Latest Summary
CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo remains encouraged by the market’s action, with leadership slowly broadening and his market timing indicators continuing to flip to the bullish side of the fence. Mike advises to extend your line in steps as more stocks emerge and the indexes remain in uptrends. Stocks discussed: DDOG, SHOP, NVDA, EXPE/TRIP/HLT, PHM/TOL, DASH, MSTR, ONTO, NVO?, ATI, ARGX, GTLB, ESTC eps, SNOW
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week on Street Check, Chris and Brad get a head start on holiday shopping and identify six stocks to consider adding to your Black Friday shopping list. The stocks range from fast food, discount retailers and e-commerce to classic toys, consumer electronics and luxury goods. They also spend a few minutes talking turkey (literally) before a visit from some diminutive special guests.
Cabot Webinar
Mastering Today’s Market: 4 Experts, 4 Top Picks, and a Wealth of Wisdom
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts from October 18, 2023 is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Core member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
PORTFOLIO UPDATES THIS WEEK
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue November 16: The market continues to improve, with our Cabot Tides turning positive earlier this week. Now, not everything is rowing in the same direction, and among growth stocks, the pickings are relatively concentrated, so for now we’re stepping slowly into stocks and building positions rather than cannonballing into the pool—we added a chunk of money earlier this week, and tonight we’re adding one new half-sized stake in a volatile name we’ve been following for a while but has now changed character on the upside.
Elsewhere in tonight’s issue we review all our stocks, dive into many encouraging pieces of secondary evidence and one group that has a history of trending and is showing outsized institutional accumulation right now.
Bi-weekly Update November 22: WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to put money to work, albeit in a step-by-step fashion. From a top-down perspective, our market timing indicators continue to improve, with all three of our key measures (Trend Lines, Tides, Two-Second) now positive. Individual growth stocks are acting well, though many are still repairing the damage of the past few months. Thus, we’re optimistic, but want to see continued improvement to pull us into a heavily invested position. In the Model Portfolio today, we’re going to buy a half-sized position in Arista Networks (ANET) and add another 3% stake to Duolingo (DUOL), leaving us with around 44% in cash.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue November 20: This week’s list has another crop of super-strong charts, and from a variety of industries, too. Our Top Pick isn’t a lightning-fast mover, but it looks like the leader in a group that’s shown exceptional strength off the lows and has a history of trending nicely when conditions are favorable.
Movers & Shakers November 22: So far, it’s been a relatively quiet pre-holiday week, with the big-cap indexes up a bit, the broader indexes flat or down a smidge, and with interest rates also down a little (three to five basis points). We’ll see what happens today after Nvidia’s earnings last night, but suffice it to say that the intermediate-term trend continues to point up.
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue November 7: We discuss recent earnings from our companies and move shares of Sensata Technologies (ST) from Buy to Hold given the company’s lower overall quality compared to our initial understanding.
We also include some thoughts on the current stock market and how rising interest rates and other factors have led investors to unload shares of most companies and riskier companies in particular.
Weekly Update November 21: Most stocks produce lackluster returns. A recent study1 by Hendrick Bessembinder, a professor at Arizona State University’s WP Carey School of Business, looked at U.S. stock market returns from 1926 to 2022. Nearly 60% of all stocks detracted from shareholder value during this time period. From 1926 to 2016, half of the total wealth created in the stock market was produced by only 90 stocks. By 2022, the number was only 72 stocks.
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue November 8: The market has been highly unpredictable over the last several years. Things are too uncertain to make bets on the current outlook. Timing the market and betting on sector rotation is a riverboat gamble. I’d rather bank on prevailing trends that will transcend short-term market gyrations.
There is a strong prevailing positive trend in the energy industry, particularly American energy.
Clean energy is the future, but not the near future. The world will continue to rely overwhelmingly on fossil fuels for at least the rest of this decade and probably much longer. But the world has underinvested in oil and gas exploration and production over the last decade and a half. Global supplies are straining to meet growing demand. The dynamic will last for some time.
