So far, November’s markets have been a nice respite from the volatility of October, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually gained about 900 points. Investors—for the most part—seem to be ignoring China tariffs, impeachment hearings, and Brexit. And why not? After all, the economy remains strong and sentiment—as you’ll see in our Advisor Sentiment Barometer, as well as in our Market Views—remains very bullish.

The major indexes continue to hit new highs, all Cabot’s market timing indicators remain positive, and our portfolio is solid, with no particular worry spots today. Third-quarter earnings have been good to us.

Of course, that will change, and when it does, we will adjust our stance, but for now, we’re making hay while the sun shines—only downgrading one stock to hold today because it’s gotten too expensive.

As for today’s new recommendation, it’s an undervalued stock in a traditional industry, and paying a solid dividend to boot.

Details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


When we did our research over the weekend, we really liked what we saw: Not only are the intermediate- and longer-term trends up for all the major indexes, the big-cap measures are in new high ground and, perhaps more importantly, we see a ton of recent breakouts acting well across a variety of industries. Combined with prior positive studies, we think the bull move has farther to run. That said, there are some minor worries to keep in mind—short-term sentiment measures are very complacent, and many leaders are also extended for the time being, meaning a rest/shakeout is a growing possibility. We think any pullback will offer up a bunch of solid entries, but in the meantime, it’s best to be a bit choosy on the buy side.

This week’s list has a nice collection of names that have either recently shown rare strength or have run for a few weeks and could make for solid pullback buys. Our Top Pick is Jabil (JBL), which is beginning to retreat after a major long-term breakout and advance.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)	82.24	37-39	33.5-35
Arconic (ARNC)	17.00	29.5-30.5	27-28
Boot Barn (BOOT)	43.24	41-43	37-38
Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)	137.53	98-102	89-91
Jabil Inc. (JBL)	41.50	37-38.5	34.5-35
KBR Inc. (KBR)	30.53	29-30	26.5-27
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)	123.40	110-113	100-102
Oshkosh (OSK)	95.04	88-90.5	80.5-81.5
Peloton (PTON)	53.03	27.5-30	23.5-25
Sea Limited (SE)	132.86	35-37	31.5-32.5

The nature of this newsletter is that 90% of our focus is centered on finding early-stage opportunities and vetting them. But to have investing success – in any type of stocks – over the long haul we must follow some basic portfolio management strategies.

This month I’m laying out five simple tips that you should follow when investing in the stock I feature in these pages. There is nothing that’s super innovative or worth discussing at a cocktail party here. No hedging or options trading techniques. Just solid, basic, common sense tips that will help you reduce risk, increase your probability of success, and sleep better at night.

Despite the headwinds of trade tensions and pundits worrying about China growth, our Explorer portfolio holdings Sea, Alibaba, Luckin Coffee and Huya all reported outstanding financial results this week.

The Emerging Markets (EEM) Timer is still positive as we introduce a new resource recommendation with operations at the very heart of Asia-Pacific growth.

The major indexes continue to hit new highs, all Cabot’s market timing indicators remain positive, and our portfolio is solid, with no particular worry spots today.

Of course, that will change, and when it does, we will adjust our stance, but there’s no predicting where the trouble will come from, so for the moment we’re standing pat with our portfolio, making no changes.

As for today’s new recommendation, it’s in a traditional industry, but growing fast thanks to acquisitions—and on a pullback right now that offers an attractive entry point.

Details in the issue.

Current Market Outlook


The major indexes have now rallied five weeks in a row, with most having at least eked out to new highs during that time. That push higher has created a few short-term yellow flags among overbought and sentiment measures; similar readings during the past few months have preceded multi-week, tedious retreats in the market. What happens this time around will be key: With the trends up and longer-term measures supportive, we’re optimistic the market has changed character for the better, but should the market and leading stocks suffer a deep retreat, that would probably put us back in the soup. In the meantime, we’re going with the evidence, which continues to improve both for the indexes and new leading stocks.

This week’s list has another round of stocks that have recently enjoyed outsized accumulation. It’s a tough choice, but our Top Pick is United Rentals (URI), which looks like a potential leader among cyclical stocks.

Stock Name	Price	Buy Range	Loss Limit
Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)	0.00	66-69	58.5-60
Dexcom (DXCM)	421.36	196-205	177-181
InMode Ltd. (INMD)	38.86	40-43	34-36
Insulet (PODD)	175.69	168-174	154-156
MKS Instruments (MKSI)	109.43	108-112	97-99
State Street (STT)	79.42	69-71	62.5-63.5
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)	818.87	320-335	280-290
United Rentals, Inc. (URI)	0.00	151-156	136-138
Visteon (VC)	89.82	91-95	82-83.5
Winnebago (WGO)	48.56	47.5-49.5	42.5-43.5

We’ve been writing for months that the market’s next big move was likely up, and it now looks like that upmove could be underway, with the major indexes in uptrends, our market timing indicators looking good and little selling pressure recently despite a good run. Short-term, a dip wouldn’t be shocking to see, but the path of least resistance finally appears to be up.

The high-flying AI stocks got crushed on Friday. But those stocks started this week higher. Where do we go from here?

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index fell 4% on Friday, and the S&P 500 fell for the week for the first time in 10 weeks. A couple of things spooked investors. The AI trade turned sour after Broadcom (AVGO) reported earnings that included slightly lower revenue projections for its AI chips than were expected. Also, a blowout jobs report strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year.

