Cabot Dividend Investor Issue: April 9, 2025

With Crisis Comes Opportunity

The S&P crashed more than 5% on consecutive days last week for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. The index came within a whisker of a bear market, down 20% from the high on a closing basis. Markets have stabilized so far this week, but we might not be out of the woods yet.

It’s easy to get spooked out of the market these days. Treacherous markets prompt similar fears to an earthquake. It’s always in the back of your mind that this could be “the big one.” This could be the crash that ruins stocks forever.

Few people believe the market has hit bottom when it does. Unheeded warnings play over in your mind as Judgement Day seems to have arrived. Stocks were overvalued. The trade war will cause a global recession. Excesses of the last several decades are being called. It’s time to get out of the market and save yourself.

Markets are emotionally driven in the short term. Fear and greed tend to be the dominant forces. But over time, emotions take a back seat to money and profits. When the market tanks, our emotions tell us to run for the hills. But history tells us it’s the best time to invest.

This won’t be the end of days. Markets always come back. In fact, the faster they fall, the faster they come back. This will be no exception. Stocks will rally again, and greed will return as the prevailing emotion.

Consider the recent pandemic bear market. The world was ending. The S&P 500 crashed 34% in just a month. Let’s say you invested back then with the worst timing possible, and you bought the S&P index at the closing high before the trouble started. Since then, that investment would have provided a total return of 79% through the end of this past March.

And that’s with the worst possible market timing over the last decade. Of course, if you purchased the index after it started falling, your returns would be much higher. Let’s say you got into the market too early. If you stepped up and purchased the S&P index after it had fallen 15%, with much more downside left. You would have gotten a 110% return through the end of this past March.

Returns would have been good over time even with the worst timing. If you stepped up and purchased the index when it was lower, but your timing still stunk, you would have done even better. This has been the case with every severe market selloff over the last 50 years. The uglier things are when you step up and buy into a falling market, the better you will do over time.

Yet very few investors are willing to buy into a falling market. History shows clearly that doing so might be the easiest money you’ll ever make. But nobody seems to want any. Let’s not make that mistake this time.

There are some truly stellar stocks in the portfolio that have generated returns comparable to the most successful stocks on the market. The problem is that these stocks are rarely cheap. But the recent market has put these phenomenal investments back within reach.

The recent panic has provided a rare entry point. Even if prices fall further before they rise, these stocks can easily make up for lost time when they move higher again. In this issue, I highlight two of the best stocks in the market to own at valuations not seen in years.

What to Do Now

The S&P 500 is dangerously close to bear market territory. In fact, it dipped below 20% from the high on an intraday basis on Monday. While the market has come off the low and stabilized somewhat so far this week, the selling may not be over. A bad headline can still tank the market any day.

But even if the market has already hit bottom, it is unlikely to generate lasting upside traction until there is more clarity on the tariff issues. Such clarity could be weeks or even months away. While I don’t know how long the current market turmoil will last, it will surely end at some point. It always does.

Although this isn’t a bear market yet, and we may not get there, it’s worth reviewing a few important facts about bear markets at this point. It’s easy to lose perspective when it looks like everything is going to Hell in a handbag. Maybe a historical reminder will be of use to you.

Bear markets are quite common. Since 1928, there have been 22 bear markets, according to Standard & Poor’s Corporation. That’s about one every four and a half years. But markets always come back. It’s just a question of how long it will take. Of course, the faster a market falls into bear market territory from the high, the faster it usually recovers.

Despite the periodic dips, stocks have trended overwhelmingly higher. In fact, over the last 50 years, the average annual return for the S&P 500 is roughly 11.95% (assuming dividends are reinvested). At that rate, the value of an investment doubles in a little over 6 years. That’s why we put up with bear markets.

According to First Trust/Bloomberg, since 1942, the average bear market has lasted 11.1 months with a -31.7% decline, while the average bull market has lasted 4.3 years with an average gain of 150%.

Look at the above chart. It’s a visual representation of bull and bear markets over nearly 100 years. As you can see, the market is in the blue bull territory much more than it’s in the red territory. In fact, it’s been a bull market about 80% of the time. And the long-term returns stated above occur just by riding the market index through all markets. You can see from the chart that the red bear market zones are the best time to buy. If you stepped up and purchased the index during bear markets, you would have gotten much higher returns.

But it’s tough to invest when the financial press is relentlessly negative. I don’t know how long this tariff uncertainty will endure. But eventually the likely outcome will be lower overall tariffs on the U.S. There are also tax cuts in the works along with intense deregulation and encouragement of energy production. The market likes those things. And stocks are a lot cheaper. When we get beyond the worst of the tariff uncertainty, the market should be poised to rally.

