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Cannabis Investor
Profit from the Best Cannabis Stocks
Issues
Our main Cabot Cannabis Investor portfolio has vastly outperformed this year, with a 38% gain as of the March 26 close. That was 15 percentage points better than the 22.8% gain for the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index. We’ve done 31 percentage points better than the 7.1% gains this year in the S&P 500.

Our Cabot Cannabis Plus Insider Portfolio is up 42.6% since I launched it on March 29 last year. That’s more than twice the 16.8% gain in the Russell 2000 index over the same time.
In my last update on February 14, I suggested cannabis stocks had fallen enough to be buyable ahead of the expected rescheduling catalyst. That was an opportune entry point.

As of the close February 23, the AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis (MSOS) and the leveraged version, AdvisorShares MSOS 2X Daily (MSOX), were up 12% and 20%, respectively.

Then investors got impatient again with the lack of progress on catalysts. As of the close February 27, 2024, volatile cannabis stocks had given back most of these gains. The MSOS was up 2.4% and the MSOX was up 1.7%. I think cannabis stocks have weakened enough to consider adding again (more on this below).
Our Cabot Cannabis Investor portfolio is up 35% this year. That’s more than 10 times the 3% gain for the S&P 500.

The broader cannabis sector has done well too, but not quite as well as our Cabot Cannabis Investor portfolio of the 12 best names in the space.

The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index and the ETFMG Alternative Harvest exchange traded fund (MJ) are up 14.5%. We’re up more than twice as much.

Our Cannabis Plus Insider Portfolio is up 39.3% since I launched it on March 29 last year. Here we have outperformed the market by threefold. The 39.3% advance compares to gains of 12.7% for the Russell 2000 index, and 22.3% for the S&P 500 over the same time. The smid-cap Russell 2000 is a more appropriate comp than large-cap names in the S&P 500. This portfolio invests in cannabis related companies that have the right kind of insider buying, and do not touch the plant.
Our cannabis trades continue to perform very well, beating the market by more than tenfold since the last update, depending on the index position considered.

The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis (MSOS), is up 10.5%, and the AdvisorShares MSOS 2X Daily (MSOX) is up 18.7% since I last suggested getting long cannabis on December 13. I suggested both as proxies for the sector, at the time.
Cabot Cannabis Investor has delivered several excellent trades in the past month.

* Back on October 31 I was very bullish on the cannabis group which was weak because of the nomination of Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) as House speaker. He has always opposed cannabis legislation. I argued there were several other catalysts in the mix regardless of how Congress acted on legal reforms. “Cannabis stocks are a strong buy in the weakness,” I wrote.

I suggested any of the names in our portfolio, or the AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis (MSOS) exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the leveraged version, AdvisorShares MSOS 2x Daily (MSOX), for simplicity. “I am adding to MSOS and MSOX in the weakness, and I will continue to add, particularly if they get weaker from here.” Since October 31, here’s how those trades have done.
Cannabis stocks are trading like a group in need of a catalyst.

* The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis (MSOS) exchange traded fund (ETF) has fallen 28% from the peak of the rally caused by last summer’s news of federal government progress on rescheduling.

* The AdvisorShares MSOS 2x Daily (MSOX) ETF is down 38%.

Will the group see a catalyst soon? I put odds at much higher than 50%. This makes cannabis stocks a buy in the current retreat, both for a trade but also as a medium-term, multiyear position.
The Senate banking committee is likely to approve key cannabis sector banking reform today.


Approval would be a significant catalyst for the group. So, it may spark a tradable rally.


Short-term traders may want to sell the strength in this volatile group. Another option would be to de-lever cannabis exposure by selling a portion of AdvisorShares MSOS 2x Daily ETF (MSOX) holdings and swapping the funds into the unlevered version, AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF (MSOS). That maintains exposure to the group in front of expected catalysts ahead but dampens some portfolio volatility.
One down, one to go.

Cannabis stocks soared today (August 30) on news that Health and Human Services (HHS) recommends cannabis get downgraded to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act, from Schedule I.

I predicted this a few days ago on the Cabot website, and in my last Cabot Cannabis Investor update on August 9.
Politicians in Washington, D.C. let cannabis investors down once again.

