Sprout Social (SPT) reported that Q1 revenue grew by 33.6% to $40.8 million (beating by $1.1 million) while adjusted EPS of -$0.05 (which beat by $0.05) improved by 64% over a loss of -$0.14 in the year ago quarter. Customers grew from 24,083 to 28,122 over the last year and new customers signed in Q1 included Performance Food Groups, Danaher, Oliver Wyman and Brother International, while deal expansions were signed with Hanes Brans, Tumi, Sur La Table, McKesson, Cole Haan, Grammarly and more. Management also raised 2021 guidance and now forecasts 32% revenue growth ($176 to $177 million) and an adjusted EPS loss of around -$0.35. Both figures are ahead of consensus, which was at $170 million in revenue and a loss of -$0.37. This result is very solid and supports my view that Sprout is one of those software stocks that can continue to do well even in the face of the selling pressure that’s preventing many peers from performing these days. I’m not saying the stock is going to 100 in the next month or anything like that, but there is enough here to keep leaning bullish and look further down the road, when I expect SPT will trade materially higher. Social is becoming a bigger and bigger part of the mix for businesses, and that trend isn’t going to reverse anytime soon. BUY
Bill.com (BILL) is up around 15% today after reporting that Q3 fiscal 2021 revenue grew 45% to $59.7 million (beating by $5.1 million). Adjusted EPS of -$0.02 beat by $0.05. Guidance for Q4 of $61.5 million (at the midpoint) is above consensus of $57.3 million. The company’s planned acquisition of Divvy is also seen as a positive that will help spur mid-market growth given Divvy’s expense card management solution. Analyst reactions are largely very positive. Keeping at buy but noting that broader performance from software peers may be needed for BILL to keep running higher after this. It might be another stock that trades sideways for a spell. BUY
Cloudflare (NET) reported that Q1 revenue grew 51% to $138 million (beating by $7.1 million) while adjusted EPS of -$0.03 met expectations. Paying customer count grew 34% (the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth) to almost 120,000 and dollar-based net retention increased to a record high 123%, aided by large customer growth. Big picture, this is another stock that’s being pressured by investors’ lower willingness to pay for high growth multiple stocks. With the stock looking range bound we will hold on, but won’t hesitate to take more off the table if NET falters. HOLD
Altair (ALTR) reported that Q1 revenue grew 14.3% to $150.2 million (beating by $10.7 million) while adjusted EPS of $0.31 beat by $0.10. It was a good start to the year for a company that tends to see relatively strong performance in Q1. Confirmation that the recovery continues is good, and management’s commentary around a few bigger deals than previously expected and an overall improving global backdrop are also positive. An analyst day is on tap for May 27. Altair’s report was rewarded with price target increases from JP Morgan, Goldman and Barenberg (in the 69 to 85 range). We’ll stick with it. BUY
Upwork (UPWK) reported that Q1 revenue grew by 36.6% to $113.6 million (beating by $6.4 million) while adjusted EPS of $0.03 improved from a loss of -$0.03 in the year-ago quarter. Full-year guidance of $480 million to $490 million was raised, and is above consensus. Overall it was a good quarter but, as with so many software stocks, multiple compression is the issue. As a result, many firms lowered their price targets (though targets are still well above where UPWK is now). Given the mix of good results but poor stock reaction and that UPWK is trading near support we’ll move to hold here. HOLD
Freshpet (FRPT) delivered a fine Q1 but missed expectations. Revenue was up 33.3% to $93.4 million (missing by $600K) while GAAP EPS of -$0.26 missed by $0.23. Still, management maintained full-year guidance and flagged lack of supply as being a current, but temporary, issue. Baird and JP Morgan push price targets higher, to 210 and 199, respectively, while Goldman isn’t convinced but still pushed up its target to 132. FRPT’s chart is telling us, as it has before, that the long-term uptrend remains intact. Suggest buying on the dip. BUY
HubSpot (HUBS) is holding up relatively well after reporting that Q1 revenue grew by 41.4% to $281.4 million (beating by $17.5 million). Adjusted EPS of $0.31 grew 3% and beat by $0.02. Subscriptions were strong and record customer additions (up 45% to 113,925) helped as well. The new Operations Hub landed 500 customers in the first 10 days, suggesting yet another successful new platform addition. The report, the stock’s relatively solid reaction, and price target increases from analysts all suggest HUBS can continue to do its job for us. BUY
Shift4 (FOUR) delivered Q1 revenue growth of 20% (to $239.3 million), beating by almost $2 million, but adjusted EPS of -$0.13 missed by a whopping $0.14, largely because of a $5.2 million charge related to customer chargebacks owing to the pandemic-driven failure of a specialty retail merchant. Management raised its 2021 outlook on most metrics and says volumes in restaurants and hotels are still quite low (no surprise there). As we move into spring, summer and fall this business still has a lot of room to recover. Management says it sees end payment volume this year of around $44 - $46 million (up from $36 - $38 million previously), implying 85% growth. The huge selloff yesterday was nothing short of shocking, and was probably driven by computers and/or investors not looking past the reasons for the EPS miss before selling. For those that acted fast they could have made at least 10% as FOUR is now up near 88, well above yesterday’s low of 75. On balance, after such a volatile day it’s not a screaming buy, so we’ll stick with our hold rating for now. HOLD
Lyft (LYFT) has sold off due to the Biden administration withdrawing the Trump-era independent contractor rule, making it potentially more expensive for certain gig economy companies (LYFT, UBER, etc.) to handle their workforce (i.e. they may need to pay more benefits). This is a dicey issue as, on the one hand, a lot of these workers really seem to be working for themselves, just on Lyft’s platform. But then when there’s a recession or, say, a pandemic, and they don’t have any work there’s no financial support from the company. Beyond all that noise, Lyft reported Q1 revenue of $609 million (down 36%, but ahead of consensus) and management said demand was higher than driver supply. That drove pricing up, which is good, but at the same time driver supply may cap the pace of recovery here in the near-term, until more drivers get fully vaccinated. Also on the horizon is the expected sunsetting of federal unemployment benefits, which trail off in the third quarter. This could bring more workers back to the table. Altogether it was a choppy quarter and will continue to be so for another 2-3 quarters. But ultimately, ride-sharing should come back strong and as a pure-play provider Lyft is the most leveraged to the recovery trend. Let’s stick with it. Buy on weakness. BUY