Most portfolio stocks are not BUY-rated despite the dip. There is still a high risk of more downside. The only BUY-rated stocks are some energy stocks, which should come right back, and the two highlighted stocks this month. I made an exception for the two best stocks in the portfolio and am highlighting them here. The reason is that these stocks only become great bargains in tumultuous markets like this.

I don’t want you to miss the opportunity, especially because these two stocks can move higher quickly. Even if there is more downside, they can easily make up for it when they get moving again. From a little bit of a longer-term perspective, today’s prices can become once-in-a-blue-moon bargains.

Recent Activity

March 12
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Purchased Waste Management, Inc. (WM) - $223

March 19
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

March 26
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

April 2
AGNC Investment Corporation (AGNC) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

April 9
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Constellation Energy (CEG) - Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) - Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

Featured Action

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) is a pharmaceutical giant that has delivered staggering returns. Since it was added to the portfolio in August of 2020, LLY had delivered 473% as of the end of March. LLY delivered an average annual return of 30% over the past 10 years and a 43% average annual return over the last three. It has a beta of just 0.50, meaning it is only half as volatile as the S&P 500.

But LLY has taken a big hit in the recent market. As of early April, it was down 7% over the last year. The recent panic selling takes everything down. But there are good reasons to believe that LLY will continue its phenomenal performance going forward.

Indiana-based Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company with over $45 billion in annual revenue, 41,000 employees, and sales in 110 countries. Founded in 1876, Lilly is noteworthy for its unusually high focus on research and development (R&D), where it allocates over 25% of sales compared to an average of high teens for the industry.

The R&D focus pays off, as Lilly has arguably the very best pipeline and lineup of recently launched drugs in the industry. The catalyst for the stock recently has been the potential mega-blockbuster weight-loss drugs. Its new weight-loss drug Zepbound and its other diabetes drug combined delivered over $5 billion in revenue last quarter. And the drug is new. Plus, Alzheimer’s disease drug donanemab also has mega-blockbuster potential.

In the fourth quarter, Zepbound and Mounjaro generated a whopping $5.4 billion. The company reported revenue growth of 45% for the quarter and EPS growth of 102%. For the full year, revenue grew 32% and earnings grew 101%.

The company is expected to generate 80% earnings growth in 2025. But there is another potentially huge catalyst in the works. It has a weight-loss drug in late-stage trials that is taken orally. The current drugs on the market require an injection. It could be a game-changer in the white-hot weight loss drug arena.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

Few stocks have benefited from the artificial intelligence craze like AVGO has. In the spring of 2023, Nvidia (NVDA) reported blowout earnings thanks to demand for its AI chips, which blew away expectations. That’s when the AI craze got real in terms of bottom lines and stock prices. Other AI stocks also took off, including AVGO.

Broadcom is a global technology infrastructure leader and an industry Goliath, with $51 billion in annual net revenues. It’s an icon of the technology revolution with roots that trace back over 50 years, to the old AT&T/Bell Labs. The company has many category-leading products in semiconductors and infrastructure software solutions.

Broadcom provides components that enable networks to operate together and communicate with each other, from the service provider all the way to the end user and device. The company is an early comer to the technology party, providing crucial infrastructure that enables other technologies that come along the way. The company is so entrenched in the infrastructure of today’s technology that 90% of internet traffic uses Broadcom’s systems.

Broadcom benefits from AI in a brilliant way. It makes generative AI chips. These chips don’t provide AI functions per se, but rather the technology that enables AI to connect to all other systems — which it must, to be of any use. The sheer volume increases from the new technology, as well as soaring demand for the next generations of its chips, should enable Broadcom to achieve a much higher level of profit growth for years to come.

Prior to the DeepSeek announcement in late January, the price of AVGO had doubled over the prior year and returned 300% since the spring of 2023. The company got a huge bump last year when it announced a 10-for-1 stock split. The stock also soared when the earnings report in December knocked it out of the park.

Broadcom soundly beat expectations. But it was the positive AI comments by management that really juiced the stock. The company said demand for its AI chip (XPU) is booming and expects it to generate revenues between $60 billion and $90 billion by 2027. Revenue from the chip was $12.2 billion in fiscal 2024. The report captured the imagination of investors, and the stock soared 42% in the two days that followed and joined the “Magnificent Seven” stocks as the only stocks with market capitalization over $1 trillion at the time.