Commentary from lobbyists and Senators had suggested the Senate banking committee might make progress on cannabis sector banking reform (allowing banks to work with companies) in late July.

That turned out not to be the case. I cautioned at the time that a risk here is that the actions of politicians are hard to predict. But it was worth having exposure, in case there actually was progress on so-called SAFE banking, which seemed possible at the time.
There is a potentially nice trading opportunity setting up in cannabis near-term.

When Washington, D.C. lawmakers return from their July 4th break on July 10, they are likely to get down to serious business on the SAFE Banking Act.

This proposed law would boost investor interest in the space because it would allow banks to work with cannabis companies. This would help cannabis companies in several ways.
Now that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is officially in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, it’s worth knowing more about his views on cannabis policy.


After all, DeSantis will now play an even bigger part in the election debates, even if polls say DeSantis has a slim chance against frontrunner Donald Trump. His voice matters – since cannabis is such a politically driven sector.



The bottom line: DeSantis offers a mixed picture, but it’s not all bad for cannabis investors.
After another month of dramatic declines in March, cannabis stocks showed a little more stability in April.

This is encouraging, even though it is never really possible to “call the bottom” in out-of-favor groups.

How out of favor is cannabis? I’ve invested through three bear markets, and I don’t think I have ever seen a group as unloved as cannabis is now. Remember, this is a good thing if you are a contrarian investor looking for bargains, as long as the group in question is not a value trap. (Like the declining newspaper industry years ago, a value trap that Warren Buffett got caught in.)
Updates
Since I last wrote to you on February 28, cannabis stocks have fallen nearly 14%, using the AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis (MSOS) as a proxy for the group.

There are certainly good reasons why “the doubts” have crept back into the minds of cannabis investors, which I will explain in a second. But my take is that by now, the concerns may be fully priced in, so the group looks like a solid buy.
It sounds heartless to say, but successful investing is largely about exploiting the emotions of others.

The two biggest emotions to exploit in the market are obviously fear and greed. When investors are too fearful, it pays to exploit that emotion by betting the other way. And vice versa for greed.

Another common emotion to exploit is impatience.
Back on December 27 I suggested holding off on cannabis sector purchases given the group strength at the time. We had realized nice gains, and it did not make sense to chase the stocks. “I prefer to add on weakness rather than strength,” I wrote. I recommended adding on weakness of 2% to 4% or more in any of our portfolio names.

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) and AdvisorShares MSOS 2X Daily (MSOX) exchange traded funds (ETFs) closed that day at 6.93 and 3.60, respectively, and went on to fall 4.5% to 9% over the next few trading days.
There are three big developments in the cannabis space to report.

* A buyout of one of our portfolio names, which nets us 105% gains in four months.

* A confirmation that the Biden administration is serious about some major cannabis reform, which would be a huge catalyst for the group.

* A buyable selloff. Cannabis stocks sold off sharply Tuesday probably based on false fears that rescheduling won’t happen. I think that’s wrong, and the weakness is a buy.
Cannabis stocks are up 10%-20% since I encouraged you to buy them on weakness in my last update on October 31.

That’s a nice short-term gain – much better than the 5.5% S&P 500 advance over the same time.
I hope you participated.

Traders may want to book profits. The stocks are strong this morning on news that Ohio voters approved a referendum on recreational use legalization. This rally could reverse. However, cannabis stocks are still down sharply from the rescheduling rally last summer. I suggest continuing to stay long in the midst of the overall weakness since that rescheduling news rally last summer.
Cannabis stocks are astonishingly weak following the nomination of Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) as House speaker. He has always opposed cannabis legislation. So, the fear is that Secure and Fair Enforcement Regulation (SAFER) Banking Act reform (allowing banks to serve cannabis companies) cannot get out of the House. This is probably true. However, Senate leaders could put the reform in must-pass legislation, and the House may well accept it, given how many current House members have approved the bill in the past.
Cannabis stocks have retreated from recent highs in the rally sparked by news that the government may reschedule marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act.

Retraces are perfectly normal after big moves. Many traders typically expect a 33% give-back.

The key question is whether the pullback is buyable. I say yes, for two reasons – one fundamental (catalysts, below) and one technical. Let’s start with the technical factor.
After the close Friday, we learned that the Senate banking committee has scheduled a vote on key cannabis sector banking reform on September 27.

