Over the past few weeks, I’ve gotten several inquiries about a company called Genius Brands International (GNUS).
GNUS is a micro-cap stock that, year to date at its peak, was up over 2,800%.
As a result, it’s gotten a lot of attention.
Genius Brands is a content and brand management company that creates and licenses multimedia content for toddlers.
Day traders and retail investors got excited about the stock following its press release in early May 2020 that promoted a “Netflix for Kids” type offering called “Kartoon Channel.”
After reviewing GNUS, I want to share my thoughts with all subscribers because the stock is the perfect example of what I avoid when evaluating micro caps.
First, the company is incredibly promotional. This is a major negative. I much prefer a company that “under-promises and overdelivers.” It’s fine to publish a press release when something truly transformational has taken place. But GNUS publishes highly promotional press releases on a weekly or daily basis. Despite announcing “breakthrough” new products over the past five years, the company has failed to deliver substantial revenue growth.
Second, the company has poor financial trends. As shown below, despite touting “transformational” new products and partnerships, the company has failed to generate net income over the past five years. In fact, net loss has widened almost every year.
Third, the number of shares outstanding has grown exponentially.
This means that management has pumped up its stock price via promotional press releases and then sold additional stock, diluting existing shareholders.
Fourth, the stock is incredibly expensive. Currently, GNUS is selling at an EV/Revenue multiple of 101x. Netflix sells at 9.6x while Amazon sells at 4.4x. Thus, GNUS is more than 10 times more expensive than Netflix and Amazon!
Companies like Genius Brands International give micro caps a bad name because investors get sucked into the story, end up losing significant money, and then swear off all micro-cap stocks.
When evaluating micro caps, I’m looking for companies with 1) substantial revenue, cash flow and earnings growth, 2) conservative balance sheets, and 3) inexpensive valuations.
Alright, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, I can step off my soap box and get into the updates for this week!
We do have a couple changes that I want to highlight.
First, I’m increasing my buy limit for P10 Holdings (PIOE) given its strong fundamentals and attractive valuation. The stock has rallied from our initial recommendation price but is still cheap, trading at just 8.4x free cash flow. PIOE’s business is growing and extremely profitable yet it trades at a discount to the market. I’m comfortable buying the stock below 2.50 (up from my prior limit of 2.25).
Second, last week we sold half of our hopTo Inc (HPTO) position. Today I’m switching HPTO back to hold as it has pulled back. If the stock falls back to 0.44 or lower, I will likely upgrade to Buy.
We recently hosted our monthly webinar, and you can watch a replay here. As a reminder, the next issue of Cabot Micro-Cap Insider will be published on Wednesday, July 8, 2020.
If you have any questions that you want me to address, feel free to send me an email at rich@cabotwealth.com.
Changes This Week
Upgrading PIOE to Buy below 2.50
HPTO moves to Hold
Updates
HopTo Inc (HPTO) continues to bounce back and forth between 0.45 and 0.52. There was no news or SEC filings this week. As a reminder, hopTo reported first-quarter results on May 20. Sales declined 21%, which appears very bad at first glance. However, sales for hopTo are typically lumpy on a quarter-by-quarter basis. The 10-Q discloses that the decline was due to timing of revenue recognition and a larger order in Q1 2019 that did not renew. Most importantly, management noted that it expects “sales in 2020 to be similar to sales” in 2019. In other words, management doesn’t expect a decline in sales in 2020 despite the Q1 drop. This is the same language that hopTo used in 2019, when sales grew 13%. As such, I’m not concerned with the headline drop in sales in Q1.
One issue that I will continue to watch relates to the rights offering that hopTo closed in March. As part of the agreement, there was a backstop agreement whereby management and a consortium of accredited investors agreed to purchase at $0.30 per share up to $2.4 million of hopTo stock. Essentially, the backstop agreement is a massive insider buy and bodes very well for the outlook of the stock. That transaction was expected to close in April but the 10-Q indicated that it was not expected to close until May. We haven’t received an update on whether the backstop agreement has closed. If it fails to close, it will be a negative signal for the stock.