But the stock had a comeuppance. The DeepSeek news in late January accelerated a selloff in technology as investors feared there might be less demand for AI than previously anticipated. AVGO plunged 40% from the high and was down over 33% YTD by early April. But I believe most of the decline is the result of the stock being dragged down by the technology sector and the unwinding of the AI trade. The company has a rare niche where its infrastructure position is nearly impossible to duplicate. The March earnings report proved that point.

Broadcom soundly beat expectations with 25% revenue growth and 45% earnings growth and raised guidance for the current quarter. The even bigger news was that AI revenue grew 77% over last year’s quarter, and the company reported that it has scored two more large AI chip customers. AVGO soared 8.64% on the day following the report in an otherwise tough market for the sector.

The report also raised most AI-related stocks by providing evidence that the AI market is alive and well as businesses continue to invest heavily and view AI as a top priority. AVGO had risen earlier for a good reason: soaring revenues. The latest report is a strong indication that the lofty revenue targets will be achieved.

Broadcom is a huge beneficiary of the AI catalyst that will drive earnings higher for years to come. AVGO has also been a victim of a market overreaction combined with panic over tariffs. Recent factors have temporarily created a situation where you can buy one of the best stocks on the market at a dirt-cheap price ahead of a golden age for the company.

Portfolio Recap

AGNC Investment Corporation (AGNC – yield 16.0%) – The mortgage REIT hit a 52-week low after rallying near the high back in February. This market is decimating just about everything. Individually, the falling 10-year Treasury rate narrows the spread that AGNC earns. It benefits from lower short-term rates but not the longer-term ones. The stock should recover when the market stabilizes, as it has started to do over the last couple of days. AGNC has had a bad run over the last couple of years and it’s due for a significant turnaround. HOLD

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Next ex-div date: April 30, 2025

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP – yield 6.2%) – After a rough couple of years of inflation and rising interest rates, BIP has only managed to go sideways since the environment improved. It’s disappointing. The upside of this underperforming stock is that it’s defensive. But it sold down along with everything else in the recent turmoil. BIP better show some chops soon or it will be cut loose. It’s perplexing because the business is sound. Earnings beat expectations with 8% FFO (funds from operations) growth for 2024. Brookfield also announced a 6% distribution increase, marking the 16^th consecutive year of payout increases. The business is delivering, but the stock price isn’t. (This security generates a K1 form at tax time.) HOLD

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP)
Next ex-div date: May 31, 2025, est.

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP – yield 5.6%) – This LNG exporter partnership has been very resilient. It easily endured the tough market and actually made a new high about a week ago, until it plunged along with everything else in the past week. But it’s back up strongly over the last couple of days. It seems like a stock that wants to go higher and likely will whenever the market isn’t going to Hell in a handbag. U.S. exports of LNG are likely to continue to grow strongly despite the trade war as energy is crucial, and CQP is in a great position. (This security generates a K1 form at tax time.) HOLD

Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP)
Next ex-div date: May 10, 2025, est.

Enterprise Product Partners (EPD – yield 6.9%) – Even this stable midstream energy partnership took a hit in the recent market. Nothing is safe when there is indiscriminate selling. But it is rebounding this week. Enterprise reported solid earnings with 7% earnings growth for the year and a 5% distribution hike, marking the 26^th consecutive year of an increase. I will be very surprised if EPD doesn’t get back to its good form when the market stabilizes. In the meantime, it pays you well to wait. (This security generates a K1 form at tax time.) BUY

Enterprise Product Partners (EPD)
Next ex-div date: April 30, 2025, est.

FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK – yield 14.4%) – This Business Development Company (BDC) is cyclical, having a portfolio of small companies, and it suffers when there is angst regarding the economy. It plunged along with everything else last week. But it’s up sharply so far this week. If a recession is avoided or the economic narrative doesn’t get ugly, FSK should be okay. It really pays you to wait things out with a better than 14% yield. It will continue to be held for now. Future performance will depend on the economy. HOLD

FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK)
Next ex-div date: June 20, 2025, est.

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN – yield 8.2%) – As a BDC, this story is very similar to that of FSK, although the stock hasn’t been quite as resilient. MAIN pulled back sharply in late February and early March but was moving back up until last week. Main’s portfolio of companies not only makes high-interest loans, but it also takes equity stakes. The equity stakes are the primary reason the total returns have been better than just about every other BDC. If the economy hangs on, the BDC should continue to deliver, but if a slowing economy becomes an increasing problem, the stock price will fall from here. HOLD

Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)
Next ex-div date: April 20, 2025, est.