Of course, we do not know that the committee will stick to its schedule. But it is likely, so I will assume that will be the case. This timing suggests a possible course of action for cannabis holdings.
Monday after the close, sources close to the Senate banking committee said the panel will delay its vote on key cannabis banking reform known as the SAFE Banking Act. Some investors had expected the vote to happen next week. This update probably helps explain sector weakness Tuesday.
You are receiving this unscheduled update due to recent strength in cannabis names. Your regularly scheduled update will be published on September 13.

For all of the past year, I have been steadfastly bullish on cannabis names. The group was hated, but several underlying trends told us that was likely to change. This set it up as an ideal contrarian play.

Now, the steady buying I’ve been suggesting is paying off.
At least four states posted record cannabis sales in June and July, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Missouri.

These sales trends and ongoing legalization around the world are why global cannabis sales will hit $104 billion a year by 2030, says a recent report from Vantage Market Research. That would represent an annual growth of 26% a year from 2023 to 2030.

Despite these positive trends, cannabis stocks are being held back by delays in reform efforts in Washington, D.C.
In a letter outlining his near-term agenda, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) says passing bank reform favoring the cannabis sector is a top priority.

The letter to Senate colleagues confirms what lobbyists and cannabis company executives have been reiterating for the past several weeks: July could be a turning point for the group, offering legislative developments that push marijuana stocks much higher.

This sets up cannabis as a potentially good short-term swing trade, but it also confirms the bullish long-term prospects for the group.
Alerts
Cannabis stocks are up sharply – 20% or more – since I suggested buying them on weakness in a Cabot Cannabis Investor update sent to you on January 10.

Using my two favorite exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as proxies for the sector, the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) has advanced 20%, and AdvisorShares MSOS 2X Daily (MSOX) is up 37%.
Cannabis stocks are screaming higher this morning. Our AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) ETF is up over 8%. Three of our portfolio names are up even more, 9% to 15%.
Election results set up some key potential catalysts for our cannabis stocks, both near term and further down the road.


Above all, a Republican takeover of control of the House of Representatives increases the odds that we will see very near-term passage of favorable banking reform, known as the Secure and Fair Enforcement Act, or SAFE Banking Act.
Back on October 7 intraday, I recommended selling our entire position in Tilray Brands (TLRY) at 3.47; our entire position in ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) at 5.48; $7,000 of Curaleaf (CURLF) at 6.33; and $7,000 of Green Thumb (GTBIF) at 13.35.
Our cannabis stocks rose nicely yesterday on news that President Biden has asked the Justice Department (DOJ) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to review marijuana’s federal scheduling status.
Greetings. I’d like to intro myself as the new editor of Cabot Sector Xpress Cannabis Advisor.
Thanks to the huge 17-month downtrend that ended in late June, cannabis stocks are all very good values today. The best ones to buy are the ones that have been trending up since early July. Those are rated buy below.
The good news today is that the bottom seems to have passed, for both the broad market and stocks in the cannabis sector. The S&P 500 was down 25% at the bottom, while the cannabis index was down 84% at the bottom—and for both, that seems enough.
For many months, I’ve been telling you what a bargain the leading cannabis stocks have become, and now it appears that increasing numbers of investors have come to the same conclusion, as selected stocks have lifted off their bottoms, with some even climbing above their 25-day moving averages.
Patience is a valuable attribute for sailors who are waiting for the wind to change. And patience is a key attribute for long-term investors. Investors who are impatient are the ones who sell at the bottom and then sit on the sidelines as stocks move back up.



So patience is what I continue to counsel for readers with losses in the stocks in our portfolio.

There’s no doubt about it: this market stinks.


Every major index has been hitting new lows, the news is terrible (raging inflation and soaring interest rates), and investors have grown increasingly fearful, as the profits of 2021 have quickly evaporated in the bear market of 2022.

Given that today’s date is 4/20, I feel compelled to acknowledge that that’s the code for “time to smoke pot.” But I don’t have any jokes. This is serious business. And it’s doubly serious because we’ve been dealing with a weak sector for over a year!

The only bright spot in that trend is that valuations have become more attractive; if this goes on long enough, I expect Cabot’s value analyst Bruce Kaser will recommend one of these stocks!