A major economic narrative that took shape in recent years was the decline and (presumptive) inevitable death of the so-called “petrodollar,” as a growing number of countries diversified their foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar and toward gold and alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The overall market remains in good shape, though we are seeing some exuberance on the upside and also a few leaders begin to act sloppy. Near term, then, it’s still a coin flip as to what comes, but the vast majority of intermediate-term evidence remains bullish. In the Model Portfolio, we took partial profits in Marvell (MRVL) earlier this week; tonight, we’re buying a half-sized position (5% of the account) in Bloom Energy (BE), which is extremely volatile but also strong and coming off a few weeks of rest. Our cash position will now be around 28%.

This market just keeps going higher.

Sure, there’s uncertainty out there. The war isn’t over. Inflation and interest rates are still too high. But stocks didn’t get the memo. After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30 and are continuing to make new highs this week.

Despite the negative headlines and volatility, stocks just keep going.

After a strong April, the S&P 500 rose 5% and the Nasdaq soared 8% in May. The indexes are up 20% and 30%, respectively, since March 30. It’s also worth noting that despite the ongoing Iran war, the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 17% for the month of May.

This week’s Memorial Day observance marked the traditional onset of the summer vacation season for millions of Americans. It’s a time of traveling, sightseeing, picnics and parties. It’s also the peak season for enjoying cold, carbonated beverages like soda pop and energy drinks.

With this dynamic in play, I think it’s time that we give some attention to our holding in PepsiCo (PEP), which is entering a critical period of its sales year.

On the heels of a miserable March and a euphoric April, I wrote several weeks ago in this space that I thought May would determine which direction the market is truly headed, at least in the intermediate term. We have our answer, and it’s a definitive “up.”

All three major U.S. indexes are touching record highs as of this writing, with the S&P 500 up 4.3% in May, the Nasdaq up 7%, and the slower-moving Dow Jones Industrial inching higher by 1.6%. That’s despite the ongoing Iran war and the accompanying sky-high oil and gas prices, escalating inflation, bond yields at multi-year highs, possible Fed rate hikes later this year, and record-low consumer sentiment.

Stocks have largely shrugged off this week’s dust‑ups in the Middle East as investors continue to bet on a near‑term memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and push bigger sticking points between the U.S. and Iran down the road.

Yields have cooled off this week and continue to do so this morning, thanks to a slightly lower‑than‑expected core PCE reading. April core PCE rose 0.2% month over month, below both March’s 0.3% reading and consensus, giving the Fed some breathing room as policymakers weigh the competing forces of inflation and growth.

The $145 trillion global bond market is under some stress due to runaway debt. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yielded over 5% last week, up from 4.63% at the end of February. Americans are struggling to keep up with their debt payments, as the cost of borrowing money increases. This is a global story. In Japan, the 30-year government bond yield just hit a record of 4.15%, and U.K. government debt jumped to 5.85% earlier this month.

Nothing stops this market. The S&P 500 hit another new high this week.

The spectacular earnings season helped power the rally. Average earnings growth on the S&P 500 is over 28% in the first quarter. That is far better than the expected 13.1% and the highest level of growth for any quarter since 2021.

We’ve all seen it before: the owner of a home in dire need of structural repair decides to “flip” the house for a quick profit by contracting a restoration service. Instead of making sorely needed foundational repairs, the cleanup crew focuses on superficial fixes like painting, tiling, flooring, etc., in hopes that a shiny new veneer will hide the problems that exist beneath the home’s exterior.

Crude though the analogy may be, I think it’s an apt description of what we sometimes encounter as turnaround investors.

WHAT TO DO NOW: The market and especially most leaders have finally shaken out a bit in recent days, and there are some worries we’re watching, including the rise in Treasury rates and the health of the broad market (our Two-Second Indicator is now negative). Even so, the primary evidence remains in good shape, and while this rest phase could easily take longer if the worries persist, the odds favor higher prices down the road. Tonight we’re making one small move: Averaging up on Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), buying another 3% position. Our cash position will be around 34%, which we’ll be looking to put to work should the market continue to act properly.

And our second recommendation is to bank some profits.

In the past month, seven analysts have boosted their earnings forecasts for our first idea.

Three of our stocks reported first quarter earnings. There are no rating changes.

The top five sectors of this fund are: Info Technology 49.2% of net assets; Consumer Discretionary, 21.4%; Health Care, 9.5%; Industrials, 7.9%’ and Financials, 5.1%.

Analysts expect this conglomerate to grow by more than 26% this year.

We have one rating change from Strong Buy to Hold and several earnings announcements coming up.

Motley Fool also likes this restaurant stock, citing its “increasing foot traffic (better than its competition) and its expanding locations (recently added 33).

Analysts expect this company to grow by 39.8% this year.

Dutch auction tender offer on one of the stocks in the Growth portfolio.

The second is a short idea, based on lower earnings.

These two recommendations are Special Situations. The first, is a medical marijuana company, expected to post growth of more than 59% next year.

Four of our stocks reported first quarter earnings.

A few Cabot Options Trader subscribers have asked me about ways to protect gains in their portfolios, so I thought I would write to everyone with a couple of strategies using options to hedge your portfolio.

A subscriber recently asked me if I keep a journal of my trades. Many traders keep journals so they can look back at their trades and evaluate what they did right and what they did wrong.

Want to know how the big institutional investors use options? Here is an example of how one trader spent $132 million on three technology stocks.

Options trading has its own vernacular. To know how to do it, you need to know what every options term means. Here are some of the basics.

Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.