Rating change - “BUY” to “HOLD”

ONEOK Inc. (OKE – yield 5.1%) – OKE tends to be more volatile than the other midstream companies in the portfolio. For much of the past few years, that has been a good thing. But lately it’s been a very bad thing. It fell over 20% just last week. Of course, it is rebounding strongly so far this week. I’m very bullish on midstream energy companies over the longer term, especially the ones that specialize in natural gas. When the market stabilizes, OKE should be back to its winning ways. But OKE has shown no resilience in an ugly market that could get worse before it gets better. HOLD

ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
Next ex-div date: May 3, 2025, est.

The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB – yield 3.7%) – This midstream energy stock has been bouncing around since November. WMB had just made a new high at the beginning of this month until it got pummeled along with everything else. But it has been moving higher this week, and the recent selloff looks like another typical bounce on the chart. The stock didn’t stay down even when the market got dicey. WMB looks like it wants to go higher and probably will when the market gets better. I still like midstream energy for the rest of this year. BUY

Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
Next ex-div date: June 15, 2025, est.

AbbVie (ABBV – yield 3.5%) – ABBV had been a solid performer in a mostly rotten market. But it didn’t hold up in last week’s bloodbath. The more cyclical companies that took the biggest hit have been rebounding so far this week while ABBV is still floundering. I’m still very bullish on the stock over the course of this year and beyond as the company has finally moved beyond the Humira patent issue as new drugs have replaced peak revenue. The patent issue had been holding the stock back, and now it should move higher. The stock could benefit if investors gravitate toward more defensive stocks after the recent market turmoil. HOLD

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Next ex-div date: April 15, 2025

Rating change – “BUY” to “HOLD”

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY – yield 3.7%) – Despite an impressive rebound so far this week, ALLY is too cyclical for the current level of uncertainty in the market, and it is downgraded to “HOLD.” It had been holding strong until last week and had positive returns YTD. If the economy holds on and we avoid a recession, ALLY should do well. But it specializes in auto loans which could be a problem if the economic prognosis turns south. It could also be affected by the tariffs. However, if the economy hangs in there or economic news gets better, it could really take off. HOLD

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)
Next ex-div date: April 30, 2025, est.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO – yield 1.6%) – AVGO was a high-flying AI beneficiary that was up the most in the good markets and down the most in the bad ones. It got further crucified last week. AVGO began this week down over 30% YTD and more than 50% from the high. It has mounted an impressive comeback so far this week, though. The stock was up for a good reason: soaring revenues.

Broadcom is a huge beneficiary of the AI catalyst that will drive earnings higher for years to come. AVGO has also been a victim of a market overreaction combined with panic over tariffs. Recent factors have temporarily created a situation where you can buy one of the best stocks on the market at a dirt-cheap price ahead of a golden age for the company. BUY

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
Next ex-div date: June 20, 2025, est.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG – yield 1.0%) – The liquid natural gas exporter had been trending higher since the election, despite a pullback in the second half of January. But it couldn’t hold up against the selling last week. The price fell over 10%. Yet, LNG regained most of that loss already in the early part of this week and it actually has a positive YTD return. The company and the stock should have a bright future as demand for natural gas overseas is likely to remain strong and growing. But it is an exporter at a time when trade war talk dominates the news. HOLD

Cheniere Energy. Inc. (LNG)
Next ex-div date: May 8, 2025, est.

Rating change - “BUY” to “HOLD”

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG – yield 0.9%) – CEG had been climbing nicely off the recent bottom for a couple of weeks until it got kicked in the teeth again last week. CEG is a stock that tends to go down more in bad markets and up more in good ones. It’s having a strong rebound so far this week. The selling is likely overdone. CEG could fly again in a better market. Electricity demand is sure to grow. The two huge recent deals (the Microsoft (MSFT) deal and the Calpine acquisition) will deliver a high level of earnings growth in the years ahead and there may be more new deals coming. The market will generate lasting upside traction at some point, and CEG can come back fast. But right now it’s in free fall, so I’m downgrading to Hold. HOLD

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Next ex-div date: June 7, 2025, est.

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR – yield 3.5%) – Technology is selling off and DLR is taking a beating. It soared while other REITs floundered when technology was high. Now, it’s paying the price. This data center REIT has been a good investment since it was added to the portfolio. DLR moved sharply lower since late November. The weakness should end when the technology sector recovers. DLR probably got a little too high too fast. But the future still looks extremely bright. Data center growth will continue to be a strong trend as the recent troubles probably fade into memory. HOLD

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR)
Next ex-div date: June 15, 2025, est.

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY – yield 0.8%) – Even this superstar drug company stock took a beating last week. It’s up so far this week, but the more cyclical companies are up more. Since it was added to the portfolio in August of 2020, LLY had delivered 473% gains as of the end of March. LLY delivered an average annual return of 30% over the past 10 years and a 43% average annual return over the last three. It has a beta of just 0.50, meaning it is only half as volatile as the S&P 500. But it started this week down over 8% for the past year.