Last week, I recommended selling half our position above 0.50. Given that the stock has pulled back to 0.45, we are moving back to a Hold rating on the stock. If the stock falls back to 0.44 or lower, I would likely upgrade to Buy. Hold
Liberated Syndication (LSYN), my most recent recommendation, was down slightly on the week with no news. LSYN is a profitable podcast and website hosting company with $10 million of net cash on its balance sheet growing at a double-digit clip. As the business does not require much capex, it generates significant free cash flow. Despite its high business quality, sticky revenue and secular growth trajectory, LSYN trades at just 8.5x 2019 EBITDA. An activist recently won a proxy fight with management and has undertaken a strategic review for the company. The conclusion is expected to be announced soon. My 6.00 target implies significant upside. Buy under 3.35
Medexus Pharma (PDDPF) reported excellent fiscal fourth-quarter results last week. As a result of the transformative XINITY acquisition, Medexus generated adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 million in the quarter or $16.8 million on an annualized basis. Better yet, revenue grew organically 27%. So clearly there is significant growth ahead. One other positive is that Medexus bought back 919,000 shares (~9% of shares outstanding) in the past fiscal year including 139,400 in the most recent quarter. Based on Medexus’ run rate EBITDA of $16.8 million, the stock is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.1x and an EV/Revenue multiple of 1.0x. It’s even cheaper on forward estimates. Specialty pharma companies trade at an average EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.5x and an EV/Revenue multiple of 3.4x. Buy under 2.50
P10 Holdings (PIOE) was down slightly this week with no news. PIOE reported earnings on April 30. Revenue grew 8% y/y due to additional fundraising by RCP Advisors. Cash earnings stayed flat y/y at $0.04 although that was due to costs related to acquiring Five Points and almost acquiring another private equity manager. RCP Advisors noted it has already raised $165 million of additional capital commitments for its private equity funds. It will launch two more funds this year and Five Points will also begin a new fundraise. Excluding one-time costs, PIOE will generate $0.27 in cash earnings in 2020. As such, PIOE is trading at 8.4x 2020 free cash flow. Given the stock’s strong fundamentals and attractive absolute and relative valuation, I’m upgrading the stock to Buy and increasing our buy limit to 2.50. Buy below 2.50.
Riviera Resources (RVRA) was flat on the week with no news. The next catalyst for the stock would be the announcement of a sale of one of RVRA’s assets. This would likely result in another distribution for investors. RVRA continues to be an attractive long-term holding. It has minimal debt and is generating positive free cash flow. Further, it has a valuable asset in its Blue Mountain midstream business. Once the energy market turns (and it always eventually does), Riviera will be well positioned to benefit. BUY Under 2.25
U.S. Neurological Holdings (USNU) was down slightly on the week on no news. USNU operates as a holding company in the United States. It is engaged in providing medical treatment and diagnostic services that include stereotactic radiosurgery centers, utilizing gamma knife technology, and holds interests in radiological treatment facilities. USNU reported Q1 2020 earnings on May 15. The company generated $0.02 of earnings and $399,000 of free cash flow in the first quarter, and as a result net cash on the company’s balance sheet increased to $1.7 million or $0.22 per share. USNU did note that revenue declined 12% in the quarter, driven by fewer procedures being performed due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Eventually, I would expect deferred procedures to resume. USNU stays at Hold this week, but if it were to drop below 0.20, I would upgrade it to BUY under 0.20. HOLD
Buy means accumulate shares at or around the current price.
Hold means just that; hold what you have. Don’t buy, or sell, shares.
Sell means the original reasons for buying the stock no longer apply, and I recommend exiting the position.
Sell a Half means it’s time to take partial profits. Sell half (or whatever portion feels right to you) to lock in a gain, and hold on to the rest until another ratings change is issued.
Disclosure: Rich Howe owns shares in HPTO, LSYN, PDDPF, PIOE, and RVRA. Rich will only buy shares after he has shared his recommendation with Cabot Micro-Cap Insider members and will follow his rating guidelines.