Investors are realizing the value of companies and stocks in a sector that had been neglected for many years until recently. While commodity prices will go up and down based on several circumstances, energy companies should benefit over time going forward.
In this issue, I highlight the largest American oil refiner. The stock has been a stellar performer. And the company will continue to benefit from cheaper American oil and a reduced number of refineries.
Weekly Update November 22: Wall Street has decided that interest rates have peaked. And the market loves it. The S&P 500 is up 8.4% so far this month and has made up most of the decline of the prior three months.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue November 15: In the November Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we lean into the strengthening market with a group of companies doing everything from providing security for new AI applications to paving roads in the Sun Belt to making packaged foods for health-conscious consumers, and more.
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue November 21: There has been a dramatic turnaround in the market this month. After falling for three straight months, the S&P 500 has rallied 7.6% in the first three weeks of November. The main reason for the turnaround is interest rates. If the current Wall Street expectation that the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate peaked at 5% is true, it should be positive for stocks, or at least eliminate a big negative.
Weekly Update November 14: This has been a very positive month so far in the market. Will the rally continue?
After three straight down months for the S&P 500 where the index dipped into correction territory (down 10% from the high), the index has turned around and is up over 5% so far in November. The catalyst is the perception that interest rates have peaked.
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue October 25: Much of the art of finding interesting turnaround stocks is looking at catalysts, tracking management changes and searching through lists of out-of-favor companies. Sometimes, however, good ideas can be found closer to home – literally – by looking through the roster of public companies in one’s home state. We discuss five turnarounds underway in our home state of Massachusetts.
Despite near-record gold prices, shares of gold producers remain depressed. We discuss two attractive companies. Our Buy recommendation this month is Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM), a premier gold mining company selling at a discounted price.
Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This investment letter is written for you. A great way to get more out of your letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
Weekly Update November 17: This week’s note includes our comments on earnings from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Macy’s (M), Tyson Foods (TSN) and Vodafone (VOD). The earnings season is winding down, with Kohl’s (KSS) reporting next Tuesday (Nov. 21) and Duluth Holdings (DLTH) reporting on November 30.
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine November: Getting an early head start on a career or trade that you’re passionate about can mean the difference between just punching the clock and doing meaningful work that’s satisfying in its own right. On top of that, you can potentially save hundreds of thousands of dollars on education expenses and make significantly more over the course of your career by tailoring your educational pursuits to match your career goals. This month, we’ll help you outline a blueprint to pursue your dreams while maximizing your earnings, and we’ll discuss the pros and cons of investing in your employer and industry.
Stock of the Month November 9: The markets had a very good week, and so far, we are also seeing momentum in the first couple of trading days this week. These upward moves have taken the Dow Jones Industrial Average to just about where we started at the beginning of 2023.
Last month, inflation edged up to 3.7%, from 3.67%, and the unemployment rate also slightly increased, to 3.9%. The Federal Reserve—for two continuous decisions—kept the Fed Funds rate steady.
ASK THE EXPERTS
Prime Question for Mike: Hi Mike. Still holding both Samsara (IOT) and Shopify (SHOP). I’m now slightly up on both by a couple of percentages points. Wondering if you had any thoughts on those stocks as they stand currently.
Mike: SHOP has gapped and been powerful on the upside, so I’m less willing to ditch that. To be fair, it’s right up into an area of resistance so I’m not against selling if you really want to (or selling some), but the power is noteworthy.
IOT is less impressive. Yes, a couple of good days, but up off its lows. My guess is it could work if the market does, but earnings on December 1 will be important.
All in all, my guess is IF the market has really turned, both could do OK, so I wouldn’t rush out and sell, personally. That said, I get it, and given the run both have had, it’s really more about whether you’re craving the cash or want to move the money elsewhere in the portfolio. I would tend to sell some of both but hold some, too.