The company is expected to generate 80% earnings growth in 2025. But there is another potentially huge catalyst in the works. It has a weight-loss drug in late-stage trials that is taken orally. Rarely is there a chance to buy this company cheap. The recent market has created a great entry point. BUY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Next ex-div date: May 15, 2025, est.

McKesson Corporation (MCK – yield 0.4%) – This supply chain pharmaceutical distributor stock was quietly soaring to a long series of new highs in a tough market before last week. The stock had been knocked down last summer and fall after the company reported supply chain issues with weight-loss drugs. But those problems are behind the company. MCK has resumed its old habit of slowly going higher and higher as it deals in a market that grows all by itself because of the aging population. I believe it will resume moving higher in a more stable market. BUY

McKesson Corporation (MCK)
Next ex-div date: June 3, 2025, est.

Rating change – “BUY” to “HOLD”

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM – yield 2.2%) – Technology has not been a good place to be. QCOM had been holding up okay because it wasn’t riding high before the market rolled over. But last week took no prisoners and QCOM got whacked. It made a new 52-week low on Monday morning and then bounced back. I like the prospects for the mobile device chipmaker for the rest of this year and beyond. But the next several days and weeks are anybody’s guess. It will be downgraded until the market stabilizes to the point of less volatility and more sustainable upside traction. HOLD

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Next ex-div date: June 6, 2025, est.

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL – yield 1.0%) – The luxury homebuilder stock actually fared alright in the recent market crash. That’s probably because the stock was beaten to a pulp before the tariff selloff. It also actually benefits from the current situation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since early October. That means mortgage rates will likely fall, which should improve affordability and home demand. The longer-term supply/demand dynamic is hugely favorable to this company, and it will rebound eventually. HOLD

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Next ex-div date: April 11, 2025

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH – yield 1.6%) – The health insurer stock jumped on Tuesday on news that the government reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage Plans will be larger than previously expected for 2026. UNH was knocked back last year because of a series of problems, one of which this news alleviates. But the bigger story is the stock’s performance in the rough market. UNH is actually up sharply in April and has been trending sharply higher since late February. It shows some strong defensive chops and is great to have in markets like this. HOLD

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)
Next ex-div date: June 10, 2025, est.

Waste Management, Inc. (WM – yield 1.5%) – The garbage king was going strong until last week. But it was only down because the indiscriminate selling took down everything. WM has been showing strong defensive chops and actually made a 52-week high earlier this month. You can depend on garbage. As the market plunges and uncertainty swirls, investors are attracted to safety, and the relative performance of stocks like WM tends to thrive. Of course, this stock also has a good track record in bull markets. It’s a good holding for when the market turns around, too. BUY

Waste Management, Inc. (WM)
Next ex-div date: June 15, 2025, est.

NextEra Energy (NEE – yield 3.4%) – Even the safe stocks took a hit. NEE had been solid until the last few days. When the market selling gets that bad, just about every stock gets punished. But NEE should have less downside than the overall market from here. And it should be a desirable stock when investors come back to buying and demand more safety. NEE has also performed well in strong markets. I think NEE will be higher in the months ahead and should provide a smoother rise than most stocks. BUY

NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)
Next ex-div date: May 31, 2025, est.

USB Depository Shares (USB-PS – yield 6.0%) – Markets like this are a good time to be in fixed income. Longer-term interest rates are falling and that should have the effect of increasing the price eventually. The ten-year fell below 4% earlier this week but has moved back up to 4.2% in the market rally. This preferred stock has endured a tough bond market and should thrive in a good one. BUY

USB Depository Shares (USB-PS)
Next ex-div date: April 15, 2025

Vanguard Long-Term Corp. Bd. Index Fund (VCLT – yield 5.2%) – Ditto for VCLT. The long-term corporate bond ETF loves falling interest rates and hates rising ones. There will be more price pressure if rates continue to rise and vice versa. But the situation over the course of the year should be good for fixed income as the main risk at this point is a slowing economy. BUY

Vanguard Long-Term Corp. Bd. Index Fd. (VCLT)
Next ex-div date: May 1, 2025, est.

Dividend Calendar

Ex-Dividend Dates are in RED and italics. Dividend Payments Dates are in GREEN. Confirmed dates are in bold, all other dates are estimated. See the Guide to Cabot Dividend Investor for an explanation of how dates are estimated.

The next Cabot Dividend Investor issue will be published on May 14, 2025.

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